Life Expectancy and Years of Life Lost in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Findings from the NHANES III Follow-Up Study

RATIONALE: Previous studies have demonstrated that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes increased mortality in the general population. But life expectancy and the years of life lost have not been reported. OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality, examine how it varies with age, sex, and other risk factors, and determine how life expectancy is affected. METHODS: We constructed mortality models using the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, adjusting for age, sex, race, and major medical conditions. We used these to compute life expectancy and the years of life lost. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Pulmonary function testing classified patients as having Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 COPD or restriction. COPD is associated with only a modest reduction in life expectancy for never smokers, but with a very large reduction for current and former smokers. At age 65, the reductions in male life expectancy for stage 1, stage 2, and stages 3 or 4 disease in current smokers are 0.3 years, 2.2 years, and 5.8 years. These are in addition to the 3.5 years lost due to smoking. In former smokers the reductions are 1.4 years and 5.6 years for stage 2 and stages 3 or 4 disease, and in never smokers they are 0.7 and 1.3 years. CONCLUSIONS: Persons with COPD have an increased risk of mortality compared to those who do not, with consequent reduction in life expectancy. The effect is most marked in current smokers, and this is further reason for smokers to quit

Lower Rates of Heart Failure and All-Cause Hospitalizations During Pulmonary Artery Pressure-Guided Therapy for Ambulatory Heart Failure: One-Year Outcomes From the CardioMEMS Post-Approval Study.

BACKGROUND: Ambulatory hemodynamic monitoring with an implantable pulmonary artery (PA) sensor is approved for patients with New York Heart Association Class III heart failure (HF) and a prior HF hospitalization (HFH) within 12 months. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy and safety of PA pressure-guided therapy in routine clinical practice with special focus on subgroups defined by sex, race, and ejection fraction. METHODS: This multi-center, prospective, open-label, observational, single-arm trial of 1200 patients across 104 centers within the United States with New York Heart Association class III HF and a prior HFH within 12 months evaluated patients undergoing PA pressure sensor implantation between September 1, 2014, and October 11, 2017. The primary efficacy outcome was the difference between rates of adjudicated HFH 1 year after compared with the 1 year before sensor implantation. Safety end points were freedom from device- or system-related complications at 2 years and freedom from pressure sensor failure at 2 years. RESULTS: Mean age for the population was 69 years, 37.7% were women, 17.2% were non-White, and 46.8% had preserved ejection fraction. During the year after sensor implantation, the mean rate of daily pressure transmission was 76±24% and PA pressures declined significantly. The rate of HFH was significantly lower at 1 year compared with the year before implantation (0.54 versus 1.25 events/patient-years, hazard ratio 0.43 [95% CI, 0.39-0.47], CONCLUSIONS: In routine clinical practice as in clinical trials, PA pressure-guided therapy for HF was associated with lower PA pressures, lower rates of HFH and all-cause hospitalization, and low rates of adverse events across a broad range of patients with symptomatic HF and prior HFH. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02279888

Life expectancy in multiple sclerosis by EDSS score

The median survival time of newly-diagnosed MS patients without severe disabilities is approximately 30-35 years. The prognosis after the onset of severe disability has not been reported. Based on Harding et al.’s 2018 study of the Southeast Wales MS registry, we calculated life expectancies according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Upon loss of independent ambulation (EDSS 6-6.5; mean age 51.2) life expectancy was 13.3 additional years. At EDSS 9-9.5 (mean age 70.8) life expectancy was 1.1 additional years. These figures provide an empirical basis for discussions of advanced MS care planning

DEVELOPMENTAL MEDICINE & CHILD NEUROLOGY Recent trends in cerebral palsy survival. Part II: individual survival prognosis CDER Client Development Evaluation Report

AIM The aim of the study was to determine survival probabilities and life expectancies for individuals with cerebral palsy based on data collected over a 28-year period in California. METHOD We identified all individuals with cerebral palsy, aged 4 years or older, who were clients of the California Department of Developmental Services between 1983 and 2010. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed for 4-year-old children, and the estimated survival probabilities were adjusted to reflect trends in mortality by calendar year. For persons aged 15, 30, 45, and 60 years, separate Poisson regression models were used to estimate age-, sex-, and disability-specific mortality rates. These mortality rates were adjusted to reflect trends of improved survival, and life expectancies were obtained using life table methods. RESULTS The sample comprised 16 440, 14 609, 11 735, 7023, and 2375 persons at ages 4, 15, 30, 45, and 60 years, respectively. In 1983, 50% of 4-year-old children who did not lift their heads in the prone position and were tube fed lived to age 10.9 years. By 2010, the median age at death had increased to 17.1 years. In ambulatory children the probability of survival to adulthood did not change by more than 1%. Life expectancies for adolescents and adults were lower for those with more severe limitations in motor function and feeding skills, and decreased with advancing age. Life expectancies for tube-fed adolescents and adults increased by 1 to 3 years, depending on age and pattern of disability, over the course of the study period. INTERPRETATION Over the past three decades in California there have been significant improvements in the survival of children with very severe disabilities. There have also been improvements to the life expectancy of tube-fed adults, though to a lesser extent than in children. For individuals with cerebral palsy (CP), the determination of survival prognosis and life expectancy is important for medical and financial planning, including the determination of expected total lifetime care costs. Survival probabilities or life expectancies for persons with CP have been reported in several populations, including California, the UK, Australia, Canada, Sweden, and Japan. 1-14 The most useful studies for prognosis are those that provide figures specific to children or adults of a particular age and severity of disability. In such studies, survival probabilities have been shown to be very similar across countries. In this article we provide updated CP survival prognoses that have been adjusted to reflect the mortality trends noted in our companion article. To aid comparison with prior research, we have stratified study participants according to the same motor function and feeding skill groups used in our 1998 and 2008 studies. 2,3 For 4-year-old children, we provide probabilities of survival to adulthood. For adolescents and adults, we update our previous estimates of life expectancy