Screening for Parkinson’s Disease with Response Time Barriers: A Pilot Study

Background: Although significant response time deficits (both reaction time and movement time) have been identified in numerous studies of patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD), few attempts have been made to evaluate the use of these measures in screening for PD. Methods: Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to identify cutoff scores for a unitweighted composite of two choice response tasks in a sample of 40 patients and 40 healthy participants. These scores were then cross-validated in an independent sample of 20 patients and 20 healthy participants. Results: The unit-weighted movement time composite demonstrated high sensitivity (90%) and specificity (90%) in the identification of PD. Movement time was also significantly correlated (r = 0.59, p \u3c 0.025) with the motor score of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Conclusions: Measures of chronometric speed, assessed without the use of biomechanically complex movements, have a potential role in screening for PD. Furthermore, the significant correlation between movement time and UPDRS motor score suggests that movement time may be useful in the quantification of PD severity

SHIMMER (1.0) : a novel mathematical model for microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefield ecosystems

SHIMMER (Soil biogeocHemIcal Model for Microbial Ecosystem Response) is a new numerical modelling framework which is developed as part of an interdisciplinary, iterative, model-data based approach fully integrating fieldwork and laboratory experiments with model development, testing, and application. SHIMMER is designed to simulate the establishment of microbial biomass and associated biogeochemical cycling during the initial stages of ecosystem development in glacier forefield soils. However, it is also transferable to other extreme ecosystem types (such as desert soils or the surface of glaciers). The model mechanistically describes and predicts transformations in carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus through aggregated components of the microbial community as a set of coupled ordinary differential equations. The rationale for development of the model arises from decades of empirical observation on the initial stages of soil development in glacier forefields. SHIMMER enables a quantitative and process focussed approach to synthesising the existing empirical data and advancing understanding of microbial and biogeochemical dynamics. Here, we provide a detailed description of SHIMMER. The performance of SHIMMER is then tested in two case studies using published data from the Damma Glacier forefield in Switzerland and the Athabasca Glacier in Canada. In addition, a sensitivity analysis helps identify the most sensitive and unconstrained model parameters. Results show that the accumulation of microbial biomass is highly dependent on variation in microbial growth and death rate constants, Q10 values, the active fraction of microbial biomass, and the reactivity of organic matter. The model correctly predicts the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass observed during the initial stages of succession in the forefields of both the case study systems. Simulation results indicate that primary production is responsible for the initial build-up of substrate that subsequently supports heterotrophic growth. However, allochthonous contributions of organic matter are identified as important in sustaining this productiviity. Microbial production in young soils is supported by labile organic matter, whereas carbon stocks in older soils are more refractory. Nitrogen fixing bacteria are responsible for the initial accumulation of available nitrates in the soil. Biogeochemical rates are highly seasonal, as observed in experimental data. The development and application of SHIMMER not only provides important new insights into forefield dynamics, but also highlights aspects of these systems that require further field and laboratory research. The most pressing advances need to come in quantifying nutrient budgets and biogeochemical rates, in exploring seasonality, the fate of allochthonous deposition in relation to autochthonous production, and empirical studies of microbial growth and cell death, to increase understanding of how glacier forefield development contributes to the global biogeochemical cycling and climate in the future

SHIMMER (1.0): a novel mathematical model for microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefield ecosystems

SHIMMER (Soil biogeocHemIcal Model for Microbial Ecosystem Response) is a new numerical modelling framework designed to simulate microbial dynamics and biogeochemical cycling during initial ecosystem development in glacier forefield soils. However, it is also transferable to other extreme ecosystem types (such as desert soils or the surface of glaciers). The rationale for model development arises from decades of empirical observations in glacier forefields, and enables a quantitative and process focussed approach. Here, we provide a detailed description of SHIMMER, test its performance in two case study forefields: the Damma Glacier (Switzerland) and the Athabasca Glacier (Canada) and analyse sensitivity to identify the most sensitive and unconstrained model parameters. Results show that the accumulation of microbial biomass is highly dependent on variation in microbial growth and death rate constants, Q10 values, the active fraction of microbial biomass and the reactivity of organic matter. The model correctly predicts the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass observed during the initial stages of succession in the forefields of both the case study systems. Primary production is responsible for the initial build-up of labile substrate that subsequently supports heterotrophic growth. However, allochthonous contributions of organic matter, and nitrogen fixation, are important in sustaining this productivity. The development and application of SHIMMER also highlights aspects of these systems that require further empirical research: quantifying nutrient budgets and biogeochemical rates, exploring seasonality and microbial growth and cell death. This will lead to increased understanding of how glacier forefields contribute to global biogeochemical cycling and climate under future ice retreat

Impacts of variations in Caspian Sea surface area on catchment-scale and large-scale climate

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the largest inland lake in the world. Large variations in sea level and surface area occurred in the past and are projected for the future. The potential impacts on regional and large-scale hydroclimate are not well understood. Here, we examine the impact of CS area on climate within its catchment and across the northern hemisphere, for the first time with a fully coupled climate model. The Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) is used to simulate the climate of four scenarios: (a) larger than present CS area, (b) current area, (c) smaller than present area, and (d) no-CS scenario. The results reveal large changes in the regional atmospheric water budget. Evaporation (e) over the sea increases with increasing area, while precipitation (P) increases over the south-west CS with increasing area. P-E over the CS catchment decreases as CS surface area increases, indicating a dominant negative lake-evaporation feedback. A larger CS reduces summer surface air temperatures and increases winter temperatures. The impacts extend eastwards, where summer precipitation is enhanced over central Asia and the north-western Pacific experiences warming with reduced winter sea ice. Our results also indicate weakening of the 500-hPa troughs over the northern Pacific with larger CS area. We find a thermal response triggers a southward shift of the upper troposphere jet stream during summer. Our findings establish that changing CS area results in climate impacts of such scope that CS area variations should be incorporated into climate model simulations, including palaeo and future scenarios. © 2021. The Authors

Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims

The arid land invasive weed Nicotiana glauca R. Graham (Solanaceae) : Population and soil seed bank dynamics, seed germination patterns and seedling response to flood and drought

Disturbances in plant communities provide opportunities for weed germination, propagation, spread, and invasion. When the population density of a weed increases, fast-tracked and appropriate control management strategies are required. The objectives of this study were to: (i) examine the population and soil seed bank dynamics of Nicotiana glauca; (ii) compare the germination patterns of invasive N. glauca seeds collected from two states in Australia, and (iii) investigate the impact of a flood in September 1997 and subsequent drought on N. glauca seedlings. The density of N. glauca followed a steep positive increment during the sampling time (September 1999 to October 2004). The increment pattern was similar in flooded fenced and unfenced plots. Plant density increased over much of the observation period, but had declined to 80 and 432 stems ha−1, respectively, by October 2004. Stem density recorded in October 2004 along two transects radiating from the central point of the newly created lake demonstrated that a significant number of stems appeared to be dead. A soil seed bank study revealed that seed density varied significantly (p=0.0001) between flooded fenced (598.75±71) and flooded unfenced (327.5±66) plots. In contrast, no N. glauca seedlings were recruited from the soil collected from the control plots. Germination trials were undertaken on N. glauca seed collected from New South Wales. There was no significance difference detected between treatments light and temperature. Similarly, no interaction was found between light and temperature. A comparative study on seed germination patterns of N. glauca seeds collected from Ivanhoe, New South Wales, and the Flinders Ranges, South Australia, showed that temperature had a significant effect on N. glauca seed germination. The effect varied significantly with main variables (state, length and time) and also with different interactions, except state×light (p=0.3840). N. glauca seedlings exposed to flood were found to withstand partial flooding for at least 58 days. Under waterlogged conditions, the seedlings showed stem hypertrophy and produced adventitious roots. Only one seedling was found dead in the drought treatment. In conclusion, it is clear that N. glauca invaded the area after a rare flood event and began to function as a casual weed. Established seedlings in the field can withstand extreme ecological events such as flood and drought. Understanding the plants’ ecological characteristics through a study such as this at an early rather than late stage in the invasion will help us to take appropriate control measures for this species.C

Screening for Parkinson's disease with response time batteries: A pilot study

BACKGROUND: Although significant response time deficits (both reaction time and movement time) have been identified in numerous studies of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), few attempts have been made to evaluate the use of these measures in screening for PD. METHODS: Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to identify cutoff scores for a unit-weighted composite of two choice response tasks in a sample of 40 patients and 40 healthy participants. These scores were then cross-validated in an independent sample of 20 patients and 20 healthy participants. RESULTS: The unit-weighted movement time composite demonstrated high sensitivity (90%) and specificity (90%) in the identification of PD. Movement time was also significantly correlated (r = 0.59, p < 0.025) with the motor score of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). CONCLUSIONS: Measures of chronometric speed, assessed without the use of biomechanically complex movements, have a potential role in screening for PD. Furthermore, the significant correlation between movement time and UPDRS motor score suggests that movement time may be useful in the quantification of PD severity

Global biome patterns of the Middle and Late Pleistocene

Our primary aim was to assess the hypothesis that distinctive features of the patterns of vegetation change during successive Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles reflect climatic differences arising from forcing differences. We addressed this hypothesis using 207 half-degree resolution global biome pattern simulations, for time slices between 800 and 2 ka, made using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic global vegetation model. Simulations were driven using ice-core atmospheric CO2 concentrations, Earth's obliquity, and outputs from a pre-industrial and 206 palaeoclimate experiments; four additional simulations were driven using projected future CO2 concentrations. Climate experiments were run using HadCM3. Using a rule-based approach, above-ground biomass and leaf area index of LPJ-GUESS plant functional types were used to infer each grid cell's biome. The hypothesis is supported by the palaeobiome simulations. To enable comparisons with the climatic forcing, multivariate analyses were performed of global vegetation pattern dissimilarities between simulations. Results showed generally similar responses to glacial–interglacial climatic variations during each cycle, although no two interglacials or glacials had identical biome patterns. Atmospheric CO2 concentration was the strongest driver of the dissimilarity patterns. Dissimilarities relative to the time slice with the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentration show the log-linear relationship to atmospheric CO2 concentration expected of an index of ecocarbon sensitivity. For each simulation, extent and total above-ground biomass of each biome were calculated globally and for three longitudinal segments corresponding to the major continental regions. Mean and minimum past extents of forest biomes, notably Temperate Summergreen Forest, in the three major continental regions strongly parallel relative tree diversities, hence supporting the hypothesis that past biome extents played an important role in determining present diversity. Albeit that they reflect the climatic consequences only of the faster Earth system components, simulated potential future biome patterns are unlike any during the past 800 ky, and likely will continue to change markedly for millennia if projected CO2 concentrations are realised

Impact of sudden Arctic sea-ice loss on stratospheric polar ozone recovery

We investigate the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere polar ozone recovery to a scenario in which there is rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice in the first half of the 21st century. The issue is addressed by coupling a chemistry climate model to an ocean general circulation model and performing simulations of ozone recovery with, and without, an external perturbation designed to cause a rapid and complete loss of summertime Arctic sea ice. Under this extreme perturbation, the stratospheric response takes the form of a springtime polar cooling which is dynamical rather than radiative in origin, and is caused by reduced wave forcing from the troposphere. The response lags the onset of the sea-ice perturbation by about one decade and lasts for more than two decades, and is associated with an enhanced weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The stratospheric dynamical response leads to a 10 DU reduction in polar column ozone, which is statistically robust. While this represents a modest loss, it has the potential to induce a delay of roughly one decade in Arctic ozone recovery estimates made in the 2006 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion