Examining social processes with agent-based models

Additional electronic copy available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=1641430It is plain that the Austrian revival that began in the 1970s has yet to succeed in convincing the mainstream of the academy to jettison their physics-based mathematical models in favor of the sort of models and forms of argumentation that contemporary Austrians advocate. Agent-based computational modeling is still in its relative infancy but is beginning to gain recognition among economists disenchanted with the neoclassical paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to assuage concerns that readers might have regarding methodological consistency between agent-based modeling and Austrian economics and to advocate its adoption as a means to convey Austrian ideas to a wider audience. I examine models developed and published by other researchers and ultimately provide an outline of how one might develop a research agenda that leverages this technique. I argue that agent-based modeling can be used to enhance Austrian theorizing and offers a viable alternative to the neoclassical paradigm

Service in a free society

Politicians, pundits and social commentators often lament the fact that the United States has no comprehensive program for national service. Both major-party candidates in the 2008 presidential election proposed such plans, and retired Genral Stanley McChrystal recently propsed a national service program. Although McChrystal graciously acknowledges Americans' expressions of gratitude for the service and sacrifices of those in the military, he argues, "Americans performing critical, self-less service to our country are less common than they must be." Many people think tha service to one's country must mean military service. I agree with McChrystal that this interpretation is far too narrow. But if the General would only take his own advice and widen his vision of what it means to serve, he would see that literally millions of Americans diligently serve their country every day. Simply put, in a free societyt, a person who participates in the market serves his or her countrymen in an immensely powerful way

U.S. Customs and Border Protection policy routinely violates stated core values

Core values can provide important strategic functions in organizations. They can help to unify members around common goals, they can help to ensure culture evolves in a desirable manner, and they can provide guidance to individuals in the absence of input from leadership. For government organizations, such statements provide citizens and voters with information about how the agency behaves. The core values of the U.S. Customs and Border (CBP) patrol are vigilance, service to country, and integrity. In this paper, I compare these values to policies such as invasive border searches, family separations, substandard conditions at detention centers, and failure to hold agents accountable for misconduct, among others. I find that such policies routinely and egregiously violate these core values. I offer several avenues for CBP leadership and for agents to pursue in order to resolve these problems

Why We Fight: A Study of U.S. Government War-Making Propaganda

The article of record as published may be found at http://www.jstor.com/stable/26591800In this paper, we examine the extent to which officials within the U.S. government employ propaganda to influence the American public's opinion regarding going to war. We begin with a definition of propaganda as "the deliberate attempt to persuade people to think and behave in a desired way" (Taylor 1995, 6, emphasis in original), to which we add, "using means that involve either selective information or outright deception." We concentrate primarily on the public statements or actions of the president, secretary of defense, and high-ranking members of the military, though we also allow for the products of various other agencies insofar as they relate to foreign policy

Time To End Draft Registration

The article of record as published may be found at https://www.hoover.org/research/time-end-draft-registrationIn December, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter announced that the military would no longer exclude women from any occupational specialty on the basis of gender. This new policy has broad implications for the Selective Service System. Although the last draftee entered the military in 1973, nearly all young men in the United States must register with the Selective Service System to be ready in case the draft is ever reinstated

MEPS Workload Balance and Capacity Rationalization

Prepared for: U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command (USMEPCOM) 2834 Green Bay Road North Chicago, IL 60064-3091The U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command (USMEPCOM) is charged with screening all applicants for enlistment into the U.S. Armed Forces according to the qualification standards of each of the four services. These applicants are screened and processed at one of 65 Military Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) distributed throughout the United States, to include Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. Archived data exists that describes the daily work each site has experienced in the broad categories such of medical, testing, and processing. The workload between stations can vary widely, as certain sites serve areas with denser populations of applicants. The workload at each station also tends to vary according to time of year, as well as time of month. This workload variability at and between MEPS presents unique challenges for deciding on optimal capacity levels. We develop a short list of candidate locations that exhibit particularly high congestion relative to other MEPS and regions. Namely, 7th Battalion in California and 10th Battalion in Florida each contain several MEPS that rank highly with respect to relative congestion. Another regional area with substantial relative congestion includes MEPS from 4th and 12 Battalions. Finally, individual MEPS such an Minneapolis and Columbus exhibit consistent high relative congestion in the medical technician workflow, while Denver and Montgomery exhibit high congestion in the human resources workflow.U.S. Military Entrance Procession Command (2USMEPCOM) 834 Green Bay Road, North Chicago, IL 60064-3091Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

M&RA Manpower Models Modernization

NPS NRP Executive SummaryIn his planning guidance, the Commandant states "We will... accelerate our transformation from disconnected legacy systems to an integrated data architecture that treats data as it should be - a critical resource." This project is a bold step in support of that transformation for Manpower & Reserve Affairs (M&RA). M&RA possesses numerous mathematical models that support the management of the Human Resources Development Process (HRDP). Our approach will demonstrate how M&RA can leverage the latest technology in data architecture and decision support models to overcome these deficiencies. We will formulate modernized versions of models to fill the roles currently held by the Total Force Planning Model (TFPM) and the Enlisted End-Strength Planning Model (ESPM). In addition, we will formulate a model to analyze changes in structure that currently has no legacy counterpart. Finally, we will thoroughly plan and describe the data architecture in which they reside. We will answer the following questions: 1. To what extent may we integrate a group manpower models into a family of interconnected modern models that share a data architecture scheme in order to improve planning and the human-machine teaming with analysts? 2. To what extent may the answer to (1) provide a template to modernize the rest of the system?HQMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

M&RA Manpower Models Modernization

NPS NRP Technical ReportIn his planning guidance, the Commandant states "We will... accelerate our transformation from disconnected legacy systems to an integrated data architecture that treats data as it should be - a critical resource." This project is a bold step in support of that transformation for Manpower & Reserve Affairs (M&RA). M&RA possesses numerous mathematical models that support the management of the Human Resources Development Process (HRDP). Our approach will demonstrate how M&RA can leverage the latest technology in data architecture and decision support models to overcome these deficiencies. We will formulate modernized versions of models to fill the roles currently held by the Total Force Planning Model (TFPM) and the Enlisted End-Strength Planning Model (ESPM). In addition, we will formulate a model to analyze changes in structure that currently has no legacy counterpart. Finally, we will thoroughly plan and describe the data architecture in which they reside. We will answer the following questions: 1. To what extent may we integrate a group manpower models into a family of interconnected modern models that share a data architecture scheme in order to improve planning and the human-machine teaming with analysts? 2. To what extent may the answer to (1) provide a template to modernize the rest of the system?HQMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

M&RA Manpower Models Modernization

NPS NRP Project PosterIn his planning guidance, the Commandant states "We will... accelerate our transformation from disconnected legacy systems to an integrated data architecture that treats data as it should be - a critical resource." This project is a bold step in support of that transformation for Manpower & Reserve Affairs (M&RA). M&RA possesses numerous mathematical models that support the management of the Human Resources Development Process (HRDP). Our approach will demonstrate how M&RA can leverage the latest technology in data architecture and decision support models to overcome these deficiencies. We will formulate modernized versions of models to fill the roles currently held by the Total Force Planning Model (TFPM) and the Enlisted End-Strength Planning Model (ESPM). In addition, we will formulate a model to analyze changes in structure that currently has no legacy counterpart. Finally, we will thoroughly plan and describe the data architecture in which they reside. We will answer the following questions: 1. To what extent may we integrate a group manpower models into a family of interconnected modern models that share a data architecture scheme in order to improve planning and the human-machine teaming with analysts? 2. To what extent may the answer to (1) provide a template to modernize the rest of the system?HQMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA)This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

USMC Manpower Models Modernization

Prepared for: Headquarters Marine Corps, Manpower & Reserve Affairs This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). NRP Project ID: NPS-22-M205-AIn his planning guidance, the Commandant states “We will ... accelerate our transformation from disconnected legacy systems to an integrated data architecture that treats data as it should be –a critical resource.” This project is a bold step in support of that transformation for Manpower \& Reserve Affairs (M&RA), which possesses numerous mathematical models that support the management of the human resources development process (HRDP). Our approach demonstrates how M&RA can leverage the latest technology in data architecture and decision support models to overcome these deficiencies. We formulate modernized versions of models to fill the roles currently held by the Total Force Planning Model (TFPM) and the Enlisted End-Strength Planning Model (ESPM). In addition, we formulate a discrete event simulation model to analyze changes in structure that currently has no legacy counterpart. We successfully replicate the TFPM in Python and identify a number of improvements that should be made with respect to data formatting. An inability to obtain sufficiently accurate separation data prevents progress towards replication of the ESPM. Finally, we successfully implement a discrete event simulation of the manpower system. While initial validation attempts appear favorable, a more complete validation is prevented by the same inability to obtain appropriate data.Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program, Headquarters Marine Corps, Manpower & Reserve AffairsNaval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited