Subjective probabilities: psychological evidence and economic applications

Real-life decision makers are often forced to estimate the likelihood of uncertain future events. Usually, economists assume that agents behave as though they are fully rational, employing statistical rules to assess probabilities, and that they maximize expected utility. Psychological studies, however, have shown that people tend not to adhere to these rationality postulates. We review three rules of thumb taken from the psychology literature that people have been shown to rely on when assessing the likelihood of uncertain events. We construct a simple model of belief formation that incorporates these rules and present one formal and two illustrative applications in which these psychological phenomena cause deviations from anticipated economic outcomes.Economic conditions ; Prediction (Psychology)

Subjective probabilities: psychological theories and economic applications

Abbigail J. Chiodo, Massimo Guidolin, Michael T. Owyang, and Makoto Shimoji> Real-life decisionmakers are often forced to estimate the likelihood of uncertain future events. Usually, economists assume that these agents behave in a fully rational manner, employing statistical rules to assess probabilities, and that they maximize expected utility. Psychological studies, however, have shown that people do not tend to behave as rational models would predict. The authors review three rules of thumb taken from the psychology literature that people rely on when assessing the likelihood of uncertain events. The authors construct a simple model of belief formation that incorporates these rules and then present one formal and three illustrative applications showing how these psychological phenomena cause deviations from anticipated economic outcomes.Economic conditions ; Prediction (Psychology)

Temporal Progression Patterns of Brain Atrophy in Corticobasal Syndrome and Progressive Supranuclear Palsy Revealed by Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)

Differentiating corticobasal degeneration presenting with corticobasal syndrome (CBD-CBS) from progressive supranuclear palsy with Richardson's syndrome (PSP-RS), particularly in early stages, is often challenging because the neurodegenerative conditions closely overlap in terms of clinical presentation and pathology. Although volumetry using brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been studied in patients with CBS and PSP-RS, studies assessing the progression of brain atrophy are limited. Therefore, we aimed to reveal the difference in the temporal progression patterns of brain atrophy between patients with CBS and those with PSP-RS purely based on cross-sectional data using Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)—a novel, unsupervised machine learning technique that integrates clustering and disease progression modeling. We applied SuStaIn to the cross-sectional regional brain volumes of 25 patients with CBS, 39 patients with typical PSP-RS, and 50 healthy controls to estimate the two disease subtypes and trajectories of CBS and PSP-RS, which have distinct atrophy patterns. The progression model and classification accuracy of CBS and PSP-RS were compared with those of previous studies to evaluate the performance of SuStaIn. SuStaIn identified distinct temporal progression patterns of brain atrophy for CBS and PSP-RS, which were largely consistent with previous evidence, with high reproducibility (99.7%) under cross-validation. We classified these diseases with high accuracy (0.875) and sensitivity (0.680 and 1.000, respectively) based on cross-sectional structural brain MRI data; the accuracy was higher than that reported in previous studies. Moreover, SuStaIn stage correctly reflected disease severity without the label of disease stage, such as disease duration. Furthermore, SuStaIn also showed the genialized performance of differentiation and reflection for CBS and PSP-RS. Thus, SuStaIn has potential for improving our understanding of disease mechanisms, accurately stratifying patients, and providing prognoses for patients with CBS and PSP-RS

Microscopic dynamics in liquid metals: the experimental point of view

The experimental results relevant for the understanding of the microscopic dynamics in liquid metals are reviewed, with special regards to the ones achieved in the last two decades. Inelastic Neutron Scattering played a major role since the development of neutron facilities in the sixties. The last ten years, however, saw the development of third generation radiation sources, which opened the possibility of performing Inelastic Scattering with X rays, thus disclosing previously unaccessible energy-momentum regions. The purely coherent response of X rays, moreover, combined with the mixed coherent/incoherent response typical of neutron scattering, provides enormous potentialities to disentangle aspects related to the collectivity of motion from the single particle dynamics. If the last twenty years saw major experimental developments, on the theoretical side fresh ideas came up to the side of the most traditional and established theories. Beside the raw experimental results, therefore, we review models and theoretical approaches for the description of microscopic dynamics over different length-scales, from the hydrodynamic region down to the single particle regime, walking the perilous and sometimes uncharted path of the generalized hydrodynamics extension. Approaches peculiar of conductive systems, based on the ionic plasma theory, are also considered, as well as kinetic and mode coupling theory applied to hard sphere systems, which turn out to mimic with remarkable detail the atomic dynamics of liquid metals. Finally, cutting edges issues and open problems, such as the ultimate origin of the anomalous acoustic dispersion or the relevance of transport properties of a conductive systems in ruling the ionic dynamic structure factor are discussed.Comment: 53 pages, 41 figures, to appear in "The Review of Modern Physics". Tentatively scheduled for July issu

Body distribution of 11C-methionine and 18FDG in rat measured by microPET

Compounds 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18FDG) and 11C-methionine (11C-MET) are radiodiagnostics frequently used in clinical Positron Emission Tomography (PET) as well in preclinical studies of various pathologies. The present study was focused on the comparison of biodistribution of both radiotracers in intact Wistar rats. The animals were scanned by microPET twice. The first scanning was done after 11C-MET administration, the second scan followed 5–7 days later using 18FDG. The radiotracers were injected into the tail vein of animals in isoflurane anesthesia. After a redistribution period, whole body scans were obtained using eXplore Vista SrT GE tomograph. Accumulation of the drugs in tissues was expressed in relative values (% ID/g) in selected regions of interest. As arbitrary reference tissue for drug accumulation, the sternoclavicular area was used. 18C-MET was found remarkably cumulating especially in the liver, spleen and distal part of the gastrointestinal tract. The compound was accumulated in the liver 6.9±0.92 (mean±SEM) times more intensively than in the reference tissue. The respective value for spleen and cecum/colon was 5.62±0.81 and 3.56±0.14 times. Accumulation of 11C-MET in other body parts including the brain and heart was very low and was apparently equal to the arbitrary tissue (0.13±0.01% ID/g). In the same animals 18FDG (biontFDG) was remarkably cumulated especially in Harderian glands compared to arbitrary tissue background (11.02±1.00 times), heart (7.52±1.70 times), brain (6.14±0.37 times), and colon (5.68±0.31 times). 18FDG accumulation in the liver, spleen and other organs was apparently not different from that found in the background (0.14±0.02% ID/g). The data obtained may serve as reference values in further microPET preclinical studies with 11C-MET and 18FDG under the given conditions

Efficient integration of transgenes into a defined locus in human embryonic stem cells

Random integration is one of the more straightforward methods to introduce a transgene into human embryonic stem (ES) cells. However, random integration may result in transgene silencing and altered cell phenotype due to insertional mutagenesis in undefined gene regions. Moreover, reliability of data may be compromised by differences in transgene integration sites when comparing multiple transgenic cell lines. To address these issues, we developed a genetic manipulation strategy based on homologous recombination and Cre recombinase-mediated site-specific integration. First, we performed gene targeting of the hypoxanthine phosphoribosyltransferase 1 (HPRT) locus of the human ES cell line KhES-1. Next, a gene-replacement system was created so that a circular vector specifically integrates into the targeted HPRT locus via Cre recombinase activity. We demonstrate the application of this strategy through the creation of a tetracycline-inducible reporter system at the HPRT locus. We show that reporter gene expression was responsive to doxycycline and that the resulting transgenic human ES cells retain their self-renewal capacity and pluripotency

Phenylpropanoid Glycoside Analogues: Enzymatic Synthesis, Antioxidant Activity and Theoretical Study of Their Free Radical Scavenger Mechanism

Phenylpropanoid glycosides (PPGs) are natural compounds present in several medicinal plants that have high antioxidant power and diverse biological activities. Because of their low content in plants (less than 5% w/w), several chemical synthetic routes to produce PPGs have been developed, but their synthesis is a time consuming process and the achieved yields are often low. In this study, an alternative and efficient two-step biosynthetic route to obtain natural PPG analogues is reported for the first time. Two galactosides were initially synthesized from vanillyl alcohol and homovanillyl alcohol by a transgalactosylation reaction catalyzed by Kluyveromyces lactis β-galactosidase in saturated lactose solutions with a 30%–35% yield. To synthesize PPGs, the galactoconjugates were esterified with saturated and unsaturated hydroxycinnamic acid derivatives using Candida antarctica Lipase B (CaL-B) as a biocatalyst with 40%–60% yields. The scavenging ability of the phenolic raw materials, intermediates and PPGs was evaluated by the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical (DPPH•) method. It was found that the biosynthesized PPGs had higher scavenging abilities when compared to ascorbic acid, the reference compound, while their antioxidant activities were found similar to that of natural PPGs. Moreover, density functional theory (DFT) calculations were used to determine that the PPGs antioxidant mechanism proceeds through a sequential proton loss single electron transfer (SPLET). The enzymatic process reported in this study is an efficient and versatile route to obtain PPGs from different phenylpropanoid acids, sugars and phenolic alcohols

A Histone-Like Protein of Mycobacteria Possesses Ferritin Superfamily Protein-Like Activity and Protects against DNA Damage by Fenton Reaction

Iron is an essential metal for living organisms but its level must be strictly controlled in cells, because ferrous ion induces toxicity by generating highly active reactive oxygen, hydroxyl radicals, through the Fenton reaction. In addition, ferric ion shows low solubility under physiological conditions. To overcome these obstacles living organisms possess Ferritin superfamily proteins that are distributed in all three domains of life: bacteria, archaea, and eukaryotes. These proteins minimize hydroxyl radical formation by ferroxidase activity that converts Fe2+ into Fe3+ and sequesters iron by storing it as a mineral inside a protein cage. In this study, we discovered that mycobacterial DNA-binding protein 1 (MDP1), a histone-like protein, has similar activity to ferritin superfamily proteins. MDP1 prevented the Fenton reaction and protects DNA by the ferroxidase activity. The Km values of the ferroxidase activity by MDP1 of Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG-3007c), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Rv2986c), and Mycobacterium leprae (ML1683; ML-LBP) were 0.292, 0.252, and 0.129 mM, respectively. Furthermore, one MDP1 molecule directly captured 81.4±19.1 iron atoms, suggesting the role of this protein in iron storage. This study describes for the first time a ferroxidase-iron storage protein outside of the ferritin superfamily proteins and the protective role of this bacterial protein from DNA damage

Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans Omp29 Is Associated with Bacterial Entry to Gingival Epithelial Cells by F-Actin Rearrangement

The onset and progressive pathogenesis of periodontal disease is thought to be initiated by the entry of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa) into periodontal tissue, especially gingival epithelium. Nonetheless, the mechanism underlying such bacterial entry remains to be clarified. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the possible role of Aa outer membrane protein 29 kD (Omp29), a homologue of E. coli OmpA, in promoting bacterial entry into gingival epithelial cells. To accomplish this, Omp29 expression vector was incorporated in an OmpA-deficient mutant of E. coli. Omp29+/OmpA− E. coli demonstrated 22-fold higher entry into human gingival epithelial line cells (OBA9) than Omp29−/OmpA− E. coli. While the entry of Aa and Omp29+/OmpA− E. coli into OBA9 cells were inhibited by anti-Omp29 antibody, their adherence to OBA9 cells was not inhibited. Stimulation of OBA9 cells with purified Omp29 increased the phosphorylation of focal adhesion kinase (FAK), a pivotal cell-signaling molecule that can up-regulate actin rearrangement. Furthermore, Omp29 increased the formation of F-actin in OBA9 cells. The internalization of Omp29-coated beads and the entry of Aa into OBA9 were partially inhibited by treatment with PI3-kinase inhibitor (Wortmannin) and Rho GTPases inhibitor (EDIN), both known to convey FAK-signaling to actin-rearrangement. These results suggest that Omp29 is associated with the entry of Aa into gingival epithelial cells by up-regulating F-actin rearrangement via the FAK signaling pathway

Angelman Syndrome Protein UBE3A Interacts with Primary Microcephaly Protein ASPM, Localizes to Centrosomes and Regulates Chromosome Segregation

Many proteins associated with the phenotype microcephaly have been localized to the centrosome or linked to it functionally. All the seven autosomal recessive primary microcephaly (MCPH) proteins localize at the centrosome. Microcephalic osteodysplastic primordial dwarfism type II protein PCNT and Seckel syndrome (also characterized by severe microcephaly) protein ATR are also centrosomal proteins. All of the above findings show the importance of centrosomal proteins as the key players in neurogenesis and brain development. However, the exact mechanism as to how the loss-of-function of these proteins leads to microcephaly remains to be elucidated. To gain insight into the function of the most commonly mutated MCPH gene ASPM, we used the yeast two-hybrid technique to screen a human fetal brain cDNA library with an ASPM bait. The analysis identified Angelman syndrome gene product UBE3A as an ASPM interactor. Like ASPM, UBE3A also localizes to the centrosome. The identification of UBE3A as an ASPM interactor is not surprising as more than 80% of Angelman syndrome patients have microcephaly. However, unlike in MCPH, microcephaly is postnatal in Angelman syndrome patients. Our results show that UBE3A is a cell cycle regulated protein and its level peaks in mitosis. The shRNA knockdown of UBE3A in HEK293 cells led to many mitotic abnormalities including chromosome missegregation, abnormal cytokinesis and apoptosis. Thus our study links Angelman syndrome protein UBE3A to ASPM, centrosome and mitosis for the first time. We suggest that a defective chromosome segregation mechanism is responsible for the development of microcephaly in Angelman syndrome