Progressive interstitial lung disease in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease in the EUSTAR database

Objectives To identify overall disease course, progression patterns and risk factors predictive for progressive interstitial lung disease (ILD) in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated ILD (SSc-ILD), using data from the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) database over long-term follow-up. Methods Eligible patients with SSc-ILD were registered in the EUSTAR database and had measurements of forced vital capacity (FVC) at baseline and after 12±3 months. Long-term progressive ILD and progression patterns were assessed in patients with multiple FVC measurements. Potential predictors of ILD progression were analysed using multivariable mixed-effect models. Results 826 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Over 12±3 months, 219 (27%) showed progressive ILD: either moderate (FVC decline 5% to 10%) or significant (FVC decline >10%). A total of 535 (65%) patients had multiple FVC measurements available over mean 5-year follow-up. In each 12-month period, 23% to 27% of SSc-ILD patients showed progressive ILD, but only a minority of patients showed progression in consecutive periods. Most patients with progressive ILD (58%) had a pattern of slow lung function decline, with more periods of stability/improvement than decline, whereas only 8% showed rapid, continuously declining FVC; 178 (33%) experienced no episode of FVC decline. The strongest predictive factors for FVC decline over 5 years were male sex, higher modified Rodnan skin score and reflux/dysphagia symptoms. Conclusion SSc-ILD shows a heterogeneous and variable disease course, and thus monitoring all patients closely is important. Novel treatment concepts, with treatment initiation before FVC decline occurs, should aim for prevention of progression to avoid irreversible organ damage

Effectiveness and safety of tocilizumab in patients with systemic sclerosis: a propensity score matched controlled observational study of the EUSTAR cohort

Objectives Tocilizumab showed trends for improving skin fibrosis and prevented progression of lung fibrosis in systemic sclerosis (SSc) in randomised controlled clinical trials. We aimed to assess safety and effectiveness of tocilizumab in a real-life setting using the European Scleroderma Trial and Research (EUSTAR) database. Methods Patients with SSc fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/EULAR 2013 classification criteria, with baseline and follow-up visits at 12±3 months, receiving tocilizumab or standard of care as the control group, were selected. Propensity score matching was applied. Primary endpoints were the modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) and FVC at 12±3 months compared between the groups. Secondary endpoints were the percentage of progressive/regressive patients for skin and lung at 12±3 months. Results Ninety-three patients with SSc treated with tocilizumab and 3180 patients with SSc with standard of care fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Comparison between groups did not show significant differences, but favoured tocilizumab across all predefined primary and secondary endpoints: mRSS was lower in the tocilizumab group (difference −1.0, 95% CI −3.7 to 1.8, p=0.48). Similarly, FVC % predicted was higher in the tocilizumab group (difference 1.5 (−6.1 to 9.1), p=0.70). The percentage of progressive/regressive patients favoured tocilizumab over controls. These results were robust regarding the sensitivity analyses. Safety analysis confirmed previously reported adverse event profiles. Conclusion Although this large, observational, controlled, real-life EUSTAR study did not show significant effectiveness of tocilizumab on skin and lung fibrosis, the consistency of direction of all predefined endpoints generates hypothesis for potential effectiveness in a broader SSc population

Sex influence on outcomes of patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease: A EUSTAR database analysis

Objective: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients. We aimed to investigate the impact of sex on SSc-ILD. Methods: EUSTAR SSc patients with radiologically confirmed ILD and available percentage predicted forced vital capacity (%pFVC) were included. Demographics and disease features were recorded. A change in %pFVC over 12 months (s.d. 6) (cohort 1) was classified into stable (≤4%), mild (5-9%) and large progression (≥10%). In those with 2-year longitudinal %pFVC (cohort 2), the %pFVC change at each 12-month (s.d. 6) interval was calculated. Logistic regression analyses [odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI] and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and %pFVC were applied. Results: A total of 1136 male and 5253 female SSc-ILD patients were identified. Males were significantly younger, had a shorter disease duration, had a higher prevalence of CRP elevation and frequently had diffuse cutaneous involvement. In cohort 1 (1655 females and 390 males), a higher percentage of males had stable ILD (74.4% vs 69.4%, P = 0.056). In multivariable analysis, disease duration and %pFVC [OR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98, 0.99) and OR 0.97 (95% CI 0.95, 0.99), respectively] in males and age, %pFVC and anti-centromere [OR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00, 1.04), OR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96, 0.98) and OR 0.39 (95% CI 0.245, 0.63), respectively] in females were associated with large progression. The 1-year mortality rate was higher in males (5.1% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). In cohort 2 (849 females and 209 males), a higher percentage of females showed periods of large progression (11.7% vs 7.7%, P = 0.023), the percentage of patients with none, one or two periods of worsening was not different. The overall death rate was 30.9% for males and 20.4% in females (P < 0.001). In the survival analysis, male sex was a predictor of mortality [OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.66, 2.28)]. Conclusions: Male SSc-ILD patients have a poorer prognosis and sex-specific predictors exist in SSc-ILD

Sex influence on outcomes of patients with systemic sclerosis–associated interstitial lung disease: a EUSTAR database analysis

Objective Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients. We aimed to investigate the impact of sex on SSc-ILD. Methods EUSTAR SSc patients with radiologically confirmed ILD and available percentage predicted forced vital capacity (%pFVC) were included. Demographics and disease features were recorded. A change in %pFVC over 12 months (S.D. 6) (cohort 1) was classified into stable (≤4%), mild (5–9%) and large progression (≥10%). In those with 2-year longitudinal %pFVC (cohort 2), the %pFVC change at each 12-month (S.D. 6) interval was calculated. Logistic regression analyses [odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI] and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and %pFVC were applied. Results A total of 1136 male and 5253 female SSc-ILD patients were identified. Males were significantly younger, had a shorter disease duration, had a higher prevalence of CRP elevation and frequently had diffuse cutaneous involvement. In cohort 1 (1655 females and 390 males), a higher percentage of males had stable ILD (74.4% vs 69.4%, P = 0.056). In multivariable analysis, disease duration and %pFVC [OR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98, 0.99) and OR 0.97 (95% CI 0.95, 0.99), respectively] in males and age, %pFVC and anti-centromere [OR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00, 1.04), OR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96, 0.98) and OR 0.39 (95% CI 0.245, 0.63), respectively] in females were associated with large progression. The 1-year mortality rate was higher in males (5.1% vs 2.5%, P = 0.013). In cohort 2 (849 females and 209 males), a higher percentage of females showed periods of large progression (11.7% vs 7.7%, P = 0.023), the percentage of patients with none, one or two periods of worsening was not different. The overall death rate was 30.9% for males and 20.4% in females (P < 0.001). In the survival analysis, male sex was a predictor of mortality [OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.66, 2.28)]. Conclusions Male SSc-ILD patients have a poorer prognosis and sex-specific predictors exist in SSc-ILD

Cohort Enrichment Strategies for Progressive Interstitial Lung Disease in Systemic Sclerosis From European Scleroderma Trials and Research

Background: Enrichment strategies from clinical trials for progressive systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) have not been tested in a real-life cohort. Research Question: Do enrichment strategies for progressive ILD impact efficacy, representativeness, and feasibility in patients with SSc-ILD from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database? Study Design and Methods: We applied the inclusion criteria of major recent SSc-ILD trials (Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Tocilizumab in Participants With Systemic Sclerosis [focuSSced], Scleroderma Lung Study II [SLS II], and Safety and Efficacy of Nintedanib in Systemic Sclerosis [SENSCIS]) and assessed progressive ILD, which was defined as absolute change in FVC and as significant progression (FVC decline ≥10%). Data were compared with all patients and with patients who did not fulfill any inclusion criteria. Results: In total, 2,258 patients with SSc-ILD were included: 31.2% of the patients met SENSCIS criteria; 5.8% of the patients met SLS II criteria; 1.6% of the patients met focuSSced criteria, and 67.7% (1,529) of the patients did not meet any criteria. In the first 12 ± 3 months, the absolute FVC decline in all patients and in patients who fulfilled criteria from SENSCIS was –0.1%, in patients who fulfilled criteria from focuSSced was –3.7%, and in patients who fulfilled criteria from SLS II was 2.3%, with accompanying more progressors in focuSSced. The patient populations that fulfilled the different study inclusion criteria significantly differed in various clinical parameters. In the second 12-month period, SENSCIS-enriched patients had a further absolute FVC% decline as described for the total cohort. In contrast, patients who fulfilled the focuSSced and SLS II criteria showed numeric improvement of lung function. There were no significant associations of enrichment criteria and ILD progression. Interpretation: The application of enrichment criteria from previous clinical trials showed enrichment for progression with variable success, which led to selected patient populations reducing feasibility of recruitment. These findings are important for future clinical trial design and interpretation of the results of published trials

Stratification in systemic sclerosis according to autoantibody status versus skin involvement: a study of the prospective EUSTAR cohort

Background The current subclassification of systemic sclerosis into cutaneous subtypes does not fully capture the heterogeneity of the disease. We aimed to compare the performances of stratification into LeRoy's cutaneous subtypes versus stratification by autoantibody status in systemic sclerosis. Methods For this cohort study, we assessed people with systemic sclerosis in the multicentre international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Individuals positive for systemic-sclerosis autoantibodies of two specificities were excluded, and remaining individuals were classified by cutaneous subtype, according to their systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies, or both. We assessed the performance of each model to predict overall survival, progression-free survival, disease progression, and different organ involvement. The three models were compared by use of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and the net reclassification improvement (NRI). Missing data were imputed. Findings We assessed the database on July 26, 2019. Of 16 939 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 711 patients were included: 1647 (15·4%) of 10 709 were male, 9062 (84·6%) were female, mean age was 54·4 (SD 13·8) years, and mean disease duration was 7·9 (SD 8·2) years. Information regarding cutaneous subtype was available for 10 176 participants and antibody data were available for 9643 participants. In the prognostic analysis, there was no difference in AUC for overall survival (0·82, 95% CI 0·81–0·84 for cutaneous only vs 0·84, 0·82–0·85 for antibody only vs 0·84, 0·83–0·86 for combined) or for progression-free survival (0·70, 0·69–0·71 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72). However, at 4 years the NRI showed substantial improvement for the antibody-only model compared with the cutaneous-only model in prediction of overall survival (0·57, 0·46–0·71 for antibody only vs 0·29, 0·19–0·39 for cutaneous only) and disease progression (0·36, 0·29–0·46 vs 0·21, 0·14–0·28). The antibody-only model did better than the cutaneous-only model in predicting renal crisis (AUC 0·72, 0·70–0·74 for antibody only vs 0·66, 0·64–0·69 for cutaneous only) and lung fibrosis leading to restrictive lung function (AUC 0·76, 0·75–0·77 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72). The combined model improved the prediction of digital ulcers and elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure, but did poorly for cardiac involvement. Interpretation The autoantibody-only model outperforms cutaneous-only subsetting for risk stratifying people with systemic sclerosis in the EUSTAR cohort. Physicians should be aware of these findings at the time of decision making for patient management. Funding World Scleroderma Foundation

Stratification in systemic sclerosis according to autoantibody status versus skin involvement: a study of the prospective EUSTAR cohort

Background: The current subclassification of systemic sclerosis into cutaneous subtypes does not fully capture the heterogeneity of the disease. We aimed to compare the performances of stratification into LeRoy's cutaneous subtypes versus stratification by autoantibody status in systemic sclerosis. Methods: For this cohort study, we assessed people with systemic sclerosis in the multicentre international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Individuals positive for systemic-sclerosis autoantibodies of two specificities were excluded, and remaining individuals were classified by cutaneous subtype, according to their systemic sclerosis-specific autoantibodies, or both. We assessed the performance of each model to predict overall survival, progression-free survival, disease progression, and different organ involvement. The three models were compared by use of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and the net reclassification improvement (NRI). Missing data were imputed. Findings: We assessed the database on July 26, 2019. Of 16 939 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 711 patients were included: 1647 (15·4%) of 10 709 were male, 9062 (84·6%) were female, mean age was 54·4 (SD 13·8) years, and mean disease duration was 7·9 (SD 8·2) years. Information regarding cutaneous subtype was available for 10 176 participants and antibody data were available for 9643 participants. In the prognostic analysis, there was no difference in AUC for overall survival (0·82, 95% CI 0·81–0·84 for cutaneous only vs 0·84, 0·82–0·85 for antibody only vs 0·84, 0·83–0·86 for combined) or for progression-free survival (0·70, 0·69–0·71 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72). However, at 4 years the NRI showed substantial improvement for the antibody-only model compared with the cutaneous-only model in prediction of overall survival (0·57, 0·46–0·71 for antibody only vs 0·29, 0·19–0·39 for cutaneous only) and disease progression (0·36, 0·29–0·46 vs 0·21, 0·14–0·28). The antibody-only model did better than the cutaneous-only model in predicting renal crisis (AUC 0·72, 0·70–0·74 for antibody only vs 0·66, 0·64–0·69 for cutaneous only) and lung fibrosis leading to restrictive lung function (AUC 0·76, 0·75–0·77 vs 0·71, 0·70–0·72). The combined model improved the prediction of digital ulcers and elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure, but did poorly for cardiac involvement. Interpretation: The autoantibody-only model outperforms cutaneous-only subsetting for risk stratifying people with systemic sclerosis in the EUSTAR cohort. Physicians should be aware of these findings at the time of decision making for patient management. Funding: World Scleroderma Foundation

Progressive interstitial lung disease in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease in the EUSTAR database

Objectives To identify overall disease course, progression patterns and risk factors predictive for progressive interstitial lung disease (ILD) in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated ILD (SSc-ILD), using data from the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) database over long-term follow-up. Methods Eligible patients with SSc-ILD were registered in the EUSTAR database and had measurements of forced vital capacity (FVC) at baseline and after 12±3 months. Long-term progressive ILD and progression patterns were assessed in patients with multiple FVC measurements. Potential predictors of ILD progression were analysed using multivariable mixed-effect models. Results 826 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Over 12±3 months, 219 (27%) showed progressive ILD: either moderate (FVC decline 5% to 10%) or significant (FVC decline >10%). A total of 535 (65%) patients had multiple FVC measurements available over mean 5-year follow-up. In each 12-month period, 23% to 27% of SSc-ILD patients showed progressive ILD, but only a minority of patients showed progression in consecutive periods. Most patients with progressive ILD (58%) had a pattern of slow lung function decline, with more periods of stability/improvement than decline, whereas only 8% showed rapid, continuously declining FVC; 178 (33%) experienced no episode of FVC decline. The strongest predictive factors for FVC decline over 5 years were male sex, higher modified Rodnan skin score and reflux/dysphagia symptoms. Conclusion SSc-ILD shows a heterogeneous and variable disease course, and thus monitoring all patients closely is important. Novel treatment concepts, with treatment initiation before FVC decline occurs, should aim for prevention of progression to avoid irreversible organ damage

Racial differences in systemic sclerosis disease presentation: A European Scleroderma Trials and Research group study

Racial factors play a significant role in SSc. We evaluated differences in SSc presentations between white patients (WP), Asian patients (AP) and black patients (BP) and analysed the effects of geographical locations. Methods: SSc characteristics of patients from the EUSTAR cohort were cross-sectionally compared across racial groups using survival and multiple logistic regression analyses. Results: The study included 9162 WP, 341 AP and 181 BP. AP developed the first non-RP feature faster than WP but slower than BP. AP were less frequently anti-centromere (ACA; odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, P &lt; 0.001) and more frequently anti-topoisomerase-I autoantibodies (ATA) positive (OR = 1.2, P = 0.068), while BP were less likely to be ACA and ATA positive than were WP [OR(ACA) = 0.3, P &lt; 0.001; OR(ATA) = 0.5, P = 0.020]. AP had less often (OR = 0.7, P = 0.06) and BP more often (OR = 2.7, P &lt; 0.001) diffuse skin involvement than had WP. AP and BP were more likely to have pulmonary hypertension [OR(AP) = 2.6, P &lt; 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.7, P = 0.03 vs WP] and a reduced forced vital capacity [OR(AP) = 2.5, P &lt; 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.4, P &lt; 0.004] than were WP. AP more often had an impaired diffusing capacity of the lung than had BP and WP [OR(AP vs BP) = 1.9, P = 0.038; OR(AP vs WP) = 2.4, P &lt; 0.001]. After RP onset, AP and BP had a higher hazard to die than had WP [hazard ratio (HR) (AP) = 1.6, P = 0.011; HR(BP) = 2.1, P &lt; 0.001]. Conclusion: Compared with WP, and mostly independent of geographical location, AP have a faster and earlier disease onset with high prevalences of ATA, pulmonary hypertension and forced vital capacity impairment and higher mortality. BP had the fastest disease onset, a high prevalence of diffuse skin involvement and nominally the highest mortality