Le plan chablis : un outil de planification d'urgence et de gestion de crise pour la forêt wallonne.

La DGARNE, souhaitant anticiper une éventuelle tempête de grande ampleur en forêt wallonne, a mis au point un plan de gestion des crises chablis en vue de pouvoir intervenir de manière coordonnée et réduire les impacts négatifs pour la filière bois. Cet article fait suite à des formations sur la phase d'inventaire rapide du plan chablis données dans tous les cantonnements du DNF

Framework for building integrated policies regarding forest risk management: Insights from Wallonia (Belgium)

peer reviewe

Développement d'un outil d'aide à la décision pour la gestion des chablis en Région wallonne

Développement d'un outil d'aide à la décision pour la gestion des chablis en Région wallonn

Un outil d'aide à la décision pour la gestion des chablis en Région wallonne

L'outil d'aide à la décision pour la gestion des chablis est un logiciel informatique qui permet de modéliser le déroulement au cours du temps des différentes opérations de mobilisation des chablis (vente, exploitation, transport, stockage, transformation) et par là même de comparer plusieurs scénarios afin d'en déduire la meilleure stratégie opérationnelle. La principale entrée du système dynamique est le volume de dégâts qui peut être estimé en quelques jours par une méthode d'inventaire rapide. Trente paramètres rentrent actuellement en ligne de compte pour prédire le comportement des différents stocks du systèmes au cours du temps. L'outil a fait l'objet d'une validation auprès de spécialistes et une procédure de veille est actuellement en cours d'élaboration.In order to efficiently manage post-storm damages, we developed a computer software that would be used as a decision support system by the public authorities to make the best decisions as soon as possible after the storm, as well by showing an overview of the present situation as by comparing efficiency of several prospective simulations. The model was built on the basis of previous windthrow events in Europe and its parameters were defined after a full literature review. The system dynamics approach was used to simulate the complex scheme composed by post-storm management operations (inventory, selling, harvesting, transport and transformation). Thirty parameters can be modified by the operator to simulate the crisis situation. The main entry system is the amount of damage, which can be estimated in a very short time (3 days) by using the regional forest inventory network. The first results showed a great potential to predict evolution of a windthrow crisis and the bottlenecks which have to be solved to improve post-storm management. Of course, a validation in real conditions should confirm tool efficiency and possibility to extend its scale

Gestion des conséquences des tempêtes sur la forêt et la filière bois au travers d’approches systémiques et intégrées

Wind is one the most damaging natural hazard that forests are facing worldwide and in Europe. Destructive storms lead to severe forest damage and consequently cause disruptions in daily forest management and timber supply chains. Major dysfunctions can happen at each step of forest-wood chains and at each level of management, leading to huge economic losses and long-lasting crises within public organisations and private companies. In this context, the first part of this work aims at handling those complex and multi-facetted storm-related issues with new approaches in order to mitigate economic, environmental and societal impacts of storms on the forest-based sector. In a first step, an overview of risk management practices in forestry is presented, as well as major determinants of storm damage risk management. SWOT analyses are also used for highlighting main issues and opportunities in current windthrow management process. In a second step, an integrated framework is proposed for tackling those strategic issues and seizing opportunities arising from the uncertain decision-making context. A systemic perspective is also presented for managing storm damage risk at regional, national or supranational level with a holistic perspective. In regards to those original approaches, the thesis also highlights some of the crucial challenges public authorities might address for enhancing their affectivity in this process. In the second part of the manuscript, three particular aspects of storm damage management are considered: contingency planning, the development of decision-supporting tools for the forest community, and timber storage planning at the regional level. Those topics are illustrated by case studies taking place in Wallonia, Belgium. In particular, the development of a model-based decision support system (DSS) illustrate how systemic analysis can help on the one hand designing balanced strategies for the regional forest-based sector in case of severe wind damage and on the other hand identifying bottlenecks that should be solved before the next huge storm to enhance systemic resilience and resistance. Regarding timber conservation, a GIS-based methodology for locating optimal areas for sprinkling storage at the regional scale is presented, together with an applied study on the influence of anaerobic storage process on the quality of spruce logs. From a wider perspective, this thesis reveals that taking decision under uncertainty will remain a key challenge to address in forestry, especially in the context of climatic change. However, original methodologies focusing on systemic and integrated risk management approaches can help in this effort. Finally, the work emphasises the urgent need of effective risk management policies at regional, national, and international levels to guide researchers, forest managers and industrials