Relationship between Transmission Intensity and Incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Thailand

An infection with dengue virus may lead to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a dangerous illness. There is no approved vaccine for this most prevalent mosquito-borne virus, which infects tens of millions (or more) people annually. Therefore, health authorities have been putting an emphasis on reduction of vector mosquitoes, genus Aedes. However, a new mathematical hypothesis predicted, quite paradoxically, that reducing Aedes mosquitoes in highly endemic countries may “increase” the incidence of DHF. To test this hypothesis based upon actual data, we compared DHF incidence collected from each of 1,000 districts in Thailand to data of Aedes abundance, which was obtained by surveying one million households. This analysis showed that reducing Aedes abundance from the highest level in Thailand to a moderate level would increase the incidence by more than 40%. In addition, we developed computer simulation software based upon the above hypothesis. The simulation predicted that epidemiological studies should be continued for a very long duration, preferably over a decade, to clearly detect such a paradoxical relationship between Aedes abundance and incidence of DHF. Such long-term studies are necessary, especially because tremendous efforts and resources have been (and perhaps will be) spent on combating Aedes