Debunking Objective Consequentialism: The Challenge of Knowledge-Centric Anti-Luck Epistemology

I explain why, from the perspective of knowledge-centric anti-luck epistemology, objective act consequentialist theories of ethics imply skepticism about the moral status of our prospective actions and also tend to be self-defeating, undermining the justification of consequentialist theories themselves. For according to knowledge-centric anti-luck epistemology there are modal anti-luck demands on both knowledge and justification, and it turns out that our beliefs about the moral status of our prospective actions are almost never able to satisfy these demands if objective act consequentialism is true. This kind of applied moral skepticism introduces problematic limits on our ability to use objective act consequentialism’s explanatory power as evidence for its truth. This is, in part, a product of higher-order defeat as I explain in the final section. There is, however, a silver lining for objective act consequentialists. For there is at least one type of objective act consequentialism, prior existence consequentialism, that is poised to avoid at least some of the epistemic problems discussed in this paper

Toward a Lockean Unification of Formal and Traditional Epistemology

Can there be knowledge and rational belief in the absence of a rational degree of confidence? Yes, and cases of "mistuned knowledge" demonstrate this. In this paper we leverage this normative possibility in support of advancing our understanding of the metaphysical relation between belief and credence. It is generally assumed that a Lockean metaphysics of belief that reduces outright belief to degrees of confidence would immediately effect a unification of coarse-grained epistemology of belief with fine-grained epistemology of confidence. Scott Sturgeon has suggested that the unification is effected by understanding the relation between outright belief and confidence as an instance of the determinable-determinate relation. But determination of belief by confidence would not by itself yield the result that norms for confidence carry over to norms for outright belief unless belief and high confidence are token identical. We argue that this token-identity thesis is incompatible with the neglected phenomenon of “mistuned knowledge”—knowledge and rational belief in the absence of rational confidence. We contend that there are genuine cases of mistuned knowledge and that, therefore, epistemological unification must forego token identity of belief and high confidence. We show how partial epistemological unification can be secured given determination of outright belief by degrees of confidence even without token-identity. Finally, we suggest a direction for the pursuit of thoroughgoing epistemological unification

OPTIMAL INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HOLDINGS IN EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIES: THE BRAZILIAN CASE

This paper discusses the optimal international reserves holding for Brazilian economy. The optimal is determined with the buffer stock (inventory) model, using a time series approach. This paper differs from traditional approaches that run cross-section analysis. We evaluate Brazilian's reserves holdings with the model and discuss the role of IMF accord in the reserves holdings. The paper also presents evidence to support the idea of fewer needs to hold international reserves in a floating foreign exchange rate regime than in a fixed one. Conclusions highlight that Brazilians' foreign reserves are slightly above the optimal level and the model may allow the country to evaluate the needs of IMF accord renew.

The Self-insurance Role of International Reserves and the 2008-2010 Crisis

There is no standard rule for the definition of an “optimal level” of international reserves and several assumptions underlie the rationale behind holding reserves. There are various theoretical approaches, but no standard for the evaluation of the performance of “optimal level” models, and their parameters are difficult to estimate. The literature suggests that the benefits of holding reserves are high, but the accumulation of reserves is a costly strategy. In fact, in a world of high liquidity and free capital flow, establishing an adequate level of international reserves is still a puzzle. The strategy of accumulating international reserves is evaluated here using data from the 2008-2010 crisis and it is shown that countries with higher international reserve levels had less adjustment costs between 2008 and 2010. The cost-benefit relationship of holding reserves in the 2008-2010 crisis is also discussed based on a sample with 71 countries.

DYNAMICS OF THE SELIC INTEREST RATES-TARGET IN BRAZIL

The present work analyzes the discrete dynamic of the SELIC interest rates-target defined in the meetings of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Council (COPOM). The probit model methodology was applied in order to study the probability of Central Bank increase or decrease SELIC-target interest rate. We found that the inclusion of a fiscal (primary fiscal surplus/GDP) and the lagged output gap variables must be considered important ones to COPOM's decision making processes.