Before and After the Fall: New Zealand Economists on the Post-war Unemployment Experience

What explanations did economists advance for New Zealand's remarkable experience of full employment between 1938 and 1980? What causes did they suggest for the breakdown and subsequent massive rise in unemployment? This paper categorises and critically surveys material on these questions as part of a wider project on New Zealand's post-war unemployment experience

Disinflation and Equilbrium Participation Rates Across the OECD

Larry Ball's recent work shows that OECD countries with large and long lasting disinflations during the 1980s had the largest rises in their equilibrium unemployment rates. While supply side factors did not initiate the rises in equilibrium unemployment, Ball finds evidence for an interactive relationship between disinflation and open ended unemployment duration. He concludes that the results support the theory that disinflation has a permanent impact on unemployment (hysteresis) over the theory that there is a unique equilibrium rate of unemployment that is invariant to disinflation (the natural rate hypothesis). A hysteresis theory also implies, in addition to trend unemployment 1ates, that trend labour force participation should be changed by disinflation. The study examines changes in trend participation across twenty OECD countries between 1980 and 1990 and finds confirmation for the prediction of the hysteresis hypothesis. Countries with high disinflation have the smallest rises in trend labour force participation. Some evidence was found in support of an interactive relationship between disinflation and benefit duration. For a given disinflation, the greater the duration of unemployment benefit payments, the smaller the rise in trend labour force participation. The results of both this study and that of Ball raise important issues regarding the current operating structures of monetary policy in New Zealand, based as these are on the natural rate hypothesis

From Mandarin to Valet Public Service? State sector reform and problems of managerialism in the New Zealand public service

Managerialism – the notion that the primary skills required to manage any specific organisation are a generic set of managerial skills – is now widespread in the New Zealand public service. Managerialism was enabled by the 1988 State Sector Act, especially that part establishing the fixed-term contracts and appointments of chief executives. The consequences have been a decline in departmental expertise and a public service which acts as a secretariat for the government of the day. Thus, New Zealand has shifted from a mandarin to a valet public service. Managerialism is identified by top appointees who lack specialist skills and sector experience, short employment durations, and the manner in which the State Services Commission has managed the reform process thus far

Maori Literacy: Its Influence on Earnings and Jobs

In terms of explaining the gap between Maori and non-Maori labour market outcomes, little attention has been given to literacy. Yet the 1977 New Zealand International Adult Literacy Survey showed that Maori tested English literacy was considerably lower than that of non-Maori in Prose, Document and Quantitative domains. The paper examines the links between Maori ethnicity, literacy and employment prospects and levels if earnings using cross-tabulations and multi-variate techniques on unit data

Grease or Sand in the Wheels of Democracy? The market for lobbying in New Zealand

What is the nature of the New Zealand market for political lobbying? Is lobbying grease in the wheels of a well-functioning democracy – adding to overall societal efficiency – as its supporters suggest? Or is lobbying sand, wasting resources in buying redistribution to the powerful and damaging the social fabric essential for a wellfunctioning democratic mixed economy, as opponents of lobbying believe? And, should we regulate lobbying in New Zealand, and why? This article concludes that the question is not whether lobbying should be made more transparent via regulation, but rather how this can best be achieved

Over the Barrel of a Gun? Trust, gun ownership and the pro-gun lobby in New Zealand

The Christchurch attack on 15 March 2019, when 51 Muslims were murdered by a right-wing extremist carrying half a dozen semiautomatic rifles and shotguns, brought the nation’s relaxed gun laws to light. Prior attempts to pass gun safety legislation have been thwarted by groups purporting to represent New Zealand gun owners. However, the swift and decisive political actions in the immediate wake of the attack signalled greater political appetite for meaningful change. Using unique data collected immediately in the wake of the Christchurch attack, this study examines who gun owners are, New Zealanders’ trust in gun owners and the pro-gun lobby, and whether trust differs by gun ownership and political ideology

An Analysis of Disparity Between Pacific and Non-Pacific Peoples' Labour Market Outcomes in the Household Labour Force Survey

Disparity in employment outcomes between Pacific and non-Pacific people is higher today than it was in 1985. The disparity in the employment rate increased substantially between 1986 and 1991, though has been decreasing slowly since. This paper attempts to find reasons for changes in employment rate disparity using cross-tabulated information from the Household Labour Force Survey on region, educational attainment, occupation, industry, length of time lived in New Zealand and working age population size. Our research suggests that a key reason for the increase in disparity was over-representation of Pacific people in sectors that were disproportionately affected by changes in labour demand in the late 1980s. In particular, there was decreasing demand for workers in the manufacturing industry, workers in the occupational grouping 'production and related workers' and workers with no educational qualifications. Higher Pacific population growth may also at times have had an impact on employment disparity

Who’s donating? To whom? Why? Patterns of party political donations in New Zealand under MMP

This article considers the data on donations to New Zealand political parties collected by the Electoral Commission. The purpose is to address who gets what, and why. Relatively small amounts are donated. A little may buy considerable influence. There is limited evidence of strong upward trends in political donations, suggesting a systemic equilibrium. The plurality of donations is received by unsuccessful parties, suggesting that money is insufficient for political success. Most donations come from individuals (mostly men) or families. Cross-political spectrum donations are mostly from businesses and to the two dominant parties, suggesting that businesses are trying to buy the ear of the major power in government

Time Series Analysis of Disparity between Maori and non-Maori Labour Market Outcomes in the Household Labour Force Survey

Disparity in labour market outcomes between Maori and non-Maori is examined using Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data. The paper explores the nature of the ethnicity question and ethnic classification in the HLFS. It shows that there are substantial differences in labour market outcomes between those Maori who report only Maori ethnicity and those who report Maori and another ethnicity ("mixed" Maori). The paper then considers various methods of measuring disparity and uses these to examine the time series behaviour of disparity between 1985 and 1998. It concludes that disparity between Maori and non-Maori is greater today than in 1985. However, all this deterioration occurred between 1985 and 1992. Since 1992 disparity has been in decline. The bulk of time series variation in disparity between Maori and non-Maori has been driven by changes in outcomes for the sole Maori group. Mixed Maori, about a quarter share of the Maori ethnic group, has outcomes which closely track those of the non-Maori population over time

Movements Into and Out of Child Poverty in New Zealand: Results from the Linked Income Supplement

This paper considers the dynamics of child income poverty in New Zealand. Annual movements into and out of poverty by children’s households in New Zealand over the 1997/98, 1998/99, and 1999/2000 periods are analysed. The annual Income Supplement to the Household Labour Force Survey allows tracking of dwellings and people in two consecutive June quarterly weeks, and thus allows observation of changes in equivalised household disposable income over a June year. This project is the first to use the Linked Income Survey for analysis of income dynamics and is part of the Ministry of Social Policy’s ongoing research on family dynamics.New Zealand adult and child poverty transitions are compared. Child poverty transitions in New Zealand are compared and contrasted to those of five other countries—Britain, Germany, Hungary, Russia and Spain—where a similar current income measure of poverty is available. The frequency of poverty “trigger events” in New Zealand and their impact on the chances of children exiting and entering poverty are compared to similar data for Britain and West Germany.child poverty, household income, income mobility