Rational dimension of a basis of a regression model for adaptive short-term forecasting the state of a discrete nonstationary dynamic system

Relevance. Today, there are many methodologies for predicting power consumption of various objects. However, there is no a general methodology that is suitable for all types of energy systems, including the sectoral characteristics of small northern settlements and other objects with the stochastic nature of electricity consumption schedules. At the same time, during the development of problem-oriented forecasting methods, it is necessary to take into account computational and statistical features of forecasted time series to the maximum and apply them adequately. The mentioned circumstance prompts the creation of criteria-indicators that allow evaluating the quality of the applied model for solving the forecasting problem, correctness of its construction and correctness of applying a priori information about the object and its physical properties.Aim. Develop and apply the criteria-indicators, which allow evaluating the quality of the forecast regression model and the influence of the dimensionality of such model base on a forecasting error. Methods. The choice of rational dimensionality of the regression model basis for the adaptive forecasting problem is based on the known and developed criteria-indicators. The main provisions of such criteria-indicators were formulated, which provide an assessment of the quality of conditioning of an equivalent square matrix, the presence of uninformative elements of the matrix, and linear dependence of the columns. Results. Based on the analysis of criteria-indicators, the authors selected a rational dimension of the regression model basis for the problem of adaptive short-term forecasting of the state of discrete non-stationary dynamic systems. Conclusions. The authors have previously selected the most promising criteria-indicators and developed a normalized difference factor of diagonal predominance. This allows us to evaluate the influence of the basis size change on the regression model quality when building an approach of adaptive short-term forecasting of electricity consumption by autonomous power systems of small northern settlements on the basis of regression analysis methods. Based on the analysis of criteria-indicators the authors obtained information about the influence of the regression model basis dimension on the forecasting problem solution error. The authors stated the further stages of research to reduce this error. The paper introduces and describes one of the ways to improve the forecasting model quality. The dependence of the forecasting error on the size of the regression model basis were revealed; the criteria-indicators considered in the article were successfully applied. It is confirmed that the pre-selected and developed criteria-indicators make it possible, at the stage of compiling an equivalent square matrix and performing preliminary actions on it, to track changes within the matrix. The changes will lead to improvement in the solution of the problem of adaptive short-term forecasting

REVIEW AND CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE AND WAYS TO IMPROVE REGULATED POWER SUPPLIES AND AUTOMATIC CONTROL SYSTEMS FOR ELECTRIC CENTRIFUGAL PUMPING UNITS IN INTERMITTENT OPERATION OF OIL WELLS

Link for citation: Kladiev S.N. Review and critical analysis of the current state and ways to improve regulated power supplies and automatic control systems for electric centrifugal pumping units in intermittent operation of oil wells. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Аssets Engineering, 2023, vol. 334, no. 9, рр. 203-215. In Rus. Relevance. At present efforts are being made to convert low- and medium-flow oil wells to cyclical or short-term operation in order to reduce the excess pumping capacity that resulted from the reduction of well flow that is caused by reduced reservoir pressure during long-lasting exploitation of the deposit. The need for such a conversion requires justification for the use of more complex configurations of regulated power supply sources and automatic control systems of centrifugal pump units electric drives in automated process control systems. The local low-level automatic control systems for a mechanized electric drive method for lifting an oil-containing liquid from the well to the surface, namely the installation of variable-speed AC electric drives consist of ground-based devices and special submersible equipment. The ground-based devices are control stations with AC voltage and frequency converters with built-in telemetry units, external sine filter, step-up transformer. The special submersible equipment includes asynchronous induction electric motor, power cable, submersible telemetry unit, process sensors, centrifugal pump. The power supply of such a unit is provided from the external electric three-phase network of 6 kV through a reducing transformer substation of 6/0,4 kV. In the continuous mode of operation of oil pumping plants the electric pumps and other equipment, operate in quasi-static modes. Unregulated electric drive, as well as the open-loop controlled electric drive does not allow for smooth acceleration to the nominal performance of pumping equipment for pumping oil out of well in difficult conditions and its smooth regulation when reducing the well flow because of reducing oil flow to the slaughter. Therefore, the main way of smoothly reducing the excess performance of the submersible centrifugal pump is the periodic activation mode, which includes pumping the oil mixture out of the well and stop – for its accumulation and recovery of formation pressure. The introduction of cyclical technology shows that it is impossible to use the open-loop system of regulated electric drive everywhere, where acceptable quality indicators of transition comparable with the quality of closed-loop control systems are objectively unattainable. Due to the fact that the amount of pressure at the well intake created by a centrifugal pump, necessary to lift the well fluid to the surface, depends on the square of the rotation speed of the pump working stages, the operating pump productivity range Qmin... Qmax (m3/day) is obtained by varying the motor stator winding voltage (80…100) % from the nominal voltage value by using AC voltage controller with a phase control mode. If the stator voltage value is less than 80 % of Unom then the well fluid is not lifted to the surface and does not flow out of wellhead equipment. Therefore, when a frequency converter with Unom/fnom=const is used, the supply voltage and frequency of the motor should be varied in the same range. The price for using cyclic operation is a decrease in the reliability of submersible pumps. It is necessary to use special designs of submersible electric motors, improve power supply systems and synthesize closed-loop control systems of automatic control of electric drive of submersible pump. The purpose of the study is the review and critical analysis of the current state and ways to improve regulated power supplies and automatic control systems for electric centrifugal pumping units in intermittent operation of oil wells. Object:  systems of power supply and automatic control of centrifugal pump units in intermittent operation of oil well, telemetry systems, energy-efficient submersible motors and centrifugal pump designs. Methods: methods of the theory of the automatic control system for developing the concept of operation of low flow of wells, analysis and synthesis of open and closed loop control systems of electric submersible centrifugal pumping units. Results. The paper introduces the scientific problem of development, implementation, models and methods of identification of technological processes, complexes and integrated control systems of oil extraction by electric drive method, taking into account the influence of a long submerged cable, low flow of wells and difficult operating conditions. The author proposed scientifically based technical solutions in the form of a structure of a power channel of an electromechanical system with a frequency-regulated induction motor, long submersible cable and indirect method of measuring state variable from ground-based measurements at load changes and measurement channel characteristics

Vector Control System Design for Four Degree-of-Freedom Dynamic Flexible Simulation of the Variable-Frequency Drive

In the present work we investigate the control system development of the drive simulators to train driver/operator driving skills, taking into account the ever-changing terrain. In order to meet the required response of the four degree-of-freedom motion platform servomotor current studies have been focused on the vector control of the resistance motor angular velocity from the sensor being incremental encoder. In proposed system the standard security of the frequency converter is realized. It leads to overload capacity of two times within minutes determined by servomotor inertia. Further, we represent the algorithms: positional limitation, reliable acceleration and restraint, frequency break. As well as we demonstrate the position switches implement in software. As a result, the control system commands the control of the angular position of the platform in coordinates

Vector Control System Design for Four Degree-of-Freedom Dynamic Flexible Simulation of the Variable-Frequency Drive

In the present work we investigate the control system development of the drive simulators to train driver/operator driving skills, taking into account the ever-changing terrain. In order to meet the required response of the four degree-of-freedom motion platform servomotor current studies have been focused on the vector control of the resistance motor angular velocity from the sensor being incremental encoder. In proposed system the standard security of the frequency converter is realized. It leads to overload capacity of two times within minutes determined by servomotor inertia. Further, we represent the algorithms: positional limitation, reliable acceleration and restraint, frequency break. As well as we demonstrate the position switches implement in software. As a result, the control system commands the control of the angular position of the platform in coordinates

TRANSIENT PROCESSES IN ELECTRICAL COMPLEX OF PRODUCTION WELL WITH DOWNHOLE COMPENSATOR OF REACTIVE POWER

Link for citation: Glazyrin A.S., Isaev Yu.N., Kopyrin V.A., Timoshkin V.V., Kladiev S.N., Khamitov R.N., Kovalev V.Z., Losev A.F., Leonov A.P., Popov  E.I. Transient processes in electrical complex of production well with downhole compensator of reactive power. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Аssets Engineering, 2023, vol. 334, no. 5, рр.168-180. In Rus. The relevance. At the present time at routine complication of technological processes to increase efficiency of production processes due to introduction of new equipment conflicts between functional capabilities of various technical means and their ability to function with specified quality, in specified electromagnetic environment and do not create inadmissible electromagnetic interference to other technical means. The electrical engineering complex for oil production includes a combination of ground and submersible electrical equipment assembled for receiving, transforming electrical energy, controlling its flow, converting electrical energy into mechanical energy and transmitting it to a submersible pump, including various electrical and electronic devices: a control station with a frequency converter, a step-up transformer, a cable line, a submersible electric motor, a downhole reactive power compensator and other devices. Any change in the layout of electrical systems for extracting oil or technical characteristics of the equipment used requires careful analysis of transient processes between the operating modes of electrical equipment in order to prevent the risks of false triggering of electrical equipment protection devices. The purpose: analysis of transient processes in the electrical system of the production well with the downhole reactive power compensator when the power supply is disconnected in order to prevent the risks of false operation of the compensator protection devices. The object: section of a power supply system for a cluster of oil producing wells equipped with electric centrifugal pump installations with downhole reactive power compensators. Methods: positions of theoretical bases of electrical engineering, theory of electric drive, theory of differential equations, numerical methods. Results. The authors developed the mathematical model of the electrical system of the submersible unit for oil production with a downhole reactive power compensator, which enables to investigate transient processes in start-up and shutdown mode of the submersible induction motor. Characteristics of transient processes are obtained in elements of electrical complex of submersible plant for oil production when power supply is switched on and disconnected. It is established that the maximum current surge in the downhole reactive power compensator is 2,56 times with the parameters of the electrical system of the production well accepted in the study. The inventive measures for reducing the number of false actuations of the protection devices are also disclosed

Analytical model of dynamic system "long cable - submersible induction motor with fixed rotor" in polar coordinate system

Relevance. The stock of oil wells in the Russian Federation, where production is carried out with the help of electric centrifugal pumps or electric-driven vane pumps, is expanding every year. This trend will continue for at least a couple of decades. In its turn, the number of wells with readily available oil products in the commissioned stock is decreasing. This leads to the need to improve production quality and reduce energy consumption to maintain profitability and production volumes. This can be achieved by implementing vector energy-efficient control systems for submersible motors based on observers of induction motor state variables. In this case one should take into account transients in the supply cable of considerable length, which transmits energy from a frequency converter to a motor. The observers are based on adjustable mathematical models that describe electrical, electromechanical and mechanical processes in electric drive and related process automation systems as reliably as possible. Using complex and cumbersome adjustable mathematical models in digital signal processors due to limited performance and memory causes objective difficulties in obtaining solutions of increased accuracy in real time. On this basis, the development of an analytical model of the dynamic system "long cable – submersible induction motor with fixed rotor" in the polar coordinate system is an urgent task. Aim. Development of analytical description of the mathematical model of the induction motor with a fixed rotor in the polar coordinate system taking into account the influence of a long cable. Methods. Electric drive theory, electric machine theory, mathematical models of submersible induction motors and reduced long cable model, Vandermonde's determinant, analytical methods for solving differential equations. Result and conclusions. The authors have developed an analytical model of the regulated induction motor with a fixed rotor in the polar coordinate system taking into account the supply cable of considerable length. The developed analytical model is recommended for use in vector energy-efficient electric drive with application of phase discrimination principles taking into account the influence of processes in the supply cable line. Such electric drive has a potential for increasing the profitability of oil production from low- and medium-debt wells

Nonlinear algebraic estimation of a vibration electromagnetic activator inductivity by a failing current curve

Актуальность. В технологиях, связанных с подготовкой буровых растворов и разжижением высоковязких нефтепродуктов, перспективно применение вибрационных электромагнитных активаторов. Вибрационные электромагнитные активаторы, работающие на околорезонансных частотах в предельных безударных режимах с настройкой на максимальную энергоэффективность, требуют определения индуктивности катушек при фиксированных значениях магнитного зазора. Одним из наиболее перспективных способов определения индуктивности является предварительная идентификация параметров настраиваемой модели по кривым затухания тока. Цель: разработать способ идентификации индуктивности катушки вибрационного электромагнитного активатора при фиксированной величие магнитного зазора на основе регрессионного анализа свободной составляющей тока. Методы: обыкновенные дифференциальные уравнения, прямое преобразование Лапласа при ненулевых начальных условиях, передаточные функции, импульсные переходные характеристики, регрессионный анализ, методы решения дифференциальных уравнений, метод Ньютона, теория оптимизации, минимизация на основе суммы квадратов невязок целевой функции. Результаты. Показан способ предварительной идентификации индуктивности катушек вибрационного электромагнитного активатора на основе регрессионного анализа кривой затухания тока. Выведено выражение для целевой функции и составлено нелинейное алгебраическое уравнение относительно ее производной по оцениваемому параметру. При существенном отклонении априорных значений оцениваемой величины от истинного как в большую, так и в меньшую сторону продемонстрирована работоспособность, быстрота сходимости и динамика изменения погрешности разработанного способа. При использовании 10-разрядного аналогово-цифрового преобразователя для вхождения в зону нечувствительности алгоритму предварительной идентификации индуктивности потребуется не более 11 циклов расчета, а при использовании 12 разрядного аналогово-цифрового преобразователя – не более 13 циклов расчета.The relevance. In technologies related to preparation of drilling fluids and thinning down of highly viscous oil products, it is promisingly to use the vibration electromagnetic activators. Vibration electromagnetic activators, operating at near-resonant frequencies in limit shockfree modes with the maximum energy efficiency, requires the determination of the coil inductance at fixed values of the magnetic gap. One of the most promising methods for determining inductance is the preliminary identification of the parameters of adaptive model by falling current curve. The main aim of the research is to develop a method of identification the inductance of a vibration electromagnetic activator coil with a fixed value of the magnetic gap based on regression analysis of the free component of the current. Methods: ordinary differential equations, Laplace transform with zero initial conditions, transfer function impulse response, regression analysis, the methods of differential equations solving, Newton method, theory of optimization, minimization based on sum squares of residuals objective function. Results. The paper introduces the method for preliminary identification of the inductance of vibration electromagnetic activator coils based on a regression analysis of falling current curve. The authors have concocted out the formula for objective function and composed a nonlinear algebraic equation relative to its derivative with respect to the estimated argument. The paper demonstrates the operational integrity, speed of convergence and dynamics of changing the error in the developed method with a significant deviation of the a priori values of the estimated value from the true one, both up and down. When using a 10-bit analog-to-digital converter, the algorithm for рreliminary identification of inductance will require no more than 11 calculation cycles to enter the dead zone, and when using a 12-bit analog-to-digital converter, no more than 13 calculation cycles