Irrigation Technology Adoption in the Texas High Plains: A Real Options Approach

Water scarcity has been a significant issue for several decades in the Texas High Plains, with agriculture identified as the main activity contributing to this scarcity. To address this issue, much effort has been devoted to developing and encouraging adoption of sophisticated irrigation systems with high levels of water application efficiency, such as the low energy precision application (LEPA) system, subsurface drip irrigation (SDI), and variable rate irrigation (VRI). In this study, the economic feasibility of these irrigation systems is evaluated in cotton farming in the Texas High Plains using a real options approach. Results find that only the LEPA system is profitable under current conditions. The VRI system is profitable with high cotton prices (above $0.72/lb), while SDI is not profitable under any conditions explored.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Signatures of the genuine and matter-induced components of the CP violation asymmetry in neutrino oscillations

CP asymmetries for neutrino oscillations in matter can be disentangled into the matter-induced CPT-odd (T-invariant) component and the genuine T-odd (CPT-invariant) component. For their understanding in terms of the relevant ingredients, we develop a new perturbative expansion in both $\Delta m^2_{21},\, |a| \ll |\Delta m^2_{31}|$ without any assumptions between $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and $a$, and study the subtleties of the vacuum limit in the two terms of the CP asymmetry, moving from the CPT-invariant vacuum limit $a \to 0$ to the T-invariant limit $\Delta m^2_{21} \to 0$. In the experimental region of terrestrial accelerator neutrinos, we calculate their approximate expressions from which we prove that, at medium baselines, the CPT-odd component is small and nearly $\delta$-independent, so it can be subtracted from the experimental CP asymmetry as a theoretical background, provided the hierarchy is known. At long baselines, on the other hand, we find that (i) a Hierarchy-odd term in the CPT-odd component dominates the CP asymmetry for energies above the first oscillation node, and (ii) the CPT-odd term vanishes, independent of the CP phase $\delta$, at $E =0.92~\mathrm{GeV}\,(L/1300~\mathrm{km})$ near the second oscillation maximum, where the T-odd term is almost maximal and proportional to $\sin\delta$. A measurement of the CP asymmetry in these energy regions would thus provide separate information on (i) the neutrino mass ordering, and (ii) direct evidence of genuine CP violation in the lepton sector.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures, 2 table

Dynamic regression model for hourly river level forecasting under risk situations: An application to the Ebro River

This work proposes a new statistical modelling approach to forecast the hourly river level at a gauging station, under potential flood risk situations and over a medium-term prediction horizon (around three days). For that aim we introduce a new model, the switching regression model with ARMA errors, which takes into account the serial correlation structure of the hourly level series, and the changing time delay between them. A whole modelling approach is developed, including a two-step estimation, which improves the medium-term prediction performance of the model, and uncertainty measures of the predictions. The proposed model not only provides predictions for longer periods than other statistical models, but also helps to understand the physics of the river, by characterizing the relationship between the river level in a gauging station and its influential factors. This approach is applied to forecast the Ebro River level at Zaragoza (Spain), using as input the series at Tudela. The approach has shown to be useful and the resulting model provides satisfactory hourly predictions, which can be fast and easily updated, together with their confidence intervals. The fitted model outperforms the predictions from other statistical and numerical models, specially in long prediction horizons

Latitudinal environmental niches and riverine barriers shaped the phylogeography of the central Chilean endemic Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae)

The effects of Pleistocene glaciations and geographical barriers on the phylogeographic patterns of lowland plant species in Mediterranean-climate areas of Central Chile are poorly understood. We used Dioscorea humilis (Dioscoreaceae), a dioecious geophyte extending 530 km from the Valparaíso to the Bío-Bío Regions, as a case study to disentangle the spatio-temporal evolution of populations in conjunction with latitudinal environmental changes since the Last Inter-Glacial (LIG) to the present. We used nuclear microsatellite loci, chloroplast (cpDNA) sequences and environmental niche modelling (ENM) to construct current and past scenarios from bioclimatic and geographical variables and to infer the evolutionary history of the taxa. We found strong genetic differentiation at nuclear microsatellite loci between the two subspecies of D. humilis, probably predating the LIG. Bayesian analyses of population structure revealed strong genetic differentiation of the widespread D. humilis subsp. humilis into northern and southern population groups, separated by the Maipo river. ENM revealed that the ecological niche differentiation of both groups have been maintained up to present times although their respective geographical distributions apparently fluctuated in concert with the climatic oscillations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Holocene. Genetic data revealed signatures of eastern and western postglacial expansion of the northern populations from the central Chilean depression, whereas the southern ones experienced a rapid southward expansion after the LGM. This study describes the complex evolutionary histories of lowland Mediterranean Chilean plants mediated by the summed effects of spatial isolation caused by riverine geographical barriers and the climatic changes of the Quaternary