The Service Sector in Asia: Is It an Engine of Growth?

The underdeveloped service sector in Asia has the potential to become a new engine of economic growth for developing Asia, which has traditionally relied on export-oriented manufacturing to power its growth. The central objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the prospects for the service sector as a future engine of growth. Our analysis of 12 Asian economies indicates that the service sector already contributed substantially to the region’s growth in the past. Furthermore, somewhat surprisingly in light of the difficulty of achieving productivity gains in services, we also find that services labor productivity grew at a healthy pace in much of the region. Overall our analysis provides substantial cause for optimism about the role of the service sector as an engine of growth in Asia. However, some Asian countries where the service sector is currently struggling, such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand, will find it more challenging to develop the sector

Economic Growth, Financial Development, and Income Inequality

The central objective of our paper is to empirically examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality. Theoretically, there are grounds for both a positive and negative relationship between the two variables. Our main finding is that financial development contributes to reducing inequality up to a point, but as financial development proceeds further, it contributes to greater inequality. We also find that when the ratio of primary schooling to total schooling increases and law and order improves, financial development becomes more effective in reducing inequality

Saving, Investment, and Current Account Surplus in Developing Asia

An integral part of global current account imbalances is the large and persistent current account surplus developing Asia has run since the 1997–1998 Asian crisis. A country's current account surplus is, by definition, equal to its net saving. The central objective of this paper is to investigate the extent to which the saving and investment rate of Asian countries can be explained by the underlying fundamental determinants of saving and investment such as gross domestic product growth and demographic factors. Our empirical analysis yields two key findings. First, we find stronger evidence of oversaving than underinvestment in the region. Second, we find stronger evidence of overinvestment prior to the Asian crisis than underinvestment after the Asian crisis. This suggests that the key to rebalancing Asian growth toward domestic sources lies in promoting consumption rather than investment

The People's Republic of China as an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia? Evidence from Vector Autoregression Models

Developing Asia has traditionally relied on exports to the United States (US) and other industrialized countries for demand and growth. As a result, the collapse of exports to the US and other industrialized countries during the global financial and economic crisis has sharply curtailed gross domestic product (GDP) growth across the region. The emergence of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a globally influential economic force is fueling hopes that it can supplement the US as an additional source of demand and growth. The central objective of this paper is to use vector autoregression (VAR) models to empirically investigate whether exports to the PRC have a significant and positive effect on the GDP of nine developing Asian countries. The study's results from a three-variable VAR model indicate that PRC's imports have a significant positive effect on the GDP of regional countries. However, the study's results from a four-variable VAR model indicate that the PRC's apparently positive impact reflects the US' demand for Asian goods, rather than independent demand from the PRC. Therefore, overall, the study's evidence suggests that the PRC is not yet an engine of growth for the rest of the region

The landscape of economic growth: Do middle-income countries differ?

We review the growth experience of middle-income countries. Economic factors associated with growth appear to differ between middle income and other countries. The efficiency of the financial system is importantly related to the growth rate in low- and middle-income countries, but appears to matter less as one moves up the income scale. Demographic variables also matter importantly in low-income countries. In middle-income countries, in contrast, measures of the financial system no longer appear to matter as importantly, as if inefficiencies in banking and financial systems are no longer as binding a constraint as at earlier stages of financial development; nor are demographic variables as important as before. At this point, other variables gain a growing role: these include whether the country experiences a banking or currency crisis, the extent of nonforeign direct investment capital inflows, and government debt as a share of gross domestic product

A Platform for Generating Anomalous Traces Under Cooperative Driving Scenarios

As we allow more critical decisions to be made by software, it becomes increasingly necessary to ensure the decisions made are correct. One approach is to monitor the software for signs of an anomaly. The approach is an active area of research with many proposed methods. For validating anomaly detection techniques, two popular approaches exist: Using an existing data trace, such as Knowledge Discovery and Data (KDD) Cup 1999 data, or injecting attacks into a tool used in industry. Both approaches lack flexibility; using existing traces constrain the validation to the way they are captured, while injecting attacks into an industry tool may require prior knowledge or characterization of it. A well-characterized platform that is built for trace generation would address the flexibility problem. On the other hand, autonomous driving is a field that demonstrates the criticality of decisions software discussed in the beginning. Specifically, cooperative autonomous driving scenarios, due to interactions between cars, can generate complex traces that would be of interest for researchers seeking to validate their anomaly detectors. In this thesis, we propose a cyber-physical system for collecting traces for testing anomaly detectors, based on cooperative autonomous driving. We provide the design and implementation of the proposed system. The three-tier design of the system allows researchers to generate different traces by extending the system on different levels, from different control and estimation methods to new cooperative driving scenarios. It also provides a suite of tools for introducing anomalies and collecting traces. A Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) of the system is done to guide the creation of new anomalies. Finally, traces generated by the proposed system is used on an existing anomaly detector to verify its usefulness while the trace tools and anomaly injection tools are tested for its interference with the main system

Deflation in Asia: Should the dangers be dismissed?

Deflation has emerged as a new concern for Asian policy makers. The traditional view is that deflation can lead to a vicious cycle of falling demand and prices, and is thus a dangerous condition. However, another school of thought emphasizes the role of positive supply shocks and takes a more benign view of deflation. In a recent paper that examines the relationship between deflation and economic growth, using consumer prices time series, Borio et al. (2015) find some evidence that casts doubt on the traditional view. In this paper, we revisit the relationship and find some grounds for concern about the harmful effect of deflation on growth

Molten Salt Nanomaterials for Thermal Energy Storage and Concentrated Solar Power Applications

The thermal efficiency of concentrated solar power (CSP) system depends on the maximum operating temperature of the system which is determined by the operating temperature of the TES device. Organic materials (such as synthetic oil, fatty acid, or paraffin wax) are typically used for TES. This limits the operating temperature of CSP units to below 400 degrees C. Increasing the operating temperature to 560 degrees C (i.e., the creeping temperature of stainless steel), can enhance the theoretical thermal efficiency from 54 percent to 63 percent. However, very few thermal storage materials are compatible for these high temperatures. Molten salts are thermally stable up to 600 degrees C and beyond. Using the molten salts as the TES materials confers several benefits, which include: (1) Higher operating temperature can significantly increase the overall cycle efficiency and resulting costs of power production. (2) Low cost of the molten salt materials can drastically reduce the cost. (3) The molten salts, which are environmentally safe, can also reduce the potential environmental impact. However, these materials suffer from poor thermo-physical properties. Impregnating these materials with nanoparticles can enhance these properties. Solvents doped with nanoparticles are termed as nanofluids. Nanofluids have been reported in the literature for the anomalous enhancement of their thermo-physical properties. In this study, the poor thermal properties of the molten salts were enhanced dramatically on mixing with nanoparticles. For example the specific heat capacity of these molten salt eutectics was found to be enhanced by as much as ~ 26 percent on mixing with nanoparticles at a mass fraction of ~ 1 percent. The resultant properties of these nanomaterials were found to be highly sensitive to small variations in the synthesis protocols. Computational models were also developed in this study to explore the fundamental transport mechanisms on the molecular scale for elucidating the anomalous enhancements in the thermo-physical properties that were measured in these experiments. This study is applicable for thermal energy storage systems utilized for other energy conversion technologies – such as geothermal energy, nuclear energy and a combination of energy generation technologies