Symmetry of evidence without evidence of symmetry

The de Finetti Theorem is a cornerstone of the Bayesian approach. Bernardo (1996) writes that its "message is very clear: if a sequence of observations is judged to be exchangeable, then any subset of them must be regarded as a random sample from some model, and there exists a prior distribution on the parameter of such model, hence requiring a Bayesian approach." We argue that while exchangeability, interpreted as symmetry of evidence, is a weak assumption, when combined with subjective expected utility theory, it implies also complete confidence that experiments are identical. When evidence is sparse, and there is little evidence of symmetry, this implication of de Finetti's hypotheses is not intuitive. This motivates our adoption of multiple-priors utility as the benchmark model of preference. We provide two alternative generalizations of the de Finetti Theorem for this framework. A model of updating is also provided.Ambiguity, exchangeability, symmetry, updating, learning, multiple-priors

Coarse contingencies and ambiguity

The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware that these contingencies are coarse---they leave out some details that may affect outcomes. Though she may not be able to describe these finer details, she is aware that they exist and this may affect her behavior.Uncertainty, states of the world, ambiguity, coarse contingencies

Coarse Contingencies

The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware that these contingencies are coarse - they leave out some details that may affect outcomes. Though she may not be able to describe these finer details, she is aware that they exist and this may affect her behavior.Unforeseen Contingencies, Ambiguity, Menu Choices

Rigidity of minimal submanifolds in hyperbolic space

We prove that if an $n$-dimensional complete minimal submanifold $M$ in hyperbolic space has sufficiently small total scalar curvature then $M$ has only one end. We also prove that for such $M$ there exist no nontrivial $L^2$ harmonic 1-forms on $M$

The D0 same-charge dimuon asymmetry and possibile new CP violation sources in the Bs−BˉsB_s-\bar{B}_s system

Recently, the D0 collaboration reported a large CP violation in the same-sign dimuon charge asymmetry which has the $3.2 \sigma$ deviation from the value estimated in the Standard Model. In this paper, several new physics models are considered: the MSSM, two Higgs doublet model, the recent dodeca model, and a new $Z'$ model. Generally, it is hard to achieve such a large CP violation consistently with other experimental constraints. We find that a scheme with extra non-anomalous U(1)$'$ gauge symmetry is barely consistent. In general, the extra $Z'$ gauge boson induces the flavor changing neutral current interactions at tree level, which is the basic reason allowing a large new physics CP violation. To preserve the U(1)$'$ symmetry at high energy, SU(2)$_L$ singlet exotic heavy quarks of mass above 1 TeV and the Standard Model gauge singlet scalars are introduced.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figure