One-Year Outcome Trajectories and Factors Associated with Functional Recovery among Survivors of Intracerebral and Intraventricular Hemorrhage with Initial Severe Disability

Importance: Patients who survive severe intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) typically have poor functional outcome in the short term and understanding of future recovery is limited. Objective: To describe 1-year recovery trajectories among ICH and IVH survivors with initial severe disability and assess the association of hospital events with long-term recovery. Design, Setting, and Participants: This post hoc analysis pooled all individual patient data from the Clot Lysis: Evaluating Accelerated Resolution of Intraventricular Hemorrhage phase 3 trial (CLEAR-III) and the Minimally Invasive Surgery Plus Alteplase for Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation (MISTIE-III) phase 3 trial in multiple centers across the US, Canada, Europe, and Asia. Patients were enrolled from August 1, 2010, to September 30, 2018, with a follow-up duration of 1 year. Of 999 enrolled patients, 724 survived with a day 30 modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) of 4 to 5 after excluding 13 participants with missing day 30 mRS. An additional 9 patients were excluded because of missing 1-year mRS. The final pooled cohort included 715 patients (71.6%) with day 30 mRS 4 to 5. Data were analyzed from July 2019 to January 2022. Exposures: CLEAR-III participants randomized to intraventricular alteplase vs placebo. MISTIE-III participants randomized to stereotactic thrombolysis of hematoma vs standard medical care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was 1-year mRS. Patients were dichotomized into good outcome at 1 year (mRS 0 to 3) vs poor outcome at 1 year (mRS 4 to 6). Multivariable logistic regression models assessed associations between prospectively adjudicated hospital events and 1-year good outcome after adjusting for demographic characteristics, ICH and IVH severity, and trial cohort. Results: Of 715 survivors, 417 (58%) were male, and the overall mean (SD) age was 60.3 (11.7) years. Overall, 174 participants (24.3%) were Black, 491 (68.6%) were White, and 49 (6.9%) were of other races (including Asian, Native American, and Pacific Islander, consolidated owing to small numbers); 98 (13.7%) were of Hispanic ethnicity. By 1 year, 129 participants (18%) had died and 308 (43%) had achieved mRS 0 to 3. In adjusted models for the combined cohort, diabetes (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.50; 95% CI, 0.26-0.96), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (aOR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.90-0.96), severe leukoaraiosis (aOR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.16-0.54), pineal gland shift (aOR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99]), acute ischemic stroke (aOR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.21-0.94), gastrostomy (aOR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.17-0.50), and persistent hydrocephalus by day 30 (aOR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.14-0.98) were associated with lack of recovery. Resolution of ICH (aOR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.08-3.04) and IVH (aOR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.02-4.68) by day 30 were associated with recovery to good outcome. In the CLEAR-III model, cerebral perfusion pressure less than 60 mm Hg (aOR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.13-0.71), sepsis (aOR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.00-0.80), and prolonged mechanical ventilation (aOR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.92-1.00 per day), and in MISTIE-III, need for intracranial pressure monitoring (aOR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.12-0.98), were additional factors associated with poor outcome. Thirty-day event-based models strongly predicted 1-year outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.87; 95% CI, 0.83-0.90), with significantly improved discrimination over models using baseline severity factors alone (AUC, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.80; P <.001). Conclusions and Relevance: Among survivors of severe ICH and IVH with initial poor functional outcome, more than 40% recovered to good outcome by 1 year. Hospital events were strongly associated with long-term functional recovery and may be potential targets for intervention. Avoiding early pessimistic prognostication and delaying prognostication until after treatment may improve ability to predict future recovery.