Essays on Energy and Behavioral Financial Economics

AbstractsChapter 1 - An analysis of Turkey’s solar PV auction scheme: What can Turkey learn from Brazil and South Africa? As global investments continue in renewable energy technologies, investment costs have declined significantly. Meanwhile, many governments have shifted from pre-set renewable support schemes to auction schemes in order to introduce competition in price setting. Turkey has initiated Renewable Energy Resource Zone (RERZ) auctions to promote solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind technologies. We examine the first of these auctions, Solar PV RERZ, which has ambitious targets in terms of increasing solar PV capacity and enhancing domestic competence in solar technologies. Despite the auction being hailed as a success in terms of low prices, we utilize the Levelized Cost of Electricity generation (LCOE) analysis to demonstrate that the project is vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks and financial risks. Model results show that the capacity factor is the most prominent factor in costs, and a 10% change in the capacity factor affects the LCOE about the same rate. Investment cost and interest rate are the other major factors affecting the LCOE. Based on these results, we make recommendations by discussing how Turkey can improve its auction design by incorporating some of the elements used by Brazil and South Africa. Chapter 2 - How do macroeconomic dynamics affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the power sector in developing economies: Evidence from Turkey Developing economies are currently projected to hold a major share of the global energy demand in the upcoming decades, giving them a key role in addressing climate change. However, new renewable energy investments in these countries have so far been relatively slow. A specific set of challenges dominate the investment environment in developing countries, including higher exposure to macroeconomic and political risks, uncertainties due to climate change, limited domestic manufacturing capabilities, and heavy reliance on foreign debt in capital investments. These factors tend to disproportionately affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) which currently hold a sizeable share of renewable and distributed energy technology investments. Not only does this impact the viability of energy transition, but also has important energy justice and local economic development implications – an overlooked subject in literature. Using a rich, novel dataset and panel data methods, this paper estimates the effect of a set of key macroeconomic variables on the capital structure and investment outcomes of SMEs within the Turkish power sector. Our results indicate that unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, which lead to a significant growth in liabilities and increased risk of bankruptcy, can cause a slowdown in power sector SME investments despite the prevalence of subsidies. Chapter 3 - Should Children Listen to their Parents’ Investment Advice? This study investigates the impact of intergenerational advice on investment behavior in an experimental setting. We explore the effects of positive and negative advice from one generation to the next on asset allocation decisions. Results indicate that the transmission of advice can significantly influence investment behavior, as participants who received positive advice allocated a higher proportion of their portfolio to risky assets. The transmission of advice to allocations appears to be through participants forming more optimistic beliefs about future returns rather than any change in their risk preferences. Even when challenged by a significant downturn, the group that received positive advice continued to hold optimistic beliefs. The study also challenges the assumptions of modern portfolio theory and suggests that inexperienced investors may be more influenced by the advice of previous generations

A Comparative Abnormal Return Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions in the Emerging Markets

Financial crisis originated in developed countries in 2008 and has affected M&A activities worldwide. This impact may have irreversible results in emerging market economies. This study aims to examine the spillover effects of 2008 economic crisis, started in developed countries, in emerging markets. In this manner, we have analyzed M&A activities from the acquirer firms’ side in BRICS-T countries (namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey) for banking industries in pre-and postcrisis periods so that effects of economic crisis can be captured. Significant transactions over $100 million are included in the analysis. Event study methodology, which uses daily market index returns, daily stock returns, and M&A announcement dates to calculate abnormal returns, is employed for the analysis. The cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are calculated for September 2003–November 2008 (precrisis period) and November 2008–December 2013 (postcrisis) periods. In conclusion there are negative mean CARs in Brazil, India, and Russia, while there are positive mean CARs in China, South Africa, and Turkey in precrisis period. In addition, there are negative mean CARs in South Africa, Brazil, and China, while there are positive mean CARs in Russia, Turkey, and India in postcrisis period