Rule-based Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Forecasting Load on Special Days: A Case Study for France

This paper presents a case study on short-term load forecasting for France, with emphasis on special days, such as public holidays. We investigate the generalisability to French data of a recently proposed approach, which generates forecasts for normal and special days in a coherent and unified framework, by incorporating subjective judgment in univariate statistical models using a rule-based methodology. The intraday, intraweek, and intrayear seasonality in load are accommodated using a rule-based triple seasonal adaptation of a seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA) model. We find that, for application to French load, the method requires an important adaption. We also adapt a recently proposed SARMA model that accommodates special day effects on an hourly basis using indicator variables. Using a rule formulated specifically for the French load, we compare the SARMA models with a range of different benchmark methods based on an evaluation of their point and density forecast accuracy. As sophisticated benchmarks, we employ the rule-based triple seasonal adaptations of Holt-Winters-Taylor (HWT) exponential smoothing and artificial neural networks (ANNs). We use nine years of half-hourly French load data, and consider lead times ranging from one half-hour up to a day ahead. The rule-based SARMA approach generated the most accurate forecasts.Comment: 11 figures, 3 table

Assessing Parkinson’s Disease at Scale Using Telephone-Recorded Speech:Insights from the Parkinson’s Voice Initiative

Numerous studies have reported on the high accuracy of using voice tasks for the remote detection and monitoring of Parkinson’s Disease (PD). Most of these studies, however, report findings on a small number of voice recordings, often collected under acoustically controlled conditions, and therefore cannot scale at large without specialized equipment. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the potential of using voice as a population-based PD screening tool in resource-constrained settings. Using the standard telephone network, we processed 11,942 sustained vowel /a/ phonations from a US-English cohort comprising 1078 PD and 5453 control participants. We characterized each phonation using 304 dysphonia measures to quantify a range of vocal impairments. Given that this is a highly unbalanced problem, we used the following strategy: we selected a balanced subset (n = 3000 samples) for training and testing using 10-fold cross-validation (CV), and the remaining (unbalanced held-out dataset, n = 8942) samples for further model validation. Using robust feature selection methods we selected 27 dysphonia measures to present into a radial-basis-function support vector machine and demonstrated differentiation of PD participants from controls with 67.43% sensitivity and 67.25% specificity. These findings could help pave the way forward toward the development of an inexpensive, remote, and reliable diagnostic support tool for PD using voice as a digital biomarker

Locally Adaptive Block Thresholding Method with Continuity Constraint

We present an algorithm that enables one to perform locally adaptive block thresholding, while maintaining image continuity. Images are divided into sub-images based some standard image attributes and thresholding technique is employed over the sub-images. The present algorithm makes use of the thresholds of neighboring sub-images to calculate a range of values. The image continuity is taken care by choosing the threshold of the sub-image under consideration to lie within the above range. After examining the average range values for various sub-image sizes of a variety of images, it was found that the range of acceptable threshold values is substantially high, justifying our assumption of exploiting the freedom of range for bringing out local details.Comment: 12 Pages, 4 figures, 1 Tabl

Short-term Forecasting of Anomalous Load Using Rule-based Triple Seasonal Methods

Numerous methods have been proposed for forecasting load for normal days. Modeling of anomalous load, however, has often been ignored in the research literature. Occurring on special days, such as public holidays, anomalous load conditions pose considerable modeling challenges due to their infrequent occurrence and significant deviation from normal load. To overcome these limitations, we adopt a rule-based approach, which allows incorporation of prior expert knowledge of load profiles into the statistical model. We use triple seasonal Holt-Winters-Taylor (HWT) exponential smoothing, triple seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and triple seasonal intraweek singular value decomposition (SVD) based exponential smoothing. These methods have been shown to be competitive for modeling load for normal days. The methodological contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how these methods can be adapted to model load for special days, when used in conjunction with a rule-based approach. The proposed rule-based method is able to model normal and anomalous load in a unified framework. Using nine years of half-hourly load for Great Britain, we evaluate point forecasts, for lead times from one half-hour up to a day ahead. A combination of two rule-based methods generated the most accurate forecasts.Comment: 8 Pages, 11 Figure