Unbounded autocatalytic growth on diffusive substrate: the extinction transition

The effect of diffusively correlated spatial fluctuations on the proliferation-extinction transition of autocatalytic agents is investigated numerically. Reactants adaptation to spatio-temporal active regions is shown to lead to proliferation even if the mean field rate equations predict extinction, in agreement with previous theoretical predictions. While in the proliferation phase the system admits a typical time scale that dictates the exponential growth, the extinction times distribution obeys a power law at the parameter region considered

Stochastic Desertification

The process of desertification is usually modeled as a first order transition, where a change of an external parameter (e.g. precipitation) leads to a catastrophic bifurcation followed by an ecological regime shift. However, vegetation elements like shrubs and trees undergo a stochastic birth-death process with an absorbing state; such a process supports a second order continuous transition with no hysteresis. We present a numerical study of a minimal model that supports bistability and catastrophic shift on spatial domain with demographic noise and an absorbing state. When the external parameter varies adiabatically the transition is continuous and the front velocity renormalizes to zero at the extinction transition. Below the transition one may identify three modes of desertification: accumulation of local catastrophes, desert invasion and global collapse. A catastrophic regime shift occurs as a dynamical hysteresis, when the pace of environmental variations is too fast. We present some empirical evidence, suggesting that the mid-holocene desertification of the Sahara was, indeed, continuous