Boundary Layer Clouds and Convection over Subtropical Oceans in our Current and in a Warmer Climate

Purpose of Review: We review our understanding of mechanisms underlying the response of (sub)tropical clouds to global warming, highlight mechanisms that challenge our understanding, and discuss simulation strategies that tackle them. Recent Findings: Turbulence-resolving models and emergent constraints provide probable evidence, supported by theoretical understanding, that the cooling cloud radiative effect (CRE) of low clouds weakens with warming: a positive low-cloud feedback. Nevertheless, an uncertainty in the feedback remains. Climate models may not adequately represent changing SST and circulation patterns, which determine future cloud-controlling factors and how these couple to clouds. Furthermore, we do not understand what mesoscale organization implies for the CRE, and how moisture-radiation interactions, horizontal advection, and the profile of wind regulate low cloud, in our current and in our warmer climate. Summary: Clouds in nature are more complex than the idealized cloud types that have informed our understanding of the cloud feedback. Remaining major uncertainties are the coupling of clouds to large-scale circulations and to the ocean, and mesoscale aggregation of clouds.Atmospheric Remote SensingAtmospheric Physic

A Bound on Ekman Pumping

Momentum transport by boundary layer turbulence causes a weak synoptic-scale vertical motion. The classical textbook solution for the strength of this Ekman pumping depends on the curl of the surface momentum flux. A new solution for Ekman pumping is derived in terms of the curl of the geostrophic wind and a term that depends in a nontrivial way on the vertical profile of the turbulent momentum flux. The solution is confined to a boundary layer regime that is vertically well mixed and horizontally homogeneous. The momentum flux is computed from a commonly used bulk surface drag formula and a flux jump relation to capture the entrainment flux of momentum at the top of the boundary layer. It is found that the strength of Ekman pumping is bounded. The weakening of Ekman pumping for enhanced turbulent surface friction can be explained from the fact that it will reduce the magnitude of the horizontal wind. It is demonstrated that entrainment of momentum across the top of the boundary layer tends to diminish the large-scale divergence of the wind. As momentum transport is parameterized in large-scale models, the analysis is relevant for the understanding and interpretation of the evolution of synoptic-scale vertical motions as predicted by such models.Atmospheric Remote Sensin

Response of Extreme Precipitating Cell Structures to Atmospheric Warming

With increasing temperatures, it is likely that precipitation extremes increase as well. While, on larger spatial and longer temporal scales, the amplification of rainfall extremes often follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, it has been shown that local short-term convective precipitation extremes may well exceed the Clausius-Clapeyron rate of around 6.5%/K. Most studies on this topic have focused exclusively on the intensity aspect, while only few have examined (with contradictory results) how warmer and moister conditions modulate the spatial characteristics of convective precipitation extremes and how these connect to increased intensities. Here we study this relation by using a large eddy simulation model. We simulate one diurnal cycle of heavy convective precipitation activity based on a realistic observation-based strongly forced case setup. Systematically perturbed initial conditions of temperature and specific humidity enable an examination of the response of intensities and spatial characteristics of the precipitation field over an 8° dew point temperature range. We find that warmer and moister conditions result in an overall increase of both intensities and spatial extent of individual rain cells. Colder conditions favor the development of many but smaller rain cells. Under warmer conditions, we find a reduced number of individual cells, but their size significantly grows along with an increase of intensities over a large part of a rain cell. Combined, these factors lead to larger and more intense rain cells that can produce up to almost 20% more rain per degree warming and therefore have a large impact.Atmospheric Remote Sensin

Organisation in Shallow Cumulus Convection [PPT]

Atmospheric Remote Sensin

Convective Mass-Flux From Long Term Radar Reflectivities Over Darwin, Australia

Most cumulus parametrizations today make use of a simple conceptual model of convection, called the mass-flux approach. This approach depicts convection as an ensemble of updrafts and downdrafts occurring within a model grid-box. The aim of this study is to determine convective mass-fluxes and their constituents on the scale of a 100 km GCM grid-box from a C-band polarimetric radar and thereafter investigate the relative role of area fraction and vertical velocity in determining the shape and magnitude of bulk mass-flux profiles. We make use of observational estimates of these quantities spanning 13 wet seasons in the tropical region of Darwin. Following a bulk approach, the results show that the distribution of mass-flux is positively skewed and its mean profile peaks at 4 km. This is the result of constant area fractions and increasing vertical velocities below that level. Above 4 km, in-cloud vertical velocity plays a marginal role compared to the convective area fraction in controlling mass-flux profiles.Atmospheric Remote Sensin

An Investigation of the Eddy-Covariance Flux Imbalance in a Year-Long Large-Eddy Simulation of the Weather at Cabauw

The low-frequency contribution to the systematic and random sampling errors in single-tower eddy-covariance flux measurements is investigated using large-eddy simulation (LES). We use a continuous LES integration that covers a full year of realistic weather conditions over Cabauw, the Netherlands, and emulate eddy-covariance measurements. We focus on the daytime flux imbalance, when the turbulent flux is sufficiently resolved. Averaged over the year, daytime single-tower eddy-covariance flux measurements lead to a significant systematic underestimation of the turbulent flux. This underestimation depends on the averaging period and measurement height. For a 3600-s averaging period at 16-m height, the systematic underestimation reduces to a few percent, but for 900-s averaged tall-tower measurements at 100-m height, the fluxes are systematically underestimated by over 20 %. The year-long dataset facilitates an investigation into the environmental conditions that influence the eddy-covariance flux imbalance. The imbalance problem is found to vary widely from day to day, strongly dependent on the flow regime. In general, the imbalance problem reduces with increased mean wind speed, but days having the largest imbalance (over twice the average) are characterized by roll vortices that occur for average wind speeds, typically having a boundary-layer height (zi) to Obukhov length (L) ratio of 10<?zi/L<100.Geoscience and Remote SensingCivil Engineering and Geoscience

Cold Pool Dynamics Shape the Response of Extreme Rainfall Events to Climate Change

There is increasing evidence that local rainfall extremes can increase with warming at a higher rate than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. The exact mechanisms behind this super-CC scaling phenomenon are still unsolved. Recent studies highlight invigorated local dynamics as a contributor to enhanced precipitation rates with warming. Here, cold pools play an important role in the process of organization and deepening of convective clouds. Another known effect of cold pools is the amplification of low-level moisture variability. Yet, how these processes respond to climatic warming and how they relate to enhanced precipitation rates remains largely unanswered. Unlike other studies which use rather simple approaches mimicking climate change, we present a much more comprehensive set of experiments using a high-resolution large eddy simulation (LES) model. We use an idealized but realistically forced case setup, representative for conditions with extreme summer precipitation in midlatitudes. Based on that, we examine how a warmer atmosphere under the assumption of constant and varying relative humidity, lapse rate changes and enhanced large-scale dynamics influence precipitation rates, cold pool dynamics, and the low-level moisture field. Warmer conditions generally lead to larger and more intense events, accompanied by enhanced cold pool dynamics and a concurring moisture accumulation in confined regions. The latter are known as preferred locations for new convective events. Our results show that cold pool dynamics play an increasingly important role in shaping the response of local precipitation extremes to global warming, providing a potential mechanism for super-CC behavior as subject for future research.Atmospheric Remote Sensin

Impact of changes in the formulation of cloud-related processes on model biases and climate feedbacks

To test the impact of modeling uncertainties and biases on the simulation of cloud feedbacks, several configurations of the EC-Earth climate model are built altering physical parameterizations. An overview of the various radiative feedbacks diagnosed from the reference EC-Earth configuration is documented for the first time. The cloud feedback is positive and small. While the total feedback parameter is almost insensitive to model configuration, the cloud feedback, in particular its shortwave (SW) component, can vary considerably depending on the model settings. The lateral mass exchange rate of penetrative convection and the conversion rate from condensed water to precipitation are leading uncertain parameters affecting the radiative feedbacks diagnosed. Consistent with other studies, we find a strong correlation between low-cloud model fidelity and low-cloud response under global warming. It is shown that this relationship holds only for stratocumulus regimes and is contributed by low-cloud cover, rather than low-cloud optical thickness. Model configurations simulating higher stratocumulus cover, which is closer to the observations, exhibit a stronger positive SW cloud feedback. This feedback is likely underestimated in the reference EC-Earth configuration, over the eastern basins of the tropical oceans. In addition, connections between simulated high-cloud top altitude in present-day climate and longwave cloud feedback are discussed.Geoscience & Remote SensingCivil Engineering and Geoscience

The spatial extent of rainfall events and its relation to precipitation scaling

Observations show that subdaily precipitation extremes increase with dew point temperature at a rate exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. The understanding of this so-called super CC scaling is still incomplete, and observations of convective cell properties could provide important information. Here the size and intensity of rain cells are investigated by using a tracking of rainfall events in high-resolution radar data. Higher intensities are accompanied by larger rainfall areas. However, whereas small rain cells mainly follow CC scaling, larger cells display super CC behavior. Even more, for dew point exceeding 15°C, the rain cell size has to increase in order to sustain super CC scaling and a remarked increase in rain cell area is found. Our results imply that the source area of moisture, the cloud size, and the degree of mesoscale organization play key roles in the context of a warming climate.Atmospheric Remote SensingAtmospheric Physic

Peak precipitation intensity in relation to atmospheric conditions and large-scale forcing at midlatitudes

Research on relations between atmospheric conditions and extreme precipitation is important to understand and model present-day climate extremes and assess how precipitation extremes might evolve in a future climate. Here we present a statistical analysis of the relation between large-scale conditions and hourly precipitation at midlatitudes, by using observations of the Netherlands combined with a regional reanalysis. The aim is to gain a better understanding of the typical large-scale atmospheric conditions and large-scale forcing associated with extreme hourly precipitation and determine the typical differences between cases of extreme precipitation and weaker events. To avoid double counting, we perform an event-based analysis and consider the hourly peak intensity, rather than all hourly data. Atmospheric large-scale profiles consistently show a clear separation between precipitation deciles, characterized by increasing instability and moisture content of the atmosphere for more extreme precipitation. Furthermore, stronger events are characterized by larger atmospheric forcing preceding the event, which primarily relates to vertical motions. Based on these results, four atmospheric parameters, describing atmospheric moisture, stability and large-scale convergence, are analyzed as potential indicators of strong precipitation events. Despite positive relations between these parameters and the peak intensity, their correlations are found to be weak.Atmospheric PhysicsAtmospheric Remote Sensin