An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator

This paper develops a small open economy model in which entrepreneurs partially finance investment using foreign currency-denominated debt subject to an external finance premium. We use Bayesian estimation techniques to evaluate the importance of balance sheet-related credit market frictions for emerging market countries by incorporating the financial accelerator mechanism. We obtain a sizable value for the external finance premium, which is tightly estimated away from zero. Our results support the inclusion of the financial accelerator in an otherwise standard model that-acting through balance sheets-magnifies the impact of shocks, thereby increasing real and financial volatility. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment

We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices. In the presence of real adjustment costs that reduce the short- and medium-term responses of oil supply and demand, our simulations can account for large endogenous variations of oil prices with large effects on the terms of trade of oil-exporting versus oil-importing countries (in particular, emerging Asia), and result in significant wealth transfers between regions. This is especially true when we consider a sustained increase in productivity growth or a shift in production technology towards more capital- (and hence oil-) intensive goods in regions such as emerging Asia. In addition, we study the implications of higher taxes on gasoline that are used to reduce taxes on labor income, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with a reduction in oil consumption.Economic models; Inflation and prices; International topics

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment

We develop a five-region version (Canada, a group of oil exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices. In the presence of real adjustment costs that reduce the short- and medium-term responses of oil supply and demand, our simulations can account for large endogenous variations of oil prices with large effects on the terms of trade of oil-exporting versus oil-importing countries (in particular, emerging Asia), and result in significant wealth transfers between regions. This is especially true when we consider a sustained increase in productivity growth or a shift in production technology towards more capital- (and hence oil-) intensive goods in regions such as emerging Asia. In addition, we study the implications of higher taxes on gasoline that are used to reduce taxes on labor income, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with a reduction in oil consumption.

Finansal Stres ve Iktisadi Faaliyet

This study examines the interaction between financial stress and economic activity across emerging markets (EMs). Episodes of financial stress can be broadly defined as periods when the financial system is under acute strain and its ability to intermediate is impaired. This study introduces a monthly composite index used to measure financial stress episodes across EMs. The study then examines the implications of domestic and external financial stress shocks on Turkish economic activity and contrasts the dynamics with that of other EMs. Quantitatively, financial stress matters. Specifically, even a temporary financial stress shock can drag industrial production substantially below trend.Financial crises, Financial stress index, Emerging market economies

How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources

The main objective of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the global economic environment and the number of Stand-By Arrangements (SBAs). The results suggest that oil prices, world interest rates, and the global business cycle are the most influential indicators that affect the number of SBAs being requested. In addition, the empirical model seems to have reasonable accuracy when predicting SBAs. Furthermore, when oil prices, interest rates, and the global business cycle are adversely shocked by one standard deviation, the conditional probability of a SBA nearly doubles, implying an increase from about six to 12 SBAs. More critically, the model suggests that even a steady deterioration of the global economic climate would imply increasingly harsher conditions for developing and emerging market countries which may in turn significantly increase the demand for IMF resources.Economic indicators;probability, current account, predictions, current account balance, credit tranches, balance of payments, statistics, credit tranche, prediction, linear trend, standard deviation, debt restructuring, independent variables, fixed effects estimator, debt service, surveys, equations, general resources account, dummy variable, sovereign debt, optimization, standard deviations, sample size, external debt, descriptive statistics, estimation procedure, debt crises, external shocks, sovereign debt crises, external debt position, reserve assets, empirical framework, repurchases, repayments, samples, imf credit outstanding, statistic, independent variable, cumulative distribution function, domestic currency, private creditors, debt relief, debt burden, external debt burden, correlation, debt problems, forecasting, current account deficits, government deficits, bilateral creditors, time series, covariance, equation, correlations, debt service obligations, debt servicing, sensitivity analysis, budget balance, debt rescheduling, international lending, logarithm, empirical model, econometrics