Loss of aboveground forest biomass and landscape biomass variability in Missouri, US

Disturbance regimes and forests have changed over time in the eastern United States. We examined effects of historical disturbance (circa 1813 to 1850) compared to current disturbance (circa 2004 to 2008) on aboveground, live tree biomass (for trees with diameters \u3e/= 13 cm) and landscape variation of biomass in forests of the Ozarks and Plains landscapes in Missouri, USA. We simulated 10,000 one-hectare plots using random diameters generated from parameters of diameter distributions limited to diameters \u3e/= 13 cm and random densities generated from density estimates. Area-weighted mean biomass density (Mg/ha) for historical forests averaged 116 Mg/ha, ranging from 54 Mg/ha to 357 Mg/ha by small scale ecological subsections within Missouri landscapes. Area-weighted mean biomass density for current forests averaged 82 Mg/ha, ranging from 66 Mg/ha to 144 Mg/ha by ecological subsection for currently forested land. Biomass density of current forest was greater than historical biomass density for only 2 of 23 ecological subsections. Current carbon sequestration of 292 TgC on 7 million ha of forested land is less than half of the estimated historical total carbon sequestration of 693 TgC on 12 million ha. Cumulative tree cutting disturbances over time have produced forests that have less aboveground tree biomass and are uniform in biomass compared to estimates of historical biomass, which varied across Missouri landscapes. With continued relatively low rates of forest disturbance, current biomass per ha will likely increase to historical levels as the most competitive trees become larger in size and mean number of trees per ha decreases due to competition and self-thinning. Restoration of large diameter structure and forested extent of upland woodlands and floodplain forests could fulfill multiple conservation objectives, including carbon sequestration

Loss of aboveground forest biomass and landscape biomass variability in Missouri, US

Disturbance regimes and forests have changed over time in the eastern United States. We examined effects of historical disturbance (circa 1813 to 1850) compared to current disturbance (circa 2004 to 2008) on aboveground, live tree biomass (for trees with diameters \u3e/= 13 cm) and landscape variation of biomass in forests of the Ozarks and Plains landscapes in Missouri, USA. We simulated 10,000 one-hectare plots using random diameters generated from parameters of diameter distributions limited to diameters \u3e/= 13 cm and random densities generated from density estimates. Area-weighted mean biomass density (Mg/ha) for historical forests averaged 116 Mg/ha, ranging from 54 Mg/ha to 357 Mg/ha by small scale ecological subsections within Missouri landscapes. Area-weighted mean biomass density for current forests averaged 82 Mg/ha, ranging from 66 Mg/ha to 144 Mg/ha by ecological subsection for currently forested land. Biomass density of current forest was greater than historical biomass density for only 2 of 23 ecological subsections. Current carbon sequestration of 292 TgC on 7 million ha of forested land is less than half of the estimated historical total carbon sequestration of 693 TgC on 12 million ha. Cumulative tree cutting disturbances over time have produced forests that have less aboveground tree biomass and are uniform in biomass compared to estimates of historical biomass, which varied across Missouri landscapes. With continued relatively low rates of forest disturbance, current biomass per ha will likely increase to historical levels as the most competitive trees become larger in size and mean number of trees per ha decreases due to competition and self-thinning. Restoration of large diameter structure and forested extent of upland woodlands and floodplain forests could fulfill multiple conservation objectives, including carbon sequestration

Loss of aboveground forest biomass and landscape biomass variability in Missouri, US

Disturbance regimes and forests have changed over time in the eastern United States. We examined effects of historical disturbance (circa 1813 to 1850) compared to current disturbance (circa 2004 to 2008) on aboveground, live tree biomass (for trees with diameters \u3e/= 13 cm) and landscape variation of biomass in forests of the Ozarks and Plains landscapes in Missouri, USA. We simulated 10,000 one-hectare plots using random diameters generated from parameters of diameter distributions limited to diameters \u3e/= 13 cm and random densities generated from density estimates. Area-weighted mean biomass density (Mg/ha) for historical forests averaged 116 Mg/ha, ranging from 54 Mg/ha to 357 Mg/ha by small scale ecological subsections within Missouri landscapes. Area-weighted mean biomass density for current forests averaged 82 Mg/ha, ranging from 66 Mg/ha to 144 Mg/ha by ecological subsection for currently forested land. Biomass density of current forest was greater than historical biomass density for only 2 of 23 ecological subsections. Current carbon sequestration of 292 TgC on 7 million ha of forested land is less than half of the estimated historical total carbon sequestration of 693 TgC on 12 million ha. Cumulative tree cutting disturbances over time have produced forests that have less aboveground tree biomass and are uniform in biomass compared to estimates of historical biomass, which varied across Missouri landscapes. With continued relatively low rates of forest disturbance, current biomass per ha will likely increase to historical levels as the most competitive trees become larger in size and mean number of trees per ha decreases due to competition and self-thinning. Restoration of large diameter structure and forested extent of upland woodlands and floodplain forests could fulfill multiple conservation objectives, including carbon sequestration

Integrating LANDIS model and a multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate cumulative effects of forest management in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

Public forest management requires consideration of numerous objectives including protecting ecosystem health, sustaining habitats for native communities, providing sustainable forest products, and providing noncommodity ecosystem services. It is difficult to evaluate the long-term, cumulative effects and tradeoffs these and other associated management objectives. To demonstrate the capabilities of techniques suitable to support such evaluations we combined a spatially explicit landscape-scale, succession and disturbance model (LANDIS) with wildlife habitat suitability models and a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework to compare four management alternatives across a 700 km2 area of the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri, USA. We estimated the combined, cumulative effects of tree species succession, fire disturbance, fuel accumulation, fire hazard, wind disturbance and timber harvest on future species composition, age class distribution, timber products, and wildlife habitat suitability for eastern wild turkey and eastern gray squirrel. We applied a structured, multi-criteria, decision-making framework (PROMETHEE) to analyse forest conditions and to derive weighted composite scores for seven criteria applied to each alternative management scenario. The approach provides a systematic, repeatable, transparent, spatially explicit framework for evaluating the long-term, landscape-scale cumulative effects of management alternatives. The methodology does not encompass all the factors that influence decisions about public land management, but it captures many important ones. The underlying models provide a way to test and accumulate knowledge about forest response to succession and disturbance and to use those relationships to support decision making with the best available science

Integrating LANDIS model and a multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate cumulative effects of forest management in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

Public forest management requires consideration of numerous objectives including protecting ecosystem health, sustaining habitats for native communities, providing sustainable forest products, and providing noncommodity ecosystem services. It is difficult to evaluate the long-term, cumulative effects and tradeoffs these and other associated management objectives. To demonstrate the capabilities of techniques suitable to support such evaluations we combined a spatially explicit landscape-scale, succession and disturbance model (LANDIS) with wildlife habitat suitability models and a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework to compare four management alternatives across a 700 km2 area of the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri, USA. We estimated the combined, cumulative effects of tree species succession, fire disturbance, fuel accumulation, fire hazard, wind disturbance and timber harvest on future species composition, age class distribution, timber products, and wildlife habitat suitability for eastern wild turkey and eastern gray squirrel. We applied a structured, multi-criteria, decision-making framework (PROMETHEE) to analyse forest conditions and to derive weighted composite scores for seven criteria applied to each alternative management scenario. The approach provides a systematic, repeatable, transparent, spatially explicit framework for evaluating the long-term, landscape-scale cumulative effects of management alternatives. The methodology does not encompass all the factors that influence decisions about public land management, but it captures many important ones. The underlying models provide a way to test and accumulate knowledge about forest response to succession and disturbance and to use those relationships to support decision making with the best available science

Projection Methods

Natural Resource Ecology & Mgm

Futures Project Anticipates Changes and Challenges Facing Forests of the Northern United States

Natural Resource Ecology & Mgm

Five anthropogenic factors that will radically alter forest conditions and management needs in the Northern United States

The Northern United States includes the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota. With 70 million ha of forestland and 124 million people, it is the most densely forested (42% of land area) and most densely populated (74 people/km2) quadrant of the United States. Three recent, large-scale, multiresource assessments of forest conditions provide insight about trends and issues in the North, and collectively these and other supporting documents highlight factors that will be extraordinarily influential in large-scale northern forest management needs over the next 50 years. This review article discusses five of those factors: (1) northern forests lack age-class diversity and will uniformly grow old without management interventions or natural disturbances, (2) the area of forestland in the North will decrease as a consequence of expanding urban areas, (3) invasive species will alter forest density, diversity, and function, (4) management intensity for timber is low in northern forests and likely to remain so, and (5) management for nontimber objectives will gain relevance but will be challenging to implement. Suggested actions to address these factors include the following: develop quantifiable state and regional goals for forest diversity, understand the spatial and structural impacts of urban expansion on forests, develop symbiotic relationships among forest owners, forest managers, forest industry and the other stakeholders to support contemporary conservation goals, and work to understand the many dimensions of forest change. In the next several decades, climate change seems unlikely to overwhelm or negate any of the five factors discussed in this article; rather it will add another complicating dimension.Natural Resource Ecology and Managemen

Appendix A. Separate the contribution of vegetation type to fire occurrence from other factors in calculating fire initiation probability and fire ignition rate.

Separate the contribution of vegetation type to fire occurrence from other factors in calculating fire initiation probability and fire ignition rate