Development of a predictive model for identifying women vulnerable to HIV in Chicago

Introduction: Researchers in the United States have created several models to predict persons most at risk for HIV. Many of these predictive models use data from all persons newly diagnosed with HIV, the majority of whom are men, and specifically men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, risk factors identified by these models are biased toward features that apply only to men or capture sexual behaviours of MSM. We sought to create a predictive model for women using cohort data from two major hospitals in Chicago with large opt-out HIV screening programs. Methods: We matched 48 newly diagnosed women to 192 HIV-negative women based on number of previous encounters at University of Chicago or Rush University hospitals. We examined data for each woman for the two years prior to either their HIV diagnosis or their last encounter. We assessed risk factors including demographic characteristics and clinical diagnoses taken from patient electronic medical records (EMR) using odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. We created a multivariable logistic regression model and measured predictive power with the area under the curve (AUC). In the multivariable model, age group, race, and ethnicity were included a priori due to increased risk for HIV among specific demographic groups. Results: The following clinical diagnoses were significant at the bivariate level and were included in the model: pregnancy (OR 1.96 (1.00, 3.84)), hepatitis C (OR 5.73 (1.24, 26.51)), substance use (OR 3.12 (1.12, 8.65)) and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) chlamydia, gonorrhoea, or syphilis. We also a priori included demographic factors that are associated with HIV. Our final model had an AUC of 0.74 and included healthcare site, age group, race, ethnicity, pregnancy, hepatitis C, substance use, and STI diagnosis. Conclusions: Our predictive model showed acceptable discrimination between those who were and were not newly diagnosed with HIV. We identified risk factors such as recent pregnancy, recent hepatitis C diagnosis, and substance use in addition to the traditionally used recent STI diagnosis that can be incorporated by health systems to detect women who are vulnerable to HIV and would benefit from preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP).</p

Distinct intestinal microbial signatures linked to accelerated systemic and intestinal biological aging

Abstract Background People living with HIV (PLWH), even when viral replication is controlled through antiretroviral therapy (ART), experience persistent inflammation. This inflammation is partly attributed to intestinal microbial dysbiosis and translocation, which may lead to non-AIDS-related aging-associated comorbidities. The extent to which living with HIV — influenced by the infection itself, ART usage, sexual orientation, or other associated factors — affects the biological age of the intestines is unclear. Furthermore, the role of microbial dysbiosis and translocation in the biological aging of PLWH remains to be elucidated. To investigate these uncertainties, we used a systems biology approach, analyzing colon and ileal biopsies, blood samples, and stool specimens from PLWH on ART and people living without HIV (PLWoH) as controls. Results PLWH exhibit accelerated biological aging in the colon, ileum, and blood, as measured by various epigenetic aging clocks, compared to PLWoH. Investigating the relationship between microbial translocation and biological aging, PLWH had decreased levels of tight junction proteins in the intestines, along with increased microbial translocation. This intestinal permeability correlated with faster biological aging and increased inflammation. When investigating the relationship between microbial dysbiosis and biological aging, the intestines of PLWH had higher abundance of specific pro-inflammatory bacteria, such as Catenibacterium and Prevotella. These bacteria correlated with accelerated biological aging. Conversely, the intestines of PLWH had lower abundance of bacteria known for producing the anti-inflammatory short-chain fatty acids, such as Subdoligranulum and Erysipelotrichaceae, and these bacteria were associated with slower biological aging. Correlation networks revealed significant links between specific microbial genera in the colon and ileum (but not in feces), increased aging, a rise in pro-inflammatory microbe-related metabolites (e.g., those in the tryptophan metabolism pathway), and a decrease in anti-inflammatory metabolites like hippuric acid. Conclusions We identified specific microbial compositions and microbiota-related metabolic pathways that are intertwined with intestinal and systemic biological aging. This microbial signature of biological aging is likely reflecting various factors including the HIV infection itself, ART usage, sexual orientation, and other aspects associated with living with HIV. A deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying these connections could offer potential strategies to mitigate accelerated aging and its associated health complications. Video Abstrac

Severe Monkeypox in Hospitalized Patients - United States, August 10-October 10, 2022.

As of October 21, 2022, a total of 27,884 monkeypox cases (confirmed and probable) have been reported in the United States.§ Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men have constituted a majority of cases, and persons with HIV infection and those from racial and ethnic minority groups have been disproportionately affected (1,2). During previous monkeypox outbreaks, severe manifestations of disease and poor outcomes have been reported among persons with HIV infection, particularly those with AIDS (3-5). This report summarizes findings from CDC clinical consultations provided for 57 patients aged ≥18 years who were hospitalized with severe manifestations of monkeypox¶ during August 10-October 10, 2022, and highlights three clinically representative cases. Overall, 47 (82%) patients had HIV infection, four (9%) of whom were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) before monkeypox diagnosis. Most patients were male (95%) and 68% were non-Hispanic Black (Black). Overall, 17 (30%) patients received intensive care unit (ICU)-level care, and 12 (21%) have died. As of this report, monkeypox was a cause of death or contributing factor in five of these deaths; six deaths remain under investigation to determine whether monkeypox was a causal or contributing factor; and in one death, monkeypox was not a cause or contributing factor.** Health care providers and public health professionals should be aware that severe morbidity and mortality associated with monkeypox have been observed during the current outbreak in the United States (6,7), particularly among highly immunocompromised persons. Providers should test all sexually active patients with suspected monkeypox for HIV at the time of monkeypox testing unless a patient is already known to have HIV infection. Providers should consider early commencement and extended duration of monkeypox-directed therapy†† in highly immunocompromised patients with suspected or laboratory-diagnosed monkeypox.§§ Engaging all persons with HIV in sustained care remains a critical public health priority

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccinationResearch in context

Background: While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. Methods: In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7–15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. Findings: Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05–0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01–0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. Interpretation: Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. Funding: National Institutes of Health

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccinationResearch in context

Summary: Background: While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. Methods: In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7–15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. Findings: Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05–0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01–0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. Interpretation: Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. Funding: National Institutes of Health