Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location: Tropical Africa. Methods: We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate-, habitat- and human-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific range change under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Results The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human-related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Main Conclusions: Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad

Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location: Tropical Africa. Methods: We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate-, habitat- and human-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific range change under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Results: The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human-related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Main Conclusions: Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa\u27s current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad

Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

Aim: Modelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, while future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land use and human populations for (1) areas outside protected areas (PAs) only (assuming complete management effectiveness of PAs), (2) the entire study region and (3) interspecies range overlap. Location: Tropical Africa. Methods: We compiled occurrence data (n = 5,203) on African apes from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant climate-, habitat- and human-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific range change under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Results: The predictive performance of the models varied across taxa. Synergistic interactions between predictors are shaping African ape distribution, particularly human-related variables. On average across taxa, a range decline of 50% is expected outside PAs under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (61% in worst scenario). Otherwise, an 85% range reduction is predicted to occur across study regions (94% worst). However, range gains are predicted outside PAs if dispersal occurs (52% best, 21% worst), with a slight increase in gains expected across study regions (66% best, 24% worst). Moreover, more than half of range losses and gains are predicted to occur outside PAs where interspecific ranges overlap. Main Conclusions: Massive range decline is expected by 2050, but range gain is uncertain as African apes will not be able to occupy these new areas immediately due to their limited dispersal capacity, migration lag and ecological constraints. Given that most future range changes are predicted outside PAs, Africa's current PA network is likely to be insufficient for preserving suitable habitats and maintaining connected ape populations. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land use planning and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad

Targeting ocean conservation outcomes through threat reduction

Funder: Discovery and Accelerator grants from Natural Science and Engineering Research Council and the Canada Research Chair programAbstractNations have committed to reductions in the global rate of species extinctions through the Sustainable Development Goals 14 and 15, for ocean and terrestrial species, respectively. Biodiversity loss is worsening despite rapid growth in the number and extent of protected areas, both at sea and on land. Resolving this requires targeting the locations and actions that will deliver positive conservation outcomes for biodiversity. The Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric, developed by a consortium of experts, quantifies the contributions that abating threats and restoring habitats in specific places offer towards reducing extinction risk based on the IUCN Red List of Threatened SpeciesTM. STAR is now recommended as an appropriate metric by recent disclosure frameworks for companies to report their impacts on nature and STAR has seen widespread uptake within the private sector. However, it is currently only available for the terrestrial realm. We extend the coverage of the threat abatement component of the STAR metric (START), used to identify locations where positive interventions could make a large contribution to reducing global species extinction risk and where developments that increase threats to species should be mitigated, to the marine realm for 1646 marine species. Reducing unsustainable fishing provides the greatest opportunity to lower species extinction risk, comprising 43% of the marine START score. Three-quarters (75%) of the global marine START score falls entirely outside the boundaries of protected areas and only 2.7% falls within no-take protected areas. The STAR metric can be used both to guide protected area expansion and to target other actions, such as establishment and enforcement of fishing limits, to recover biodiversity.</jats:p

Targeting ocean conservation outcomes through threat reduction

Abstract Nations have committed to reductions in the global rate of species extinctions through the Sustainable Development Goals 14 and 15, for ocean and terrestrial species, respectively. Biodiversity loss is worsening despite rapid growth in the number and extent of protected areas, both at sea and on land. Resolving this requires targeting the locations and actions that will deliver positive conservation outcomes for biodiversity. The Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric, developed by a consortium of experts, quantifies the contributions that abating threats and restoring habitats in specific places offer towards reducing extinction risk based on the IUCN Red List of Threatened SpeciesTM. STAR is now recommended as an appropriate metric by recent disclosure frameworks for companies to report their impacts on nature and STAR has seen widespread uptake within the private sector. However, it is currently only available for the terrestrial realm. We extend the coverage of the threat abatement component of the STAR metric (START), used to identify locations where positive interventions could make a large contribution to reducing global species extinction risk and where developments that increase threats to species should be mitigated, to the marine realm for 1646 marine species. Reducing unsustainable fishing provides the greatest opportunity to lower species extinction risk, comprising 43% of the marine START score. Three-quarters (75%) of the global marine START score falls entirely outside the boundaries of protected areas and only 2.7% falls within no-take protected areas. The STAR metric can be used both to guide protected area expansion and to target other actions, such as establishment and enforcement of fishing limits, to recover biodiversity

Devastating Decline of Forest Elephants in Central Africa.

African forest elephants– taxonomically and functionally unique–are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002–2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced