MAKROEKONOMSKI UTJECAJ NA DIONIČKE POVRATE KOMPANIJA U HRVATSKOM UGOSTITELJSTVU

Tourism is one of the most important sectors in the Republic of Croatia. It plays a significant role in its economic development. This research investigates whether the macro-variables have an impact on the stock returns in the hospitality industry. The focus of the work consists in causality relationship between four macro variables (consumer price index, industrial production, exchange rate and number of tourist arrivals) and a stock index composed of Croatian hospitality companies. After applying Granger-causality tests based on the VAR methodology, results suggest that only consumer price index Granger-cause stock returns in the hospitality industry in the observed period from July 2008 to July 2018. Further analysis through impulse response function indicates that the impulse responses of inflation meet expectations in terms of the direction of impact. In the second month, stock prices react negatively to shock, implying that higher inflation causes negative stock price returns. After applying the variance decomposition method, a very low explanatory power of consumer price index on stock returns in the hospitality industry was revealed. This paper contributes to the existing literature on the topic of the impact of macro-economic variables on hospitality stock returns by extending the scope to Croatia and by testing a different set of variables compared to those from previous studies.Turizam je jedan od najvažnijih sektora u Republici Hrvatskoj, te ima značajnu ulogu u ekonomskom razvoju zemlje. U radu se istražuje imaju li makroekonomske varijable utjecaj na dioničke povrate kompanija u hrvatskom ugostiteljstvu. Cilj rada usmjeren je na testiranje kauzalnosti između četiri makrovarijabli (indeksa potrošačkih cijena, industrijske proizvodnje, tečaja i broja ostvarenih turističkih dolazaka) i dioničkog indeksa sastavljenog od hrvatskih ugostiteljskih kompanija. Nakon primjene testa Grangerove uzročnosti bazirane na VAR metodologiji rezultati sugeriraju da indeks potrošačkih cijena utječe na dioničke povrate kompanija u ugostiteljstvu u promatranom vremenskom periodu od srpnja 2008. do srpnja 2018. godine. Primjenom testa impulsnog odziva ispunjava se očekivanje negativnog utjecaja inflacije na kretanje dionica u hrvatskom ugostiteljstvu, naime, u drugom mjesecu cijene dionica negativno reagiraju na „šok” od jedne standardne devijacije. Kako bi analiza bila detaljnija, proveden je test dekompozicije varijance na temelju kojega se može zaključiti da varijabla CPI-ja u vrlo niskom iznosu objašnjava prognostičke pogreške dioničkih povrata u ugostiteljskoj industriji. Rad pridonosi novim spoznajama u postojećoj literaturi na temu utjecaja makroekonomskih varijabli na dioničke povrate kompanija u ugostiteljstvu, proširujući opseg na Hrvatsku te testiranjem različitog seta varijabli u odnosu na varijable iz postojeće literature

PREDVIĐANJE STEČAJA NA TEMELJU UKUPNE POPULACIJE HRVATSKIH PODUZEĆA

This paper analyses the bankruptcy prediction based on the population of companies representative of the total business sector in Croatia. The representativity of the sample is achieved through the propensity score matching of the full population of bankrupt and similar non-bankrupt companies. The robust estimation of bankruptcy prediction is carried out through the multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logistic regression (logit). The results indicate high classification accuracy of both models, but more favourable performance of the logit estimation. Overall accuracy of the MDA model was 73.7%, while the overall accuracy of the logit model was 76.3%. The results serve as a bankruptcy estimation benchmark for the business sector in Croatia.Ovaj rad analizira predviđanje bankrota na temelju pune populacije poduzeća koje predstavljaju ukupni poslovni sektor u Hrvatskoj. Reprezentativnost uzorka postigla se tehnikom uparivanja (propensity score matching) ukupne populacije bankrotiranih i sličnih poduzeća koje nisu u stečaju. Robusna procjena predviđanja bankrota provela se temeljem višestruke diskriminacijske analize (MDA) i logističke regresije (logit). Rezultati su ukazali na visoku točnost klasifikacije oba modela, s naglaskom na povoljniju procjenu uporabom logit metode. Ukupna točnost MDA modela bila je 73,7%, dok je ukupna točnost logit modela bila 76,3%. Rezultati služe kao referentna točka za procjenu bankrota za poslovni sektor u Hrvatskoj

PREDVIĐANJE STEČAJA U RESTORANSKOJ INDUSTRIJI HRVATSKE

Svrha istraživanja ovoga rada je istražiti mogućnost predviđanja stečaja u hrvatskoj restoranskoj industriji. Istraživanje je provedeno u razdoblju 2017.– 2019. godine na uzorku od 297 poslovnih subjekata u stečaju i 308 poslovnih subjekata koji nisu u stečaju, te isti pripadaju području I razred 5610 - Djelatnosti restorana i ostalih objekata za pripremu i usluživanje hrane. Temeljem logističke regresije procijenjen je model s dvije varijable, te je isti pokazao 82,8 % točnosti predviđanja godinu dana prije stečaja, 76,7 % dvije godine prije stečaja i 76,4 % tri godine prije stečaja. Model sugerira da koeficijent vlastitog financiranja (koji pokazuje udio imovine koji se financira iz kapitala) i EBITDA marža (koja ukazuje na EBITDA izraženu u postotku poslovnih prihoda), imaju važnu ulogu u predviđanju stečaja restorana. Ovaj rad pruža nova saznanja u predviđanju stečaja restorana u Hrvatskoj

Portfolio analysis of foreign tourist demand in Croatia

Tourism is currently one of the most important sectors for the economic development of the Republic of Croatia. It mainly focuses on foreigners from within the EU. Because of the dynamic and very competitive tourist market, it is hard to forecast foreign tourism demand nowadays. It can vary over time among tourists of different nationalities. Stability of inbound tourist demand forms an important condition for the development of tourism and foreign currency income. Considering that tourism policy-makers must distribute available resources to different tourism markets for use in promotion, the purpose of this study is to analyze, by country of origin, the number of overnight stays by inbound foreign tourists in accommodation establishments as well as their average daily spending in Croatia and to construct an optimal mixture of tourists of different nationalities that will help tourism policy-makers to optimize or maximize tourism revenues at a certain level of risk. The main idea of this research is to apply financial portfolio theory to Croatian tourism demand and to construct an optimal mixture of foreign inbound tourists when there is an infinite number of possibilities. Several optimal mixes were calculated with different risk/return options to show on which foreign tourist markets Croatia must focus. For example, to achieve the mixture of foreign tourists that provides the highest level of tourist consumption expenditures, tourism authorities should increase their resources on the German, Slovenian, Italian and Austrian markets. The results of this research can easily be modified according to policy maker’s risk/return preferences

Testing the applicability of the Altman\u27s Z-score model for predicting bankruptcy in the Republic of Croatia

Altmanov Z-score jedan je od najpoznatijih modela za predviđanje poslovnih poteškoća odnosno stečaja. Cilj ovog rada je testirati Altmanov Z-score model i utvrditi u kojoj je mjeri primjenjiv u predviđanju stečaja u Republici Hrvatskoj. Testirani ukupni uzorak sa Zagrebačke burze sastojao se od 52 poslovna subjekta, od čega 26 koji su otvorili stečaj i 26 sa stabilnim poslovanjem, te je isti promatran u ukupnom vremenskom razdoblju 2007.–2016. Budući da se testirani uzorak sastojao i od poslovnih subjekata koji ne pripadaju proizvodnom sektoru, u istraživanju je korišten Altmanov revidirani Z\u27\u27-score model. Osim testiranja uspješnosti istog, u radu su se nastojali prilagoditi ponderi Z\u27\u27-score modela primjenom višestruke diskriminantne analize u cilju dobivanja modela koji će biti prilagođeniji hrvatskom tržištu. Radi prisutnosti multikolinearnosti nisu sve varijable zadržane u modelu, te je dobiven model koji ima slabiju uspješnosti od Z\u27\u27-score modela. Rezultati ovog istraživanja ukazuju da je Altmanov Z\u27\u27-score primjenjiv na hrvatskom tržištu, ali se preporuča koristiti ga kao dodatni, a nikako kao osnovni pokazatelj za predviđanje stečaja.Altman`s Z-score model is one of the well-known financial ratios whose purpose is reflected in the possibility of predicting bankruptcy for businesses. The aim of this paper was to test Altman\u27s Z-score model in order to determine whether the model is applicable in the bankruptcy forecasting on the example of Croatian companies. The analysed and tested sample from the Zagreb Stock Exchange was consisted of 52 companies which were divided into two samples: 26 companies which were financially stable and 26 companies that went bankrupt. Sample was observed over the time period 2007–2016 and it was consisted of businesses that do not belong only to the manufacturing sector, therefore it was used Altman\u27s revised Z\u27\u27- score model. Beside analysing its performance, authors in this paper tried to adjust the weights of the Z\u27\u27- score model by applying multiple discriminant analysis in order to obtain a model that would be more tailored to the Croatian market. Due to the presence of multicollinearity, not all variables could be retained, and a model with lower performance was obtained. The results of this research indicates that Altman\u27s Z\u27\u27-score is applicable in the Croatian market, but it is recommended to use it only as an additional, not basic indicator for predicting bankruptcy

Značenje i primena inteligentnih senzora

In this work is defined by the sensor. It is made the division of the sensors and their application. Technology development is very complex. Without the use of sensors is impossible to perform the simplest activities. The paper deals with examining what are the possibilities of production in the domestic market. The introduction of intelligent sensors, sensor is attached to the sophisticated skills, such as compatibility with communications systems improve the logical possibilities.U ovom radu je definisan senzor. Napravljena je podela senzora i njihova primena. Tehnološki razvoj je vrlo složen. Bez upotrebe senzora nemoguće je obavljati najjednostavnije aktivnosti. Rad se bavi ispitivanjem kakve su mogućnosti proizvodnje i na domaćem tržištu. Uvođenjem inteligentnih senzora senzoru se pridodaju sofisticirane sposobnosti, kao što je kompatibilnost sa komunikacionim sistemima, unapređenje logičke mogućnosti

Značenje i primena inteligentnih senzora

In this work is defined by the sensor. It is made the division of the sensors and their application. Technology development is very complex. Without the use of sensors is impossible to perform the simplest activities. The paper deals with examining what are the possibilities of production in the domestic market. The introduction of intelligent sensors, sensor is attached to the sophisticated skills, such as compatibility with communications systems improve the logical possibilities.U ovom radu je definisan senzor. Napravljena je podela senzora i njihova primena. Tehnološki razvoj je vrlo složen. Bez upotrebe senzora nemoguće je obavljati najjednostavnije aktivnosti. Rad se bavi ispitivanjem kakve su mogućnosti proizvodnje i na domaćem tržištu. Uvođenjem inteligentnih senzora senzoru se pridodaju sofisticirane sposobnosti, kao što je kompatibilnost sa komunikacionim sistemima, unapređenje logičke mogućnosti

Novi proizvodi kao odgovor tehnološkim promenama na tržištu

The paper presents and analyzes a new product CMTM's. Selection and evaluation of new products that will succeed in the market depends on the product development process and management companies. Development, testing and marketing a new product is certainly a big undertaking for a company. Production SMART transmitter is an example of how local companies can respond to the demands of competition in the domestic and foreign markets.U radu su prikazani i analizirani novi proizvodi CMTM-a. Izbor novih proizvoda i ocena da će uspeti na tržištu zavisi od procesa razvoja samog proizvoda i menadžmenta preduzeća. Razvoj, ispitivanje i plasman novog proizvoda je svakako veliki poduhvat za jedno preduzeće. Proizvodnja SMART transmitera je primer kako domaća preduzeća mogu da odgovore na zahteve konkurenata na domaćem i stranim tržištima

QFD tools efficiency in business excellence related to small-scale production

An overview of the application of QFD tools through the application of modular architecture in the new product realization is presented in this paper. The QFD application can be considered as an engineering method in the analysis of the buyer's desires and business opportunities in business excellence. The application of modular architecture in product design provides the realization of new and diverse products suitable for re-use as well as for materials recycling. From this point of view, we have tried to explain the significance of the new Lean philosophy from the aspect of re-use of products, reduction of waste and employees’ efficiency increase. In this regard, the QFD tool represents the link between design and production process improvement

Novi proizvodi kao odgovor tehnološkim promenama na tržištu

The paper presents and analyzes a new product CMTM's. Selection and evaluation of new products that will succeed in the market depends on the product development process and management companies. Development, testing and marketing a new product is certainly a big undertaking for a company. Production SMART transmitter is an example of how local companies can respond to the demands of competition in the domestic and foreign markets.U radu su prikazani i analizirani novi proizvodi CMTM-a. Izbor novih proizvoda i ocena da će uspeti na tržištu zavisi od procesa razvoja samog proizvoda i menadžmenta preduzeća. Razvoj, ispitivanje i plasman novog proizvoda je svakako veliki poduhvat za jedno preduzeće. Proizvodnja SMART transmitera je primer kako domaća preduzeća mogu da odgovore na zahteve konkurenata na domaćem i stranim tržištima