Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years

Purpose: Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic costs. Iran experiences a high incidence of road traffic injuries, leading to a significant burden on society. This study aims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030, providing valuable insights for policy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and economic costs. Methods: This analytical study utilized time series models, specifically autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict the burden of road traffic accidents by analyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until 2030. The required data related to prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling and statistical analysis packages. Results: Both prediction models, ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates (per 100,000) of all road traffic injuries, except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend, remaining at around 430, increase by 2030. Based on estimations of both models, the rates of death and DALYs due to motor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries decrease. For motor vehicle road injuries, estimated trends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 deaths. Also, for pedestrian road injuries these rates reached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths, according to the models. For cyclists and other road traffic injuries, the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 40 and approximately 6.5. Moreover, these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 0.43 and 0.07. According to the ANN model, the predicted rates of DALY and death for motorcyclists decrease to 100 and approximately 2.7, respectively. On the other hand, predictions made by the ARIMA model show a static trend, with rates remaining at 200 and approximately 3.2, respectively. Conclusion: The prevalence of road traffic injuries is predicted to increase, while the death and DALY rates of road traffic injuries show different patterns. Effective intervention programs and safety measures are necessary to prevent and reduce road traffic accidents. Different interventions should be designed and implemented specifically for different groups of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and motor vehicle drivers

Ecology of Malaria Vectors in an Endemic Area, Southeast of Iran

Background: Malaria has long been regarded as one of the most important public health issues in Iran. Although the country is now in the elimination phase, some endemic foci of malaria are still present in the southeastern areas of the country. In some endemic foci, there are no data on the malaria vectors. To fill this gap, the present study was designed to provide basic entomological data on malaria vectors in the southeastern areas of Iran. Methods: Adult and larval stages of Anopheles mosquitoes were collected by using different catch methods. Resistance of the main malaria vector in the study area to selected insecticides was evaluated using diagnostic doses advised by the World Health Organization in 2013–2014. Results: A total of 3288 larvae and 1055 adult Anopheles mosquitoes were collected, and identified as: Anopheles ste­phensi (32.1%), Anopheles culicifacies s.l. (23.4%), Anopheles dthali (23.2%), Anopheles superpictus s.l. (12.7%), and Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. (8.6%). Anopheles stephensi was the most predominant mosquito species collected indoors at the study area, with two peaks of activity in May and November. This species was found to be resistant to DDT 4%, tolerant to malathion 5% and susceptible to other tested insecticides. Conclusion: All the five malaria vectors endemic to the south of Iran were collected and identified in the study area. Our findings on the ecology and resting/feeding habitats of these malaria vectors provide information useful for plan­ning vector control program in this malarious area