Bad apples or spoiled barrels? Multilevel modelling analysis of variation in high-risk prescribing in Scotland between general practitioners and between the practices they work in

Objectives: Primary care high-risk prescribing causes significant harm, but it is unclear if it is largely driven by individuals (a `bad apple' problem) or by practices having higher or lower risk prescribing cultures (a `spoiled barrel' problem). The study aimed to examine the extent of variation in high-risk prescribing between individual prescribers and between the practices they work in. Design, setting and participants: Multilevel logistic regression modelling of routine cross-sectional data from 38 Scottish general practices for 181 010 encounters between 398 general practitioners (GPs) and 26 539 patients particularly vulnerable to adverse drug events (ADEs) of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) due to age, comorbidity or coprescribing. Outcome measure: Initiation of a new NSAID prescription in an encounter between GPs and eligible patients. Results: A new high-risk NSAID was initiated in 1953 encounters (1.1% of encounters, 7.4% of patients). Older patients, those with more vulnerabilities to NSAID ADEs and those with polypharmacy were less likely to have a high-risk NSAID initiated, consistent with GPs generally recognising the risk of NSAIDs in eligible patients. Male GPs were more likely to initiate a high-risk NSAID than female GPs (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.16). After accounting for patient characteristics, 4.2% (95% CI 2.1 to 8.3) of the variation in high-risk NSAID prescribing was attributable to variation between practices, and 14.2% (95% CI 11.4 to 17.3) to variation between GPs. Three practices had statistically higher than average high-risk prescribing, but only 15.7% of GPs with higher than average high-risk prescribing and 18.5% of patients receiving such a prescription were in these practices. Conclusions: There was much more variation in high-risk prescribing between GPs than between practices, and only targeting practices with higher than average rates will miss most high-risk NSAID prescribing. Primary care prescribing safety improvement should ideally target all practices, but encourage practices to consider and act on variation between prescribers in the practice

Rectal cancer in old age –is it appropriately managed? Evidence from population-based analysis of routine data across the English national health service

Background: There is significant debate as to where to draw the line between undertreating older rectal cancer patients and minimising treatment risks. This study sought to examine the use of radical rectal cancer treatments and associated outcomes in relation to age across the English NHS. Methods: Patient, tumour and treatment characteristics for all patients diagnosed with a first primary rectal cancer in England between 1st April 2009 and 31st December 2014 were obtained from the CORECT-R data repository. Descriptive analyses and adjusted logistic regression models were undertaken to examine any association between age and the use of major resection and post-surgical outcomes. Funnel plots were used to show variation in adjusted rates of major resection. Results: The proportion of patients who underwent a major surgical resection fell from 66.5% to 31.7%, amongst those aged <70 and aged ≥80 respectively. After adjustment, 30-day post-operative mortality, failure to rescue and prolonged length of stay were significantly higher among the oldest group when compared to the youngest. Patient reported outcomes were not significantly worse amongst older patients. Significant variation was observed in adjusted surgical resection rates in the oldest patients between NHS Trusts. The probability of death due to cancer was comparable across all age groups. Conclusions: Older patients who are selected for surgery have good outcomes, often comparable to their younger counterparts. Significant variation in the treatment of older patients could not be explained by differences in measured characteristics and required further investigation

Clofazimine Inhibits Human Kv1.3 Potassium Channel by Perturbing Calcium Oscillation in T Lymphocytes

The Kv1.3 potassium channel plays an essential role in effector memory T cells and has been implicated in several important autoimmune diseases including multiple sclerosis, psoriasis and type 1 diabetes. A number of potent small molecule inhibitors of Kv1.3 channel have been reported, some of which were found to be effective in various animal models of autoimmune diseases. We report herein the identification of clofazimine, a known anti-mycobacterial drug, as a novel inhibitor of human Kv1.3. Clofazimine was initially identified as an inhibitor of intracellular T cell receptor-mediated signaling leading to the transcriptional activation of human interleukin-2 gene in T cells from a screen of the Johns Hopkins Drug Library. A systematic mechanistic deconvolution revealed that clofazimine selectively blocked the Kv1.3 channel activity, perturbing the oscillation frequency of the calcium-release activated calcium channel, which in turn led to the inhibition of the calcineurin-NFAT signaling pathway. These effects of clofazimine provide the first line of experimental evidence in support of a causal relationship between Kv1.3 and calcium oscillation in human T cells. Furthermore, clofazimine was found to be effective in blocking human T cell-mediated skin graft rejection in an animal model in vivo. Together, these results suggest that clofazimine is a promising immunomodulatory drug candidate for treating a variety of autoimmune disorders

On the Action of Cyclosporine A, Rapamycin and Tacrolimus on M. avium Including Subspecies paratuberculosis

BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) may be zoonotic. Recently the "immuno-modulators" methotrexate, azathioprine and 6-MP and the "anti-inflammatory" 5-ASA have been shown to inhibit MAP growth in vitro. We concluded that their most plausible mechanism of action is as antiMAP antibiotics. The "immunosuppressants" Cyclosporine A, Rapamycin and Tacrolimus (FK 506) treat a variety of "autoimmune" and "inflammatory" diseases. Rapamycin and Tacrolimus are macrolides. We hypothesized that their mode of action may simply be to inhibit MAP growth. METHODOLOGY: The effect on radiometric MAP (14)CO(2) growth kinetics of Cyclosporine A, Rapamycin and Tacrolimus on MAP cultured from humans (Dominic & UCF 4) or ruminants (ATCC 19698 & 303) and M. avium subspecies avium (ATCC 25291 & 101) are presented as "percent decrease in cumulative GI" (%-DeltacGI.) PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The positive control clofazimine has 99%-DeltacGI at 0.5 microg/ml (Dominic). Phthalimide, a negative control has no dose dependent inhibition on any strain. Against MAP there is dose dependent inhibition by the immunosuppressants. Cyclosporine has 97%-DeltacGI by 32 microg/ml (Dominic), Rapamycin has 74%-DeltacGI by 64 microg/ml (UCF 4) and Tacrolimus 43%-DeltacGI by 64 microg/ml (UCF 4) CONCLUSIONS: We show heretofore-undescribed inhibition of MAP growth in vitro by "immunosuppressants;" the cyclic undecapeptide Cyclosporine A, and the macrolides Rapamycin and Tacrolimus. These data are compatible with our thesis that, unknowingly, the medical profession has been treating MAP infections since 1942 when 5-ASA and subsequently azathioprine, 6-MP and methotrexate were introduced in the therapy of some "autoimmune" and "inflammatory" diseases

COVID-19 trajectories among 57 million adults in England: a cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND: Updatable estimates of COVID-19 onset, progression, and trajectories underpin pandemic mitigation efforts. To identify and characterise disease trajectories, we aimed to define and validate ten COVID-19 phenotypes from nationwide linked electronic health records (EHR) using an extensible framework. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used eight linked National Health Service (NHS) datasets for people in England alive on Jan 23, 2020. Data on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary and secondary care records, and death registrations were collected until Nov 30, 2021. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity and encompassing five categories: positive SARS-CoV-2 test, primary care diagnosis, hospital admission, ventilation modality (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). We constructed patient trajectories illustrating transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status. FINDINGS: Among 57 032 174 individuals included in the cohort, 13 990 423 COVID-19 events were identified in 7 244 925 individuals, equating to an infection rate of 12·7% during the study period. Of 7 244 925 individuals, 460 737 (6·4%) were admitted to hospital and 158 020 (2·2%) died. Of 460 737 individuals who were admitted to hospital, 48 847 (10·6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 69 090 (15·0%) received non-invasive ventilation, and 25 928 (5·6%) received invasive ventilation. Among 384 135 patients who were admitted to hospital but did not require ventilation, mortality was higher in wave 1 (23 485 [30·4%] of 77 202 patients) than wave 2 (44 220 [23·1%] of 191 528 patients), but remained unchanged for patients admitted to the ICU. Mortality was highest among patients who received ventilatory support outside of the ICU in wave 1 (2569 [50·7%] of 5063 patients). 15 486 (9·8%) of 158 020 COVID-19-related deaths occurred within 28 days of the first COVID-19 event without a COVID-19 diagnoses on the death certificate. 10 884 (6·9%) of 158 020 deaths were identified exclusively from mortality data with no previous COVID-19 phenotype recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in wave 2 than wave 1. INTERPRETATION: Our analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of disease trajectories as shown by differences in incidence, survival, and clinical pathways. We have provided a modular analytical framework that can be used to monitor the impact of the pandemic and generate evidence of clinical and policy relevance using multiple EHR sources. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, led by Health Data Research UK

A novel formulation of inhaled sodium cromoglicate (PA101) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough: a randomised, double-blind, proof-of-concept, phase 2 trial

Background Cough can be a debilitating symptom of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is difficult to treat. PA101 is a novel formulation of sodium cromoglicate delivered via a high-efficiency eFlow nebuliser that achieves significantly higher drug deposition in the lung compared with the existing formulations. We aimed to test the efficacy and safety of inhaled PA101 in patients with IPF and chronic cough and, to explore the antitussive mechanism of PA101, patients with chronic idiopathic cough (CIC) were also studied. Methods This pilot, proof-of-concept study consisted of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in patients with IPF and chronic cough and a parallel study of similar design in patients with CIC. Participants with IPF and chronic cough recruited from seven centres in the UK and the Netherlands were randomly assigned (1:1, using a computer-generated randomisation schedule) by site staff to receive PA101 (40 mg) or matching placebo three times a day via oral inhalation for 2 weeks, followed by a 2 week washout, and then crossed over to the other arm. Study participants, investigators, study staff, and the sponsor were masked to group assignment until all participants had completed the study. The primary efficacy endpoint was change from baseline in objective daytime cough frequency (from 24 h acoustic recording, Leicester Cough Monitor). The primary efficacy analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of study drug and had at least one post-baseline efficacy measurement. Safety analysis included all those who took at least one dose of study drug. In the second cohort, participants with CIC were randomly assigned in a study across four centres with similar design and endpoints. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02412020) and the EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT Number 2014-004025-40) and both cohorts are closed to new participants. Findings Between Feb 13, 2015, and Feb 2, 2016, 24 participants with IPF were randomly assigned to treatment groups. 28 participants with CIC were enrolled during the same period and 27 received study treatment. In patients with IPF, PA101 reduced daytime cough frequency by 31·1% at day 14 compared with placebo; daytime cough frequency decreased from a mean 55 (SD 55) coughs per h at baseline to 39 (29) coughs per h at day 14 following treatment with PA101, versus 51 (37) coughs per h at baseline to 52 (40) cough per h following placebo treatment (ratio of least-squares [LS] means 0·67, 95% CI 0·48–0·94, p=0·0241). By contrast, no treatment benefit for PA101 was observed in the CIC cohort; mean reduction of daytime cough frequency at day 14 for PA101 adjusted for placebo was 6·2% (ratio of LS means 1·27, 0·78–2·06, p=0·31). PA101 was well tolerated in both cohorts. The incidence of adverse events was similar between PA101 and placebo treatments, most adverse events were mild in severity, and no severe adverse events or serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation This study suggests that the mechanism of cough in IPF might be disease specific. Inhaled PA101 could be a treatment option for chronic cough in patients with IPF and warrants further investigation

CMS physics technical design report : Addendum on high density QCD with heavy ions

Peer reviewe

Determinants of recovery from post-COVID-19 dyspnoea: analysis of UK prospective cohorts of hospitalised COVID-19 patients and community-based controls

Background The risk factors for recovery from COVID-19 dyspnoea are poorly understood. We investigated determinants of recovery from dyspnoea in adults with COVID-19 and compared these to determinants of recovery from non-COVID-19 dyspnoea. Methods We used data from two prospective cohort studies: PHOSP-COVID (patients hospitalised between March 2020 and April 2021 with COVID-19) and COVIDENCE UK (community cohort studied over the same time period). PHOSP-COVID data were collected during hospitalisation and at 5-month and 1-year follow-up visits. COVIDENCE UK data were obtained through baseline and monthly online questionnaires. Dyspnoea was measured in both cohorts with the Medical Research Council Dyspnoea Scale. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify determinants associated with a reduction in dyspnoea between 5-month and 1-year follow-up. Findings We included 990 PHOSP-COVID and 3309 COVIDENCE UK participants. We observed higher odds of improvement between 5-month and 1-year follow-up among PHOSP-COVID participants who were younger (odds ratio 1.02 per year, 95% CI 1.01–1.03), male (1.54, 1.16–2.04), neither obese nor severely obese (1.82, 1.06–3.13 and 4.19, 2.14–8.19, respectively), had no pre-existing anxiety or depression (1.56, 1.09–2.22) or cardiovascular disease (1.33, 1.00–1.79), and shorter hospital admission (1.01 per day, 1.00–1.02). Similar associations were found in those recovering from non-COVID-19 dyspnoea, excluding age (and length of hospital admission). Interpretation Factors associated with dyspnoea recovery at 1-year post-discharge among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were similar to those among community controls without COVID-19. Funding PHOSP-COVID is supported by a grant from the MRC-UK Research and Innovation and the Department of Health and Social Care through the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) rapid response panel to tackle COVID-19. The views expressed in the publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Health Service (NHS), the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. COVIDENCE UK is supported by the UK Research and Innovation, the National Institute for Health Research, and Barts Charity. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funders