Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport incorporating freeze/thaw cycles and phase change in a continuous permafrost environment

Dans les régions nordiques, l’une des conséquences du réchauffement climatique est le dégel du pergélisol. En plus de favoriser la libération de quantités importantes de méthane et de dioxyde de carbone dans l’atmosphère, le dégel du pergélisol entraînera une modification des conditions hydrologiques locales et régionales, affectant ainsi les écosystèmes. Ce dégel pourra aussi conduire à un affaissement des sols et endommager ainsi les infrastructures routières. Dans le cadre de cette étude, des simulations numériques couplant l’écoulement des eaux souterraines et le transport de chaleur ont été réalisées dans le but de mieux appréhender les interactions entre l’écoulement des eaux souterraines et la dynamique thermique relative au dégel du pergélisol sur les pistes de l’Aéroport d’Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada. Un modèle conceptuel du site est d’abord développé et le modèle numérique bidimensionnel correspondant est calé à partir des températures observées du sol. Les impacts futurs du réchauffement climatique sur le régime thermique et le système d’écoulement, aussi que le tassement dû au dégel, sont ensuite simulés sur la base des scénarios climatiques proposés par le Groupe Intergouvernemental sur l’Évolution du Climat (GIEC). Dans le cadre d’un réchauffement climatique, la couverture neigeuse de surface est identifiée comme le facteur principal affectant la dégradation du pergélisol, y compris par son rôle dans l’accroissement de la sensibilité de la dégradation du pergélisol aux changements de divers facteurs hydrogéologiques. Dans ce cas, le transfert de chaleur par advection joue un rôle relativement mineur, quoique non négligeable, vis-à-vis du transfert de chaleur par conduction, du fait de l’extension importante d’un sol de faible perméabilité à proximité de la surface. Le transfert de chaleur par convection, qui est fortement influencé par la couche de neige superficielle, contrôle la libération de l’eau non gelée et la profondeur de la couche active aussi bien que l’amplitude du tassement et du soulèvement par le dégel. L'effet de la zone non saturée sur le dégel du pergélisol est plus important dans les sols fins, recouverts de neige en surface. De plus, l’ampleur du tassement dû au dégel augmente considérablement en présence d’une couverture neigeuse. Enfin, les simulations ont montré que, le long de routes, les zones les plus vulnérables au tassement sont les accotements recouverts de neige ainsi que les zones de transition adjacentes au bloc de pergélisol. Les simulations numériques ont également montré l’importance d’utiliser les fonctions de gel appropriées pour les types de sols impliqués. En effet, la position du front de gel (couche active) varie en fonction des caractéristiques du sol. Les résultats des simulations ont également mis en évidence les effets d'une distribution stochastique de la conductivité hydraulique sur l’advection thermique. Les taux de dégel du pergélisol sont relativement plus élevés dans des zones de haute perméabilité, trouvées dans la structure du sol d'un système hétérogène, que dans le cas d’un sol homogène. Paradoxalement, les résultats ont montré que dans les zones de décharge, le transport de chaleur par advection a pour conséquence d'augmenter le plafond du pergélisol. En effet, l'eau froide s'écoulant dans ce secteur annule le gain de chaleur résultant du processus de conduction.At high northern latitudes, climate warming will induce permafrost degradation that will modify local and regional hydrogeological systems and ecosystem functionality, as well as increase the release of carbon and methane to the environment. Northern infrastructure, in particular roads and embankments, will also experience significant degradation. In this study, numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport have been developed to assess the effects of realistic combinations of hydrogeological parameters and surface conditions on the temporal and spatial evolution of permafrost degradation in a cold-region paved terrain, at the Iqaluit airport, Nunavut. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding 2D numerical model is calibrated to the observed groundwater flow and thermal regime. Future climate warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system, as well as thaw settlements are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Under climate warming, the surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, and significantly contributes to positive feedback between the hydrogeological flow system and the frozen ground. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. The effect of the unsaturated zone on permafrost thaw was most important in finer soil where overlain by snow. The magnitude of thaw settlement also significantly increases with a snow cover. The most vulnerable areas to permafrost thaw settlement along a road or taxiway embankment would be the snow-covered shoulders, as well as the transition zones at the adjacent margins of the permafrost block. The simulation results also showed the importance of selecting the appropriate freezing function based on the type of soil, when frequent freezing and thawing cycles occur in a permafrost setting. The thaw front simulated with a smooth (low slope) freezing function, was deeper compared to that for a steeper freezing function. The simulation results also highlighted the contributing effects of a stochastic hydraulic conductivity distribution on thermal advection. Permafrost thaw rates in high permeability zones, found in the soil structure of a heterogeneous system, are larger than rates for a homogeneous soil. Advective heat transport can paradoxically also increase the permafrost table in downgradient areas where the flowing cold water negates heat gain from conduction alone

Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater flow and heat transport system : Iqaluit Airport, Nunavut, Canada

Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011– 2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m

Numerical simulations of shallow groundwater flow and heat transport in a continuous permafrost setting under the impact of climate warming

Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport are used to address how hydrogeological conditions can affect permafrost dynamics. The simulations are based on a 2D vertical-plane conceptual model of a study site at the Iqaluit Airport, Nunavut, Canada, which includes a 50 m deep permafrost terrain with a shallow active layer, overlain by a paved taxiway with winter snow-covered embankments. Coupled groundwater flow and advective-conductive heat transport with freeze-thaw dynamics, temperature-dependent porewater freezing functions and latent heat are included in the model. The simulation results show that a smooth (low-slope) freezing function with a higher residual unfrozen moisture content produced a deeper thaw front compared to that using a steeper freezing function, generating a maximum increase in the depth to permafrost of 17.5 m after 268 years. Permafrost thaw rates in high-permeability zones within a heterogeneous system were also relatively higher compared to an otherwise equivalent homogeneous soil, resulting in a maximum increase of 2.6 m in the depth to permafrost after 238 years. As recharge water cools while flowing along the upgradient permafrost table, advectively-driven heat transport is paradoxically shown to temporarily increase the height of the permafrost table in downgradient areas.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author