Economic loss estimation for earthquake hazard in Istanbul

Natural hazards, especially earthquakes, cause disasters when they hit large settlements such as metropolitan areas. After the first shock, the damage is counted by deaths and injuries. In a while, the destroying effects of disaster appear on economic asset of the region. Direct losses including damages in buildings and lifelines can caused non-structural or indirect losses as interruption of business activities and services. Loss estimation techniques have been developed to evaluate losses from earthquakes and other natural hazards. Recently, loss estimation models have improved due to advances in information technology and have been automated using Geographic Information Systems. The aim of this paper is to find out economic effects of probable earthquake in Istanbul. In this study, damage ratios of the most probable and the worst-case earthquake scenarios have been used in order to estimate total damage cost from destruction of houses and interruption of business activities. Despite the loss estimation model does not include monetary losses in lifeline system, centers of administration, emergency services and historical assets, the findings show that future losses, caused by a severe earthquake in Marmara Sea, will exceed the total damage cost of Kocaeli earthquake in 1999.

Assessment of Seismic Risk in Istanbul

The 1999 earthquakes occurred in Turkey caused destructions in every field and level in nation wide with the high number of deaths and injuries, the remarkable rates of collapsed and heavily damaged buildings and the interruption of business activities in long-term. In the last 5 year-period, various scientific researches focusing on seismic issues have investigated the relationships among seismicity, site conditions and vulnerability. Moreover, with the co-operations of central and local governments, universities and international agencies, many comprehensive projects have been carried out, such as “A Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan for Istanbul” by Istanbul Greater Municipality - Japan International Cooperation Agency. Despite 1999 earthquakes had slight effects on Istanbul, the probability of a great earthquake (estimated to occur up to 30 years), has accelerated the attempts on risk evaluation, development of mitigation strategies, readjustment of disaster management system and so on. The primary studies on this field are focused on understanding seismicity and site conditions at large scale so that the earthquake maps produced show risky zones related to geological indicators. Aftermath of many great disasters, it has been observed that land-use decisions, demographic and economic pattern are the key components which increase or decrease the vulnerability level of settlements. In this context, the aim of this paper is to evaluate vulnerability components affecting risk levels and to explore risky zones of Istanbul. In this paper, urban and seismic indicators (i.e. site conditions, demography, land use, economy) have been aggregated and factor analysis has been used in order to reveal principal components of earthquake risk in Istanbul. According to these main factors, using cluster analysis, the critical zones of Istanbul have been indicated on urban pattern.

Effects of innovation diffusion on the development level for some European regions in the expansion period of the European Union

It is argued that innovation diffusion, in other words the movement of the new ideas or articrafts within an area over a number of time periods could become widespread once introduced in the area. After Schumpeter the role of the innovator has been significant as the inventor, as the developer or as the promoter. It is clear now that a number of economists have one thing in common that profit rates would be pushed to minimal levels in the absence of technical development. In fact, in the new theories of development concepts related to knowledge development and its diffusion take precedence. Moreover, concerning regional disparities and regional convergence issues in the European Union, it is pointed out that R&D investment in lagging areas could be the only way to avoid technology and development divergence between core and periphery. In this connection, it might be worthwhile to consider the enlargement process of the European Union with further expansion period. In this way, the objective of this article will be to find out probable effects of R&D on the development level in a five-years period (1996-2001) in order to examine the efficiency rate of innovation diffusion on the development level and to derive some theoretical and practical results.

Urban Transformation as a tool for Disaster Mitigation

Urban transformation projects are prepared with the purpose to sanitize decayed areas, to make cities beautiful and to create economic vitality. Since natural hazards threaten large metropolitan areas, urban transformation is pronounced together to mitigate disasters. This approach of urban transformation includes land use decisions related to hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis and to enhance the implementation of building codes respecting the current standards with application of urban transformation methodologies. Ideally urban transformation methodologies include not only physical and economic improvement but also provide social improvement concerning people who live in the area. Urban transformation seems to be the government’s primary tool for disaster mitigation by guiding urban development and improving the quality of housing stock in Turkey. Several attempts since 2005 to pass a bill to institutionalize this controversial strategy finally succeeded in 2010. In June, Law No. 5998, an amendment to Municipal Law No5393 of 2005, expanded item 73 on urban transformation projects to give municipalities the power to initiate Urban Transformation projects to rehabilitate urban areas or to mitigate disaster risk. According to this item in metropolitan areas, district municipalities can implement such projects within their jurisdictions with the approval of the metropolitan municipal council. Therefore Istanbul (Turkey) which is the biggest metropolitan area and waiting a big earthquake in next 30 years will be subjected to several urban transformation projects in the near future. In the paper, the urban transformation related to disaster mitigation approach will be discussed in the case of Istanbul in terms of descriptive analysis and proposals for future development.

Methods and data considerations related to the size distribution of settlements

Since Zipf, research on rank-size distribution of settlements has generally dealt with the upper tail of the distribution. Previously Turkish rank-size distribution was examined only for the upper part by Dökmeci and others. Parr had pointed on the similarity between the log-normal distribution and the rank size distribution at the upper tail. Within this paper the whole dataset of Turkish settlements (over 36.000 units) is employed for the period 1980-2000, thus, an analysis with no threshold population is undertaken. The results reveal a lognormal distribution. Furthermore the rank-size distribution from 1927 until present is also examined using a threshold of 1.000 population. With every successive census, the convex distribution of 1927 gradually evolves into a linear distribution reaching the slope of unity at the 1990’s. For recent censuses there is a point of refraction at population size 2.000 which is the threshold population for municipal incorporation and it seems that the unnatural refraction is a sign of fraud in census caused by localities over-enumerating with the aim of municipal incorporation. Another focus is on proper delimitation of boundaries of settlements in order to eliminate the possible distortion caused by administrative boundaries irrelevant to the unity of settlements. Methods applying international standards of urban area delimitation to the Turkish context, urban-rural differentiation and proper selection of threshold figures are discussed. Also definitions of administrative units (provinces, districts) and settlement units (cities, towns, villages) are given for the Turkish legal system compared with other countries.

Effects of innovation diffusion on the development level for some European regions in the expansion period of the European Union

It is argued that innovation diffusion, in other words the movement of the new ideas or articrafts within an area over a number of time periods could become widespread once introduced in the area. After Schumpeter the role of the innovator has been significant as the inventor, as the developer or as the promoter. It is clear now that a number of economists have one thing in common that profit rates would be pushed to minimal levels in the absence of technical development. In fact, in the new theories of development concepts related to knowledge development and its diffusion take precedence. Moreover, concerning regional disparities and regional convergence issues in the European Union, it is pointed out that R&D investment in lagging areas could be the only way to avoid technology and development divergence between core and periphery. In this connection, it might be worthwhile to consider the enlargement process of the European Union with further expansion period. In this way, the objective of this article will be to find out probable effects of R&D on the development level in a five-years period (1996-2001) in order to examine the efficiency rate of innovation diffusion on the development level and to derive some theoretical and practical results

Assessment of Seismic Risk in Istanbul

The 1999 earthquakes occurred in Turkey caused destructions in every field and level in nation wide with the high number of deaths and injuries, the remarkable rates of collapsed and heavily damaged buildings and the interruption of business activities in long-term. In the last 5 year-period, various scientific researches focusing on seismic issues have investigated the relationships among seismicity, site conditions and vulnerability. Moreover, with the co-operations of central and local governments, universities and international agencies, many comprehensive projects have been carried out, such as "A Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan for Istanbul” by Istanbul Greater Municipality - Japan International Cooperation Agency. Despite 1999 earthquakes had slight effects on Istanbul, the probability of a great earthquake (estimated to occur up to 30 years), has accelerated the attempts on risk evaluation, development of mitigation strategies, readjustment of disaster management system and so on. The primary studies on this field are focused on understanding seismicity and site conditions at large scale so that the earthquake maps produced show risky zones related to geological indicators. Aftermath of many great disasters, it has been observed that land-use decisions, demographic and economic pattern are the key components which increase or decrease the vulnerability level of settlements. In this context, the aim of this paper is to evaluate vulnerability components affecting risk levels and to explore risky zones of Istanbul. In this paper, urban and seismic indicators (i.e. site conditions, demography, land use, economy) have been aggregated and factor analysis has been used in order to reveal principal components of earthquake risk in Istanbul. According to these main factors, using cluster analysis, the critical zones of Istanbul have been indicated on urban pattern

Urban Transformation as a tool for Disaster Mitigation

Urban transformation projects are prepared with the purpose to sanitize decayed areas, to make cities beautiful and to create economic vitality. Since natural hazards threaten large metropolitan areas, urban transformation is pronounced together to mitigate disasters. This approach of urban transformation includes land use decisions related to hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis and to enhance the implementation of building codes respecting the current standards with application of urban transformation methodologies. Ideally urban transformation methodologies include not only physical and economic improvement but also provide social improvement concerning people who live in the area. Urban transformation seems to be the government's primary tool for disaster mitigation by guiding urban development and improving the quality of housing stock in Turkey. Several attempts since 2005 to pass a bill to institutionalize this controversial strategy finally succeeded in 2010. In June, Law No. 5998, an amendment to Municipal Law No5393 of 2005, expanded item 73 on urban transformation projects to give municipalities the power to initiate Urban Transformation projects to rehabilitate urban areas or to mitigate disaster risk. According to this item in metropolitan areas, district municipalities can implement such projects within their jurisdictions with the approval of the metropolitan municipal council. Therefore Istanbul (Turkey) which is the biggest metropolitan area and waiting a big earthquake in next 30 years will be subjected to several urban transformation projects in the near future. In the paper, the urban transformation related to disaster mitigation approach will be discussed in the case of Istanbul in terms of descriptive analysis and proposals for future development