Modelling Uptake Sensitivities of Connected and Automated Vehicle Technologies

Connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies and services are rapidly developing and have the potential to revolutionise the transport systems. However, like many innovations, the uptake pathways are uncertain. The focus of this article is on improving understanding of factors that may affect the uptake of highly and fully automated vehicles, with a particular interest in the role of the internet of things (IoT). Using system dynamic modelling, sensitivity testing towards vehicle attributes (e.g., comfort, safety, familiarity) is carried out and scenarios were developed to explore how CAV uptake can vary under different conditions based around the quality of IoT provision. Utility and poor IoT are found to have the biggest influence. Attention is then given to CAV ‘services' that are characterized by the attributes explored earlier in the paper, and it is found that they could contribute to a 20% increase in market share

Second best toll and capacity optimisation in network: solution algorithm and policy implications

This paper looks at the first and second-best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting algorithm for solving the second-best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second-best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in conjunction with investments in the network

Overcoming the barriers to implementing urban road user charging schemes

Urban road user charging offers the potential to achieve significant improvements in urban transport, but is notoriously difficult to implement. Cities need guidance on the range of factors to be considered in planning and implementing such schemes. This paper summarises the results of a 3 year programme which has collated evidence on the issues of most concern to cities. A state of the art report has provided evidence on 14 themes, ranging from objectives and design to implementation and evaluation. A set of 16 case studies has reviewed experience in design and implementation across Europe. The paper summarises their findings, provides references to more detailed information, presents the resulting policy recommendations to European, national and local government, and outlines the areas in which further research is needed

Policy insights and modelling challenges: The case of passenger car powertrain technology transition in the European Union

Purpose: We are interested in what policy insights can be transferred from EU countries that have been most successful in introducing EVs to those that are debating policy options. As we use a model to explore this, we are also interested in the application of modelling, seeking to understand if real world policies and results can be replicated in a model and, more generally, the challenges to the use of modelling in policy appraisal. Methods: We use the EC-JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM), a system dynamics model based around the interactions of conceptual market agent groups in the EU. We perform iterative scenario tests to replicate the policies carried out in the Netherlands and the UK in recent years in an attempt to achieve similar results in EV sales. We then transfer the policy scenarios to other EU member states and assess the transferability of the policies. Results: Reasonable approximations of the Netherlands and UK EV policies and sales were achieved and implemented in other EU member states. Conclusion: We find that the PTTMAM is fit-for-purpose and can replicate successful policies to a certain degree. Policy success is sensitive to country specific conditions, and a system dynamics model like the PTTMAM can help identify which conditions react to which policy stimulus. There are challenges to modelling in policy appraisal, such as the subjectivity of the modeller and flexibility to specific conditions, which must be kept transparent for the model to be a relevant tool for policy making

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in old age

<p>Background: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been implicated as a risk factor for cognitive decline in old age, but results are inconsistent. We investigated the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).</p> <p>Methods: Prospective longitudinal study of men and women aged 70–82 years with pre-existing vascular disease or more than one risk factor to develop this condition (N = 5,154). Participants taking antithyroid medications, thyroid hormone supplementation and/or amiodarone were excluded. Thyroid function was measured at baseline: subclinical hyper- and hypothyroidism were defined as thyroid stimulating hormones (TSH) <0.45 mU/L or >4.50 mU/L respectively, with normal levels of free thyroxine (FT4). Cognitive performance was tested at baseline and at four subsequent time points during a mean follow-up of 3 years, using five neuropsychological performance tests.</p> <p>Results: Subclinical hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism were found in 65 and 161 participants, respectively. We found no consistent association of subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism with altered cognitive performance compared to euthyroid participants on the individual cognitive tests. Similarly, there was no association with rate of cognitive decline during follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion: We found no consistent evidence that subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism contribute to cognitive impairment or decline in old age. Although our data are not in support of treatment of subclinical thyroid dysfunction to prevent cognitive dysfunction in later life, only large randomized controlled trials can provide definitive evidence.</p&gt

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in old age

<p>Background: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been implicated as a risk factor for cognitive decline in old age, but results are inconsistent. We investigated the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cognitive decline in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).</p> <p>Methods: Prospective longitudinal study of men and women aged 70–82 years with pre-existing vascular disease or more than one risk factor to develop this condition (N = 5,154). Participants taking antithyroid medications, thyroid hormone supplementation and/or amiodarone were excluded. Thyroid function was measured at baseline: subclinical hyper- and hypothyroidism were defined as thyroid stimulating hormones (TSH) <0.45 mU/L or >4.50 mU/L respectively, with normal levels of free thyroxine (FT4). Cognitive performance was tested at baseline and at four subsequent time points during a mean follow-up of 3 years, using five neuropsychological performance tests.</p> <p>Results: Subclinical hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism were found in 65 and 161 participants, respectively. We found no consistent association of subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism with altered cognitive performance compared to euthyroid participants on the individual cognitive tests. Similarly, there was no association with rate of cognitive decline during follow-up.</p> <p>Conclusion: We found no consistent evidence that subclinical hyper- or hypothyroidism contribute to cognitive impairment or decline in old age. Although our data are not in support of treatment of subclinical thyroid dysfunction to prevent cognitive dysfunction in later life, only large randomized controlled trials can provide definitive evidence.</p&gt

Combined written and oral information prior to gastrointestinal endoscopy compared with oral information alone: a randomized trial

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how to most effectively deliver relevant information to patients scheduled for endoscopy. METHODS: To assess the effects of combined written and oral information, compared with oral information alone on the quality of information before endoscopy and the level of anxiety. We designed a prospective study in two Swiss teaching hospitals which enrolled consecutive patients scheduled for endoscopy over a three-month period. Patients were randomized either to receiving, along with the appointment notice, an explanatory leaflet about the upcoming examination, or to oral information delivered by each patient's doctor. Evaluation of quality of information was rated on scales between 0 (none received) and 5 (excellent). The analysis of outcome variables was performed on the basis of intention to treat-analysis. Multivariate analysis of predictors of information scores was performed by linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 718 eligible patients 577 (80%) returned their questionnaire. Patients who received written leaflets (N = 278) rated the quality of information they received higher than those informed verbally (N = 299), for all 8 quality-of-information items. Differences were significant regarding information about the risks of the procedure (3.24 versus 2.26, p < 0.001), how to prepare for the procedure (3.56 versus 3.23, p = 0.036), what to expect after the procedure (2.99 versus 2.59, p < 0.001), and the 8 quality-of-information items (3.35 versus 3.02, p = 0.002). The two groups reported similar levels of anxiety before procedure (p = 0.66), pain during procedure (p = 0.20), tolerability throughout the procedure (p = 0.76), problems after the procedure (p = 0.22), and overall rating of the procedure between poor and excellent (p = 0.82). CONCLUSION: Written information led to more favourable assessments of the quality of information and had no impact on patient anxiety nor on the overall assessment of the endoscopy. Because structured and comprehensive written information is perceived as beneficial by patients, gastroenterologists should clearly explain to their patients the risks, benefits and alternatives of endoscopic procedures. Trial registration: Current Controlled trial number: ISRCTN34382782

The effectiveness of interventions to change six health behaviours: a review of reviews

Background: Several World Health Organisation reports over recent years have highlighted the high incidence of chronic diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer. Contributory factors include unhealthy diets, alcohol and tobacco use and sedentary lifestyles. This paper reports the findings of a review of reviews of behavioural change interventions to reduce unhealthy behaviours or promote healthy behaviours. We included six different health-related behaviours in the review: healthy eating, physical exercise, smoking, alcohol misuse, sexual risk taking (in young people) and illicit drug use. We excluded reviews which focussed on pharmacological treatments or those which required intensive treatments (e. g. for drug or alcohol dependency). Methods: The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and several Ovid databases were searched for systematic reviews of interventions for the six behaviours (updated search 2008). Two reviewers applied the inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the quality of the reviews. The results were discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results: We included 103 reviews published between 1995 and 2008. The focus of interventions varied, but those targeting specific individuals were generally designed to change an existing behaviour (e. g. cigarette smoking, alcohol misuse), whilst those aimed at the general population or groups such as school children were designed to promote positive behaviours (e. g. healthy eating). Almost 50% (n = 48) of the reviews focussed on smoking (either prevention or cessation). Interventions that were most effective across a range of health behaviours included physician advice or individual counselling, and workplace- and school-based activities. Mass media campaigns and legislative interventions also showed small to moderate effects in changing health behaviours. Generally, the evidence related to short-term effects rather than sustained/longer-term impact and there was a relative lack of evidence on how best to address inequalities. Conclusions: Despite limitations of the review of reviews approach, it is encouraging that there are interventions that are effective in achieving behavioural change. Further emphasis in both primary studies and secondary analysis (e.g. systematic reviews) should be placed on assessing the differential effectiveness of interventions across different population subgroups to ensure that health inequalities are addressed.</p

Genetic Predisposition for Type 2 Diabetes, but Not for Overweight/Obesity, Is Associated with a Restricted Adipogenesis

BACKGROUND: Development of Type 2 diabetes, like obesity, is promoted by a genetic predisposition. Although several genetic variants have been identified they only account for a small proportion of risk. We have asked if genetic risk is associated with abnormalities in storing excess lipids in the abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We recruited 164 lean and 500 overweight/obese individuals with or without a genetic predisposition for Type 2 diabetes or obesity. Adipose cell size was measured in biopsies from the abdominal adipose tissue as well as insulin sensitivity (HOMA index), HDL-cholesterol and Apo AI and Apo B. 166 additional non-obese individuals with a genetic predisposition for Type 2 diabetes underwent a euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp to measure insulin sensitivity. Genetic predisposition for Type 2 diabetes, but not for overweight/obesity, was associated with inappropriate expansion of the adipose cells, reduced insulin sensitivity and a more proatherogenic lipid profile in non-obese individuals. However, obesity per se induced a similar expansion of adipose cells and dysmetabolic state irrespective of genetic predisposition. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Genetic predisposition for Type 2 diabetes, but not obesity, is associated with an impaired ability to recruit new adipose cells to store excess lipids in the subcutaneous adipose tissue, thereby promoting ectopic lipid deposition. This becomes particularly evident in non-obese individuals since obesity per se promotes a dysmetabolic state irrespective of genetic predisposition. These results identify a novel susceptibility factor making individuals with a genetic predisposition for Type 2 diabetes particularly sensitive to the environment and caloric excess

An FPGA-based track finder for the L1 trigger of the CMS experiment at the high luminosity LHC

A new tracking system is under development for operation in the CMS experiment at the High Luminosity LHC. It includes an outer tracker which will construct stubs, built by correlating clusters in two closely spaced sensor layers for the rejection of hits from low transverse momentum tracks, and transmit them off-detector at 40 MHz. If tracker data is to contribute to keeping the Level-1 trigger rate at around 750 kHz under increased luminosity, a crucial component of the upgrade will be the ability to identify tracks with transverse momentum above 3 GeV/c by building tracks out of stubs. A concept for an FPGA-based track finder using a fully time-multiplexed architecture is presented, where track candidates are identified using a projective binning algorithm based on the Hough Transform. A hardware system based on the MP7 MicroTCA processing card has been assembled, demonstrating a realistic slice of the track finder in order to help gauge the performance and requirements for a full system. This paper outlines the system architecture and algorithms employed, highlighting some of the first results from the hardware demonstrator and discusses the prospects and performance of the completed track finder