Rationale Marktübertreibungen im Zusammenhang der aktuellen Finanzmarktkrise

Der Untersuchungsgegenstand der Arbeit ist die Darstellung der wichtigsten Anlegermotive bei Marktübertreibungen. Es wird dabei auf Konzepte der verhaltensorientierten Kapitalmarktforschung zurückgegriffen. Basierend auf den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen werden Lösungsansätze zur Vermeidung von Marktübertreibungen abgeleitet. Untersuchungen, beispielsweise durch Bikhchandani und Sharma (2000), haben gezeigt, dass Herdenverhalten eine wichtige Rolle bei der Erklärung von Preisübertreibungen spielt. Dabei kann es rational sein, sich konform zur Masse der Marktteilnehmer zu verhalten. Neben dem Konzept des Herdenverhaltens kann Konservatismus unter Marktteilnehmern zur Bestätigung vorherrschender Trends beitragen. Heuristiken werden angewandt, um komplexe Sachverhalte zu vereinfachen. Insbesondere die Repräsentativitätsheuristik kann zu einer Verstärkung bestehender Preisübertreibungen führen. Die Autoren sind der Ansicht, dass vor allem eine Verbesserung der Informationsbasis zur Reduzierung von Fehleinschätzungen durch Marktteilnehmer beitragen kann. Sowohl die Verfügbarkeit als auch die Qualität der Informationen spielen dabei eine Rolle. Ein weiterer Lösungsansatz betrifft die Risikoeinstellung und Kreditvergabe der Banken. In Boomphasen sollte das Risiko eines Crashs berücksichtigt werden.The paper deals with the motives of people to invest in overvalued markets. We resort to the concepts of behavioural finance to describe the most important factors. Based on these findings we deduct measures to avoid misjudgement of markets participants. As Bikhchandani and Sharma (2000) show, the concept of herd behaviour plays a decisive role in explaining exuberance in markets. There are incentives for investors, money managers and analysts to imitate other's actions. Furthermore, conservatism as well as heuristics like representativeness may also lead to a confirmation of prevailing trends. Another driver of misjudgement is the usage of heuristics like representativeness. The authors consider that the provision of information may substantially contribute to the reduction of misjudgement and exuberance in markets. Both availability and quality of information are important. Another approach aims at the regulation of bank lending, which should be limited particularly during a booming economy

Institutional Herding

Institutional investors' demand for a security this quarter is positively correlated with their demand for the security last quarter. We attribute this to institutional investors following each other into and out of the same securities ("herding") and institutional investors following their own lag trades. Although institutional investors are "momentum" traders, little of their herding results from momentum trading. Moreover, institutional demand is more strongly related to lag institutional demand than lag returns. Results are most consistent with the hypothesis that institutions herd as a result of inferring information from each other's trades. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

The Fault in Our Stars: Molecular Genetics and Information Technology Use

There is a growing interest in understanding the role of genetics in explaining heterogeneity in behaviors, including those related to information systems (IS). The majority of the recent genetics research focuses on searching the entire genome in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) to link DNA to human traits. The results of GWASs can be used on datasets to compute a measure of genetic propensity known as a polygenic score, or PGS. PGSs are widely viewed as the future of genetics research. We conducted an exploratory study, in the context of information technology (IT) use, to examine if the PGS approach can be used to better understand the role of genetics in IS research. Consistent with our hypotheses, genetic endowments associated with Educational Attainment and General Cognition positively predict technology use, and genetic endowments associated with Neuroticism, Depressive Symptoms, Myocardial Infarction, and Coronary Artery Disease negatively predict technology use more than half a century later (genetic endowments are established at conception and our sample consists of individuals aged 50 to 80). Many of the characteristics known to be associated with heterogeneity in IT use (e.g., trust, education) appear to be mediators linking PGSs to IT use. Nonetheless, a number of PGSs maintain meaningful direct effects

Institutional industry herding

We examine whether institutional investors follow each other into and out of the same industries. Our empirical results reveal strong evidence of institutional industry herding. The cross-sectional correlation between the fraction of institutional traders buying an industry this quarter and the fraction buying last quarter, for example, averages 40%. Additional tests suggest that correlated signals primarily drive institutional industry herding. Our results also provide empirical support for "style investing" models.Herding Institutional investors Style investing

Insider Trades and Demand by Institutional and Individual Investors

There is a strong inverse relation between insider trading and institutional demand the same quarter and over the previous year. Our analysis suggests a combination of factors contribute to this relation. First, institutional investors are more likely to provide the liquidity necessary for insiders to trade. Second, insiders are more likely to buy low valuation and low lag return stocks while institutions are attracted to the opposite security characteristics. Last, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that insiders are more likely to view their securities as overvalued (undervalued) following a period when institutions were net buyers (sellers). The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

Experts vs. Nonexperts in Online Crowdfunding Markets

The growth of crowdfunding markets that include both expert and nonexpert investors will soon accelerate due to recent changes in Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations. Prior work has suggested that nonexperts (1) may benefit from experts’ participation via mimicking their trades, but (2) will also face a cost, as experts crowding nonexperts out of the best opportunities will ensure that nonexperts will suffer lower returns than experts. Traditional economic theory holds that the crowding effect means that the relative importance of nonexperts in the market will decline over time until they become unimportant. Exploiting a unique period in one crowdfunding market (Prosper.com) that allowed us to directly estimate the net cost of competing with better-informed experts, we found that the net negative effects of expert participation on nonexperts are small. We used simulations to both better understand (1) the market characteristics and crowdfunding platform choices that influence experts’ and nonexperts’ returns, their return gap, and the extent to which nonexperts are better or worse off relative to a market without expert participation, and (2) the factors that may contribute to the small expert/nonexpert Prosper return gap