Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health conditions.OBJECTIVE To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of CKD, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual-level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5 222 711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected from April 1970 through January 2017. A 2-stage analysis was performed, with each study first analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Because clinical variables were often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately for participants with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external cohorts (n = 2 253 540).EXPOSURES Demographic and clinical factors.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2).RESULTS Among 4 441 084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% women), 660 856 incident cases (14.9%) of reduced eGFR occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Of 781 627 participants with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% women), 313 646 incident cases (40%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5-year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, race/ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, body mass index, and albuminuria concentration. For participants with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A(1c), and the interaction between the 2. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5-year predicted probability of 0.845 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.789-0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (IQR, 0.750-0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 of 13 study populations (69%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed from more than 5 million individuals from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and variable calibration in diverse populations. Further study is needed to determine whether use of these equations to identify individuals at risk of developing chronic kidney disease will improve clinical care and patient outcomes.</p

Decline in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and Subsequent Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease and Mortality

Peer reviewedPostprin

Perceptions of hypertension treatment among patients with and without diabetes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the availability of a wide selection of effective antihypertensive treatments and the existence of clear treatment guidelines, many patients with hypertension do not have controlled blood pressure. We conducted a qualitative study to explore beliefs and perceptions regarding hypertension and gain an understanding of barriers to treatment among patients with and without diabetes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ten focus groups were held for patients with hypertension in three age ranges, with and without diabetes. The topic guides for the groups were: What will determine your future health status? What do you understand by "raised blood pressure"? How should one go about treating raised blood pressure?</p> <p>Results</p> <p>People with hypertension tend to see hypertension not as a disease but as a risk factor for myocardial infarction or stroke. They do not view it as a continuous, degenerative process of damage to the vascular system, but rather as a binary risk process, within which you can either be a winner (not become ill) or a loser. This makes non-adherence to treatment a gamble with a potential positive outcome. Patients with diabetes are more likely to accept hypertension as a chronic illness with minor impact on their routine, and less important than their diabetes. Most participants overestimated the effect of stress as a causative factor believing that a reduction in levels of stress is the most important treatment modality. Many believe they "know their bodies" and are able to control their blood pressure. Patients without diabetes were most likely to adopt a treatment which is a compromise between their physician's suggestions and their own understanding of hypertension.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patient denial and non-adherence to hypertension treatment is a prevalent phenomenon reflecting a conscious choice made by the patient, based on his knowledge and perceptions regarding the medical condition and its treatment. There is a need to change perception of hypertension from a gamble to a disease process. Changing the message from the existing one of "silent killer" to one that depicts hypertension as a manageable disease process may have the potential to significantly increase adherence rates.</p

Persistence with Statins and Onset of Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

In a retrospective cohort study, Gabriel Chodick and colleagues find a significant association between persistence with statin therapy and reduced risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis, but only a modest decrease in risk of osteoarthritis

Development of Risk Prediction Equations for Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

IMPORTANCE ‐ Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease  could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health  conditions.  OBJECTIVE – To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of chronic kidney  disease, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).  DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS – Individual level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from  the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5,222,711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected  from April, 1970 through January, 2017. A two‐stage analysis was performed, with each study first  analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Since clinical variables were  often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately within participants  with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external  cohorts (N=2,253,540). EXPOSURE Demographic and clinical factors.  MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES – Incident eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2.  RESULTS – In 4,441,084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% female), there were  660,856 incident cases of reduced eGFR during a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years. In 781,627 participants  with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% female), there were 313,646 incident cases during a mean follow‐up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5‐year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, BMI, and albuminuria. For participants  with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction  between the two. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5‐year predicted probability of  0.845 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.789‐0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (25th – 75th percentile, 0.750‐0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 out of 13 (69%) study populations had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was  similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 out of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE – Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed in over 5 million people from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and  variable calibration in diverse populations

Serum potassium and adverse outcomes across the range of kidney function: a CKD Prognosis Consortium meta-analysis.

Aims: Both hypo- and hyperkalaemia can have immediate deleterious physiological effects, and less is known about long-term risks. The objective was to determine the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and end-stage renal disease associated with potassium levels across the range of kidney function and evaluate for consistency across cohorts in a global consortium. Methods and results: We performed an individual-level data meta-analysis of 27 international cohorts [10 general population, 7 high cardiovascular risk, and 10 chronic kidney disease (CKD)] in the CKD Prognosis Consortium. We used Cox regression followed by random-effects meta-analysis to assess the relationship between baseline potassium and adverse outcomes, adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics, overall and across strata of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. We included 1 217 986 participants followed up for a mean of 6.9 years. The average age was 55 ± 16 years, average eGFR was 83 ± 23 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 17% had moderate- to-severe increased albuminuria levels. The mean baseline potassium was 4.2 ± 0.4 mmol/L. The risk of serum potassium of >5.5 mmol/L was related to lower eGFR and higher albuminuria. The risk relationship between potassium levels and adverse outcomes was U-shaped, with the lowest risk at serum potassium of 4-4.5 mmol/L. Compared with a reference of 4.2 mmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.29] at 5.5 mmol/L and 1.49 (95% CI 1.26-1.76) at 3.0 mmol/L. Risks were similar by eGFR, albuminuria, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor use, and across cohorts. Conclusions: Outpatient potassium levels both above and below the normal range are consistently associated with adverse outcomes, with similar risk relationships across eGFR and albuminuria

Seasonality in Birth Weight: Review of Global Patterns and Potential Causes

Birth weight is the single most significant determinant of infant mortality and the chances of a newborn to experience healthy development. Low birth weight also appears to be related to higher risks of several important chronic conditions, such as ischemic heart disease, non-insulin-dependent diabetes, and cancer in adults. Thus factors that influence in utero growth and birth weight may have a serious effect on health outcomes many years later in life. Analysis of seasonal variations in birth weights may enable us to suggest specific factors that influence this measure. In this review we summarize the literature on seasonal variations in birth weight. Although causes of seasonal variation in developing regions are more clearly understood, it is not yet clear which factors affect apparent seasonal variation in birth weight in developed countries. In our analysis we observed a pattern of seasonal variations in developed countries that differed between low-, middle-, and high-latitude countries, and we suggest several mechanisms that may be responsible for this diversity. Namely, we suggest that in middlelatitude climates, the large annual temperature range may cause low birth weights during summer, whereas in high- and low-latitude regions variations in sunlight exposure between seasons may contribute to low birth weights apparent during winter. Identification of the suggested causal environmental factors may have public health implications in the development of primary prevention programs for low birth weight and macrosomia in developed countries

Excess lifetime cancer mortality risk attributable to radiation exposure from computed tomography examinations in children

The use of computed tomography in Israel has been growing rapidly during recent decades. The major drawback of this important technology is the exposure to ionizing radiation, especially among children who have increased organ radiosensitivity and a long lifetime to potentially develop radiation-related cancer. To estimate the number of excess lifetime cancer deaths related to annual CT scans performed in children in Israel. We used CT scan utilization data from 1999 to 2003 obtained from the second largest health management organization in the country to project age and gender-specific CT scan use nationwide. Based on published organ doses for common CT examinations and radiation-related cancer mortality risk estimates from studies in survivors of the atomic bomb, we estimated the excess lifetime risks for cancer mortality attributed to use of CT in children and adolescents (up to 18 years old) in Israel. We estimated that 17,686 pediatric scans were conducted annually in Israel during 1999-2003. We project that 9.5 lifetime deaths would be associated with 1 year of pediatric CT scanning. This number represents an excess of 0.29% over the total number of patients who are eventually estimated to die from cancer in their lifetime. Pediatric CT scans in Israel may result in a small but not negligible increased lifetime risk for cancer mortality. Because of the uncertainty regarding radiation effects at low doses, our estimates of CT-related cancer mortality should be considered with caution. Nevertheless, physicians, CT technologists, and health authorities should work together to minimize the radiation dose for children to as low as reasonably achievable and encourage responsible use of this essential diagnostic too