Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia

Empirical evidence suggests that excess bond returns are forecastable by financial indicators such as forward spreads and yield spreads, a violation of the expectations hypothesis based on constant risk premia. But existing evidence does not tie the forecastable variation in excess bond returns to underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, as would be expected if the forecastability were attributable to time variation in risk premia. We use the methodology of dynamic factor analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond returns and macroeconomic fundamentals. We find that several common factors estimated from a large dataset on U.S. economic activity have important forecasting power for future excess returns on U.S. government bonds. Following Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005), we also construct single predictor state variables by forming linear combinations of either five or six estimated common factors. The single state variables forecast excess bond returns at maturities from two to five years, and do so virtually as well as an unrestricted regression model that includes each common factor as a separate predictor variable. The linear combinations we form are driven by both "real" and "inflation" macro factors, in addition to financial factors, and contain important information about one year ahead excess bond returns that is not captured by forward spreads, yield spreads, or the principal components of the yield covariance matrix.

Complete information pivotal-voter model with asymmetric group size

We study the equilibria of the standard pivotal-voter participation game between two groups of voters of asymmetric sizes (majority and minority), as originally proposed by Palfrey and Rosenthal (Public Choice 41(1):7–53, 1983). We find a unique equilibrium wherein the minority votes with certainty and the majority votes with probability in (0,1); we prove that this is the only equilibrium in which voters of only one group play a pure strategy, and we provide sufficient conditions for its existence. Equilibria where voters of both groups vote with probability in (0, 1) are analyzed numerically

Complete information pivotal-voter model with asymmetric group size and asymmetric benefits

We analyse a standard pivotal-voter model under majority rule, with two rival groups of players, each preferring one of two public policies and simultaneously deciding whether to cast a costly vote, as in Palfrey and Rosenthal (1983). We allow the benefit of the favorite public policy to differ across groups and impose an intuitive refinement, namely that voting probabilities are continuous in the cost of voting to pin down a unique equilibrium. The unique continuous equilibrium depends on a key threshold that compares the sizes of the two groups

Medical Implications of Space Radiation Exposure Due to Low Altitude Polar Orbits

Space radiation research has progressed rapidly in recent years, but there remain large uncertainties in predicting and extrapolating biological responses to humans. Exposure to cosmic radiation and Solar Particle Events may pose a critical health risk to future spaceflight crews and can have a serious impact to all biomedical aspects of space exploration. The relatively minimal shielding of the cancelled 1960's Manned Orbiting Laboratory program's space vehicle and the high inclination polar orbits would have left the crew susceptible to high exposures of cosmic radiation and high dose-rate SPEs that are mostly unpredictable in frequency and intensity. In this study, we have modeled the nominal and off-nominal radiation environment that a MOL-like spacecraft vehicle would be exposed to during a 30-day mission using high performance, multi-core computers. Projected doses from a historically large SPE (e.g. the August 1972 solar event) have been analyzed in the context of the MOL orbit profile, providing an opportunity to study its impact to crew health and subsequent contingencies.It is reasonable to presume that future commercial, government, and military spaceflight missions in low-Earth orbit will have vehicles with similar shielding and orbital profiles. Studying the impact of cosmic radiation to the mission's operational integrity and the health of MOL crewmembers provides an excellent surrogate and case-study for future commercial and military spaceflight missions.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

BAS/IPS Student Advisory Committee Internship Course

Throughout my time as a Multidisciplinary Studies student at Boise State University, I was encouraged to participate in multiple student leadership opportunities, all of which elevated my academic pursuits and positively impacted my educational experience. Through the relationships I’d established with faculty, I was invited to take the lead on a new student initiative for my final capstone project in the Interdisciplinary Professional Studies program. I was responsible for developing a new Student Advisory Committee for the Bachelor of Applied Sciences (BAS) and Interdisciplinary Professional Studies (IPS) programs. The committee will serve as a focus group tasked with providing valuable feedback and thoughtful discussion around program initiatives based on the student experience to enhance and explore current and existing program offerings in an effort to remain relevant, innovative, and dynamic in our course of study. While developing the committee’s proposal and bylaws, I recognized the importance of equipping the students for the roles and responsibilities they would assume while serving on the advisory committee. This motivated the second phase of development which involved designing a supplemental internship course to provide students with the knowledge and strategies necessary for them to be successful. In collaboration with Alexis Kenyon, Associate Director, I applied integrative thinking and creative problem-solving skills to develop an internship course specifically for the students who will serve on the BAS/IPS Student Advisory Committee. This course will allow students to purposefully engage in their own student leadership opportunities. This overviews the developmental process for the new supplemental BAS/IPS Student Advisory Committee Internship Course and highlights key aspects of the course design

Real space investigation of structural changes at the metal-insulator transition in VO2

Synchrotron X-ray total scattering studies of structural changes in rutile VO2 at the metal-insulator transition temperature of 340 K reveal that monoclinic and tetragonal phases of VO2 coexist in equilibrium, as expected for a first-order phase transition. No evidence for any distinct intermediate phase is seen. Unbiased local structure studies of the changes in V--V distances through the phase transition, using reverse Monte Carlo methods, support the idea of phase coexistence and point to the high degree of correlation in the dimerized low-temperature structure. No evidence for short range V--V correlations that would be suggestive of local dimers is found in the metallic phase.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Spirituality Within Reach: A Pathway through Meditation

Meditation is an ancient spiritual practice that has been demonstrated to be beneficial in reducing chronic pain, substance use, and eating disorders, as well as aiding in the treatment of sleep disorders, cancer, and psychological distress. In an effort to enhance the benefits, many contemporary meditation practices have been secularized, focusing on the cognitive, the psychological, and the emotional components, while de-emphasizing the spiritual aspects of meditation. However, spiritual meditation practices also demonstrate benefits, including stress reduction, improved emotional well being, increases in pain tolerance, reductions in mental health symptoms, and increased faith. However, little is known regarding the effects of different types of meditation on the reported achievement of a sense of spiritual height. Further, it is unclear whether age, gender, or months of meditation practice might be related to achieving spiritual height. The present study was specifically designed to determine whether meditation results in achieving spiritual height, and whether the rates of reportedly achieving spiritual height many times or almost always might significantly differ by various meditation types, including Transcendental Meditation (TM), Relaxation Response (RR), Mindfulness Meditation (MM), Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction (MBSR), Christian Devotion Meditation (CDM) and Other types of meditation that do not fit into these categories by analyzing an international database of meditators. Survey data (N = 965) were tested using t-tests, chi square, and logistic regression statistics at the p \u3c .05 threshold for statistical significance. Overall, 53% of the total sample reported achieving spiritual height many times or almost always during meditation, with 62% of MM practitioners reporting experiencing spiritual height many times or almost always. Additionally, one third or more of secular meditation (MBSR and RR) practitioners reported achieving spiritual height many times or almost always. Combined, these findings indicate that the clinical community needs to be aware that meditation is a viable strategy to achieve spiritual height in clients, even if the meditation is secular in nature, and that MM may provide the best odds of experiencing spiritual height during meditation. This Dissertation is available in Open Access at AURA: Antioch University Repository and Archive, http://aura.antioch.edu and OhioLink ETD Center, http://www.ohiolink.edu/etd

Spirituality Within Reach: A Pathway through Meditation

Meditation is an ancient spiritual practice that has been demonstrated to be beneficial in reducing chronic pain, substance use, and eating disorders, as well as aiding in the treatment of sleep disorders, cancer, and psychological distress. In an effort to enhance the benefits, many contemporary meditation practices have been secularized, focusing on the cognitive, the psychological, and the emotional components, while de-emphasizing the spiritual aspects of meditation. However, spiritual meditation practices also demonstrate benefits, including stress reduction, improved emotional well being, increases in pain tolerance, reductions in mental health symptoms, and increased faith. However, little is known regarding the effects of different types of meditation on the reported achievement of a sense of spiritual height. Further, it is unclear whether age, gender, or months of meditation practice might be related to achieving spiritual height. The present study was specifically designed to determine whether meditation results in achieving spiritual height, and whether the rates of reportedly achieving spiritual height many times or almost always might significantly differ by various meditation types, including Transcendental Meditation (TM), Relaxation Response (RR), Mindfulness Meditation (MM), Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction (MBSR), Christian Devotion Meditation (CDM) and Other types of meditation that do not fit into these categories by analyzing an international database of meditators. Survey data (N = 965) were tested using t-tests, chi square, and logistic regression statistics at the p \u3c .05 threshold for statistical significance. Overall, 53% of the total sample reported achieving spiritual height many times or almost always during meditation, with 62% of MM practitioners reporting experiencing spiritual height many times or almost always. Additionally, one third or more of secular meditation (MBSR and RR) practitioners reported achieving spiritual height many times or almost always. Combined, these findings indicate that the clinical community needs to be aware that meditation is a viable strategy to achieve spiritual height in clients, even if the meditation is secular in nature, and that MM may provide the best odds of experiencing spiritual height during meditation. This Dissertation is available in Open Access at AURA: Antioch University Repository and Archive, http://aura.antioch.edu and OhioLink ETD Center, http://www.ohiolink.edu/etd

Macronutrients and the risk of premenstrual syndrome

Premenstrual syndrome (PMS) affects 8-20% of reproductive-aged women, impacting work, family, and social interactions. Limitations in available PMS treatments, including side effects and limited medication efficacy, indicate the need for improved prevention. Modifiable risk factors for prevention of PMS include dietary factors. Several micronutrients have been identified as risk factors, but there has been little evaluation of macronutrients. Thus, the research aim was to examine prospectively whether macronutrient consumption was associated with PMS development among a subset of women enrolled in the Nurses’ Health Study II cohort. Chapter 1 evaluates the association of fat intake and PMS risk. Among 3,638 women, total fat intake was not associated with PMS risk, but stearic acid was associated with a 25% decrease risk of PMS. As this was the first study to observe this association, the finding needs to be replicated. Chapter 2 assesses intake of carbohydrates and PMS risk. Overall, carbohydrate intake was not associated with PMS risk but maltose was associated with a 45% increased risk of PMS. Again, this is the first study to find this and replication is needed. Chapter 3 evaluates intake of protein and PMS risk. Protein intake was not associated with PMS risk. Additionally, substitution of macronutrients for each other did not suggest that any macronutrient was importantly associated with PMS risk. In conclusion, macronutrient intake was not associated with risk of developing PMS after controlling for micronutrient intake and other potential confounders. Micronutrients may play a more important role in PMS development than macronutrient intake

A study of methanol and silicon monoxide production through episodic explosions of grain mantles in the Central Molecular Zone

Methanol (CH$_3$OH) is found to be abundant and widespread towards the Central Molecular Zone, the inner few hundred parsecs of our Galaxy. Its origin is, however, not fully understood. It was proposed that the high cosmic ray ionisation rate in this region could lead to a more efficient non-thermal desorption of this species formed on grain surfaces, but it would also mean that this species is destroyed in a relatively short timescale. In a first step, we run chemical models with a high cosmic ray ionisation rate and find that this scenario can only reproduce the lowest abundances of methanol derived in this region ($\sim$10$^{-9}$-10$^{-8}$). In a second step, we investigate another scenario based on episodic explosions of grain mantles. We find a good agreement between the predicted abundances of methanol and the observations. We find that the dominant route for the formation of methanol is through hydrogenation of CO on the grains followed by the desorption due to the grain mantle explosion. The cyclic aspect of this model can explain the widespread presence of methanol without requiring any additional mechanism. We also model silicon monoxide (SiO), another species detected in several molecular clouds of the Galactic Centre. An agreement is found with observations for a high depletion of Si (Si/H $\sim$ 10$^{-8}$) with respect to the solar abundance.Comment: Accepted in MNRA