War on Terror: Do Military Measures Matter? Empirical Analysis of Post 9/11 Period in Pakistan

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the causal relationship between military spending, terrorist attacks and intensity of terrorism in Pakistan, by applying ARDL approach to cointegration and Innovation Accounting approach for causality analysis. The results indicate that war on terror is the major determinant of military spending followed by terrorism intensity and the number of terrorist attacks respectively. The study further finds that terrorism intensity and terrorist attacks Granger-cause military spending but the reverse causality is found absent. The failure of military measures to curtail terrorism and its intensity induces one to suggest greater involvement of civil intelligence agencies by raising their budgets instead of pure military budget.Causality Analysis; Military Spending; Civil Intelligence; Terrorism

Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?

This paper analyzes the relationship between terrorism and economic growth for Pakistan by incorporating capital and trade openness. We used the data from 1971-2010 and have applied ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the long run relationship between the variables. The VECM Granger causality approach is used to detect the direction of causality between terrorism and economic growth. Our empirical results confirm the existence of long run relationship between economic growth and terrorism. The Granger causality analysis indicates bidirectional causality between terrorism and capital, trade openness and capital, and terrorism and trade openness. However, unidirectional causality is found running from economic growth to terrorism.Terrorism, Economic Growth, Cointegration and Causality

Saving-investment Behaviour in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation

This paper explores the saving-investment behaviour in Pakistan by identifying their patterns over time and across selected Asian countries. Further potential determinants were empirically tested, based on theoretical foundations of modelling for saving and investment behaviour. Savings in Pakistan for our sample period showed a positive response to GDP growth and government current expenditure while it remained insensitive to interest rates. On the other side, domestic savings and short-run expected returns positively affected investment whereas uncertainty reduced investment.saving Investment, Pakistan

Modern Services Exports from Emerging Countries—Perspectives and Opportunities

Traditionally, developed countries are the major exporters of services; however, technological developments in IT and communications over the last two decades have made it possible for developing countries to exploit their comparative advantage in some modern services. The driving force for this comparative advantage is the large pool of semi-skilled and skilled graduates in emerging countries who can deliver their services across borders, using advanced communication technologies. Why do emerging countries have increasing modern services exports? How are these exports explained by theory? What are the factors behind this export growth and the reasons to expect future growth? These are some of the important questions that researchers and policy-makers would like to find answers to and an attempt has been made to answer these questions in this paper. Identification of the sources of services export growth from emerging and developing countries can be attempted through established theories of goods trade and production. This paper reviews selected theory and empirical work in order to explain the underlying causes for growing exports of services. Causes for the export of modern services may include a comparative advantage of the exporting country, cost reduction for the importing firm through outsourcing, reduction in trading costs due to technological improvements and an increase in gains from services trade

Does financial instability weaken the finance-growth nexus? A case for Pakistan

The paper investigates whether financial instability weakens finance-growth nexus in case of Pakistan. In doing so ARDL bounds testing approach is used for cointegration among variables over the period of 1971-2005. The results show that financial instability does weaken finance-growth nexus. Trade openness increases economic growth through spillover effects. Increasing inflation retards economic growth i.e., lower inflation rates are necessary for sustained economic growth. Political instability impedes economic growth. The present study indicates new direction for policy makers to sustain the pace of economic growth and avoid financial crisis.Financial Crisis, Financial Development, Economic Growth

Does financial instability weaken the finance-growth nexus? A case for Pakistan

The paper investigates whether financial instability weakens finance-growth nexus in case of Pakistan. In doing so ARDL bounds testing approach is used for cointegration among variables over the period of 1971-2005. The results show that financial instability does weaken finance-growth nexus. Trade openness increases economic growth through spillover effects. Increasing inflation retards economic growth i.e., lower inflation rates are necessary for sustained economic growth. Political instability impedes economic growth. The present study indicates new direction for policy makers to sustain the pace of economic growth and avoid financial crisis.Financial Crisis, Financial Development, Economic Growth

Regional Economic Integration in South Asia: The Way Forward

regional Cooperation, Economic Integration, South Asia

The effects of financial development, economic growth, coal consumption and trade openness on environment performance in South Africa

This paper explores the effects of financial development, economic growth, coal consumption and trade openness on environmental performance using annual data over the period of 1965-2008 for South African economy. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration has used to test the long run relationship among the variables while short run dynamics have been investigated by applying error correction method (ECM). Unit root problem is checked through Saikkonen and Lutkepohl [1] structural break unit root test. Our findings confirmed long run relationship among the variables. Results showed that a rise in economic growth increases energy emissions while financial development lowers it. Coal consumption has significant contribution to deteriorate environment significantly. Trade openness improves environmental quality by lowering the growth of energy pollutants. EKC is also existed.Coal Consumption, Economic Growth, Environment

Saving-investment Behaviour in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation

Saving and investment are two key macro variables with micro foundations which can play a significant role in economic growth, inflation stability and promotion of employment especially if seen in the context of a developing country. For self-reliance and growth objectives, mobilisation of domestic resources and their efficient utilisation are the two major policy oriented focuses today [Khan (1993)]. National savings are critically important to help maintain a higher level of investment which is a key determinant for economic uplift. Thereby, necessitating the analysis of saving-investment behaviour and its determinants for policy implications; this is a demanding area because of continuing debate on the potential role of their determinants

The UK at the crossroads between a ‘dirty recovery’ and ‘build back better’

More important than whether the recovery will be V or W-shaped is whether it will have sustainability at its core, write Muhammad Ali Nasir and Muhammad Shahba