Momentum Effects and Mean Reversion in Real Estate Securities

This article is the winner of the International Real Estate Investment/ Portfolio Management manuscript prize (sponsored by LaSalle Investment Management) presented at the American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. This article tests for the presence of both price continuation and price reversals in international real estate securities. The results reveal evidence of performance persistence in international markets over short and medium term horizons, however the evidence on price reversals is less compelling. The empirical analysis tests for mean reversion using Variance Ratio and Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. In neither case is there consistent evidence of mean reversion in international real estate securities. The portfolio switching tests do reveal some evidence of performance reversals. However, while under-performing markets do outperform over longer horizons, they do not do so at statistically significant levels.

International Real Estate Diversification: Empirical Tests using Hedged Indices

This study examines the potential diversification opportunities arising from the extension of real estate portfolios into an international environment. Using data for ten countries, the article compares the diversification benefits obtained from both real estate securities and hedged indices. The hedged indices are constructed in line with the methodology proposed by Giliberto (1993) and are examined as a potential alternative proxy for the direct market. The results indicate that while benefits do arise from international diversification, the results tend to be statistically significant only when local returns are used and no constraints are imposed on the optimal portfolios. In addition, there are concerns over the reliability of the mean return and correlation coefficients obtained using the hedged indices.

Bayes-Stein Estimators and International Real Estate Asset Allocation

This article re-examines the issue of international diversification in real estate securities and attempts to address the problem of estimation error in the inputted parameters through the use of alternative techniques. The results see an increased stability in calculated portfolio allocations in comparison to the classical mean-variance tangency approach, and see significant improvements in out-of-sample performance. In addition, the minimum variance portfolio significantly outperforms a naive equally-weighted strategy. These results are also largely consistent when transaction costs are incorporated into the analysis.

A Re-Examination of the Inflation-Hedging Ability of Real Estate Securities: Empirical Tests Using International Orthogonalized & Hedged Data

This study re-examines the relationship between real estate securities and inflation in a total of ten international markets. In addition to the raw data, both the orthogonalized and hedged approaches were adopted in order to strip out the general impact of the domestic equity market. The results revealed that there is minimal evidence of a positive relationship between real estate securities and inflation, which is in line with existing empirical evidence. However, the strong evidence of perverse relationship, noted in previous studies of REITs, is not robust throughout the other nine markets. The hedged and orthogonalized data also provided minimal evidence in favour of a positive relationship, both in the short and long terms.Inflation hedging, International real estate, real estate securities

A meta analysis of real estate fund performance

This paper provides evidence regarding the risk-adjusted performance of 19 UK real estate funds in the UK, over the period 1991-2001. Using Jensen’s alpha the results are generally favourable towards the hypothesis that real estate fund managers showed superior risk-adjusted performance over this period. However, using three widely known parametric statistical procedures to jointly test for timing and selection ability the results are less conclusive. The paper then utilises the meta-analysis technique to further examine the regression results in an attempt to estimate the proportion of variation in results attributable to sampling error. The meta-analysis results reveal strong evidence, across all models, that the variation in findings is real and may not be attributed to sampling error. Thus, the meta-analysis results provide strong evidence that on average the sample of real estate funds analysed in this study delivered significant risk-adjusted performance over this period. The meta-analysis for the three timing and selection models strongly indicating that this out performance of the benchmark resulted from superior selection ability, while the evidence for the ability of real estate fund managers to time the market is at best weak. Thus, we can say that although real estate fund managers are unable to outperform a passive buy and hold strategy through timing, they are able to improve their risk-adjusted performance through selection ability

Capital market expectations and the London office market

The analysis of office market dynamics has generally concentrated on the impact of underlying fundamental demand and supply variables. This paper takes a slightly different approach to many previous examinations of rental dynamics. Within a Vector-Error-Correction framework the empirical analysis concentrates upon the impact of economic and financial variables on rents in the City of London and West End of London office markets. The impulse response and variance decomposition reveal that while lagged rental values and key demand drivers play a highly important role in the dynamics of rents, financial variables are also influential. Stock market performance not only influences the City of London market but also the West End, whilst the default spread plays an important role in recent years. It is argued that both series incorporate expectations about future economic performance and that this is the basis of their influence upon rental values

Real estate portfolio construction and estimation risk

The use of MPT in the construction real estate portfolios has two serious limitations when used in an ex-ante framework: (1) the intertemporal instability of the portfolio weights and (2) the sharp deterioration in performance of the optimal portfolios outside the sample period used to estimate asset mean returns. Both problems can be traced to wide fluctuations in sample means Jorion (1985). Thus the use of a procedure that ignores the estimation risk due to the uncertain in mean returns is likely to produce sub-optimal results in subsequent periods. This suggests that the consideration of the issue of estimation risk is crucial in the use of MPT in developing a successful real estate portfolio strategy. Therefore, following Eun & Resnick (1988), this study extends previous ex-ante based studies by evaluating optimal portfolio allocations in subsequent test periods by using methods that have been proposed to reduce the effect of measurement error on optimal portfolio allocations

Real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio: the question of consistency

The recent poor performance of the equity market in the UK has meant that real estate is increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, determining whether the good return enjoyed by real estate is a temporary or long-term phenomenon is a question that remains largely unanswered. In other words, there is little or no evidence to indicate whether real estate should play a consistent role in the mixed-asset portfolio over short- and long-term investment horizons. Consistency in this context refers to the ability of an asset to maintain a positive allocation in an efficient portfolio over different holding periods. Such consistency is a desirable trait for any investment, but takes on particular significance when real estate is considered, as the asset class is generally perceived to be a long-term investment due to illiquidity. From an institutional investor’s perspective, it is therefore crucial to determine whether real estate can be reasonably expected to maintain a consistent allocation in the mixed-asset portfolio in both the short and long run and at what percentage. To address the question of consistency the allocation of real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio was calculated over different holding periods varying from 5- to 25-years

The consistency of private and public real estate within mixed-asset portfolios

This study considers the consistency of the role of both the private and public real estate markets within a mixed-asset context. While a vast literature has developed that has examined the potential role of both the private and public real estate markets, most studies have largely relied on both single time horizons and single sample periods. This paper builds upon the analysis of Lee and Stevenson (2005) who examined the consistency of REITs in a US capital market portfolio. The current paper extends that by also analyzing the role of the private market. To address the question, the allocation of both the private and traded markets is evaluated over different holding periods varying from 5- to 20-years. In general the results show that optimum mixed-asset portfolios already containing private real estate have little place for public real estate securities, especially in low risk portfolios and for longer investment horizons. Additionally, mixed-asset portfolios with public real estate either see the allocations to REITs diminished or eliminated if private real estate is also considered. The results demonstrate that there is a still a strong case for private real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio on the basis of an increase in risk-adjusted performance, even if the investor is already holding REITs, but that the reverse is not always the case