Improving rural wages in India

The purpose of this paper is to identify public policy and program interventions that can increase real rural wage rates and hence reduce rural poverty. Rural wages can only increase if the demand for rural labor grows faster than its supply. The report states that whether public policies increase real agricultural wages depends on whether they promote rural non farm employment to absorb the growing labor force. For example, although educational infrastructure, public irrigation, and regulation of markets raise agricultural output, they depress real agricultural wages because they do not increase nonfarm employment. In contrast, rural electrification, roads and banks can increase real agricultural wages, because they increase nonfarm employment. Rural financial institutions and electrification reallocate labor from agriculture to rural nonfarm activities, however, while roads promote both farm and nonfarm employment.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

The impact of formal finance on the rural economy of India

India has systematically pursued a supply-led approach to increasing agriculturalcredit. Its objectives have been to replace moneylenders, to relieve farmers of indebtedness, and to achieve higher levels of agricultural credit, investment, and output. India's success in replacing moneylenders has been outstanding. Between 1951 and 1971 their share of rural credit appears to have dropped from more than 80 percent to 36 percent. (It may have dropped to as low as 16 percent by 1981, but that estimate is disputed). Still, institutional credit is far from reaching all farmers. Only about a quarter of cultivators borrow, and no more than 2 percent take out long-term loans. Most small farmers have little access to credit, and long-term credit goes mostly to large farmers. Overall, farm debt has probably not increased sharply in real terms, as formal credit has primarily substituted for credit from other sources. Moreover, with the rapid growth of commercial banks in the 1970s, the system mobilized more deposits than it lent in rural areas in 1981. Of course, enhanced deposit services are a useful service of the rural population, but one must ask what has been the impact of heavy rural credit and better financial services on agricultural investment, production, and rural incomes. The authors'econometric results suggest that the rapid expansion of commercial banks in rural areas has had a substantially positive effect on rural nonfarm employment and output. The availability of better banking facilities appears to have overcome one of the obstacles to locating nonfarm activities in rural areas. Expanded rural finance has had less of an effect on output and employment in agriculture than in the nonfarm sector. The effect on crop output has not been great, despite the fact that credit to agricluture has greatly increased the use of fertilizer and private investment in machines and livestock. There has been more impact on inputs than on output, so the additional capital investment has been more important in substituting for agriclutural labor than in increasing crop output. But overall, rural credit and expansion of the rural financial system have had a positive effect on rural wages. Creating nonfarm jobs has apparently added more to total employment than the substitution of capital for labor has subtracted it in agriculture. So, wages have risen even for agricultural workers, albeit modestly. The supply-led approach to agricultural credit that has been pursued for three decades has clearly benefited current borrowers and farm households formerly indebted to moneylenders. It has also spurred fertilizer use and investment in agriculture. It has been less successful in generating viable institutions - and has failed to generate agricultural employment. The policy's costs to India's government have been high as portfolio losses associated with poor repayment ultimately have to be borne by the government or one of its institutions under optimistic assumptions. The benefits of the agricultural income are at best no more than 13 percent higher than the cost to the government of the extra agricultural credit. If assumptions about the cost of supplying the credit and about repayment rates are less optimistic, the social costs - and the costs to the government of providing the credit - would have exceeded the benefits in agricultural income. The expansion of commercial banks to rural areas paid off in nonfarm growth, employment, and rural wages. The question is: Could these benefits have been achieved without imposing agricultural credit targets on the commercial banks and credit cooperatives? Or did the commercial banks expand only because they were forced to lend to agriculture? The authors could not answer these questions with the data at hand.Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Agricultural Research

The effect of formal credit on output and employment in rural India

This paper estimates the output, investment, employment and wage effect of institutional credit using district-level panel data from India. Using a two-stage model to distinguish demand for formal credit from supply, the authors conclude that increased formal credit has a positive effect on crop production, on the use of fertilizer, and on private investment in machines and livestock. However, the effect of expanded credit on crop output is small. Crop output improves more because of increased use of fertilizer than because of capital investments, which merely substitute for labor.Credit decreases farm employment, yet increases the real agricultural wage because of its overwhelmingly positive effect on rural nonfarm employment. In short, improved financial intermediation in rural India greatly improves rural nonfarm employment and output, has a modest effect on crop output, and tends to substitute capital investment for farm labor.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Agricultural Research,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform

Microfinance and poverty - evidence using panel data from Bangladesh

Micro-finance supports mainly informal activities that often have low market demand. It may be thus hypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of micro-finance in an economy with low economic growth is modest or nonexistent. The observed borrower-level poverty impact is then a result of income redistribution or short-run income generation. The author addresses these questions using household level panel data from Bangladesh. The findings confirm that micro-finance benefits the poorest and has sustained impact in reducing poverty among program participants. It also has positive spillover impact, reducing poverty at the village level. But the effect is more pronounced in reducing extreme rather than moderate poverty.Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Financial Intermediation,Poverty Assessment

Poverty and income seasonality in Bangladesh

Seasonal poverty in Bangladesh, locally known as monga, refers to seasonal deprivation of food during the pre-harvest season of Aman rice. An analysis of household income and expenditure survey data shows that average household income and consumption are much lower during monga season than in other seasons, and that seasonal income greatly influences seasonal consumption. However, lack of income and consumption smoothing is more acute in greater Rangpur, the North West region, than in other regions, causing widespread seasonal deprivation. The analysis shows that agricultural income diversification accompanied by better access to micro-credit, irrigation, education, electrification, social safety net programs, and dynamic labor markets has helped reduce seasonality in income and poverty in regions other than Rangpur in the recent past. Hence, government policies should promote income diversification through infrastructure investments and provide income transfers to the targeted poor to contain income seasonality and poverty in this impoverished part of Bangladesh.Rural Poverty Reduction,Safety Nets and Transfers,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality

How structure of production determines the demand for human capital

On the issue of women's status, the objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it attempts to make precise some of the claims and allegations regarding the existence of bias against females in the allocation of resources within the household. The idea is to formulate these questions explicitly, so that it is possible to identify whether and to what degree there is evidence of this bias. Second, it identifies causes of this bias with the objective of isolating key factors that can be used for policy. In contrast to earlier studies that attemptto account for male-female differences in human capital, the authors do not assume any discrimination against females either at home (in the parent's utility function) or in the market (in the returns to human capital). It is assumed, however, that women have a comparative advantage in working in some sectors of the economy. Thus, increases in the shares of these sectors will increase the demand for female human capital. This explicit attention to factors that can be used as policy instruments -- and the relative neglect of factors reflecting gender bias in tastes -- is the point of departure from earlier literature. This paper develops the theory, tests the hypotheses, and concludes with a discussion of the policy implications.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Housing&Human Habitats,Environmental Economics&Policies