Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections

We showed 10-second, silent video clips of unfamiliar gubernatorial debates to a group of experimental participants and asked them to predict the election outcomes. The participants' predictions explain more than 20 percent of the variation in the actual two-party vote share across the 58 elections in our study, and their importance survives a range of controls, including state fixed effects. In a horse race of alternative forecasting models, participants' visual forecasts significantly outperform economic variables in predicting vote shares, and are comparable in predictive power to a measure of incumbency status. Adding policy information to the video clips by turning on the sound tends, if anything, to worsen participants' accuracy, suggesting that naïveté may be an asset in some forecasting tasks.

Fetal Load and the Evolution of Lumbar Lordosis in Bipedal Hominins

Anthropolog

Reducing the weak lensing noise for the gravitational wave Hubble diagram using the non-Gaussianity of the magnification distribution

Gravitational wave sources are a promising cosmological standard candle because their intrinsic luminosities are determined by fundamental physics (and are insensitive to dust extinction). They are, however, affected by weak lensing magnification due to the gravitational lensing from structures along the line of sight. This lensing is a source of uncertainty in the distance determination, even in the limit of perfect standard candle measurements. It is commonly believed that the uncertainty in the distance to an ensemble of gravitational wave sources is limited by the standard deviation of the lensing magnification distribution divided by the square root of the number of sources. Here we show that by exploiting the non-Gaussian nature of the lensing magnification distribution, we can improve this distance determination, typically by a factor of 2--3; we provide a fitting formula for the effective distance accuracy as a function of redshift for sources where the lensing noise dominates.Comment: matches PRD accepted version (expanded description of the cosmological parameter space + minor changes

Microfluidic chromatography for early stage evaluation of biopharmaceutical binding and separation conditions

Optimization of separation conditions for biopharmaceuticals requires evaluation of a large number of process variables. To miniaturize this evaluation a microfluidic column (1.5 mu L volume and 1cm height) was fabricated and packed with a typical process scale resin. The device was assessed by comparison to a protein separation at conventional laboratory scale. This was based upon measurement of the quality of packing and generation of breakthrough and elution curves. Dynamic binding capacities from the microfluidic column compared well with the laboratory scale. Microfluidic scale gradient elution separations also equated to the laboratory column three orders of magnitude larger in scale

The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World

Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro. The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017. ISBN: 9781501109874 (paperback, $20.00)

The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World

Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro. The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017. ISBN: 9781501109874 (paperback, $20.00)

Feedback cooling of a single trapped ion

Based on a real-time measurement of the motion of a single ion in a Paul trap, we demonstrate its electro-mechanical cooling below the Doppler limit by homodyne feedback control (cold damping). The feedback cooling results are well described by a model based on a quantum mechanical Master Equation.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure