Non-linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity

Recent empirical evidence suggests that stock market index returns are predictable from a variety of financial and macroeconomic variables. We extend this research by examining value and growth portfolios constructed by book-to-market ratio, and consider whether such predictability is evident here. Further, we assess whether such predictability is better characterised by a non-linear form and whether such non-linear predictability can be exploited to provide superior forecasts to those obtained from a linear model. General non-linearities are examined using non-parametric techniques, which suggest possible threshold behaviour. This leads to estimation of a smooth-transition threshold model, with the results indicating an improved in-sample performance and marginally superior out-of-sample forecast results. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004.

ECONOMIC FREEDOM VERSUS POLITICAL FREEDOM: CROSS-COUNTRY INFLUENCES ON CORRUPTION *

Using a well-known index of corruption, this paper examines the determinants of corruption for a large sample of countries. Specifically, the present study brings empirical evidence to bear on the question of whether economic freedom or political freedom serves as a deterrent to corrupt activity. In particular, does greater economic freedom or greater political freedom yield a more 'clean' society? Our results show that greater economic freedom seems to matter more in this regard. Examining different components of economic freedom, we find that not all these components are equally effective in reducing corruption. For instance, monetary policy seems to have a stronger influence on the level of corrupt activity in a country than fiscal policy. Robustness of these findings is checked and policy implications are discussed. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd/ University of Adelaide and Flinders University 2005..

No Pretense to Honesty: County Government Corruption in Mississippi

Corruption, Rent seeking, County governments, Operation Pretense, D73, K42,

Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices

Liquidity in private asset markets is notoriously variable over time. Therefore, indices of changes in market value that are based on asset transaction prices will systematically reflect intertemporal differences in the ease of selling a property. We define and develop a concept of "constant-liquidity value" in the context of a model that is characterized by pro-cyclical volume of trading. We then present an econometric model that allows for estimation of both a standard transaction-based price index and a constant-liquidity index. Our application to the NCREIF database reveals that, in the case of institutional commercial real estate investment, constant-liquidity values tend to lead transaction-based and appraisal-based indices in time, and also to display greater volatility and cycle amplitude. The differences can be significant for strategic investment policy viewed from a mean-variance portfolio optimization perspective. Copyright 2003 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Corporate governance mechanisms and financial performance in China: panel data evidence on listed non financial companies

The objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the influence of corporate governance characteristics and corporate ownership concentrations on the financial performance of Chinese companies. This is based on analysis of a panel data set covering the years 2001 to 2005. The characteristics considered are the ratios of independent directors and professional supervisors on the companies' two boards, and the level of concentration in and type of ownership of the companies. Our chosen performance metric is Tobin's Q. We find that ownership concentration in general is a significant factor in determining firm performance. The degree of board independence is significant, but it only appears to have a positive impact on performance in larger companies. The expertise of the supervisory board is not a significant determinant of corporate financial performance in China. Our findings support a continued focus on making improvements to the operation and effectiveness of China's institutions of corporate governance.Yuan George Shan and Ron P. McIve