Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau

Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts

A Tale of Four “Carp”: Invasion Potential and Ecological Niche Modeling

. We assessed the geographic potential of four Eurasian cyprinid fishes (common carp, tench, grass carp, black carp) as invaders in North America via ecological niche modeling (ENM). These “carp” represent four stages of invasion of the continent (a long-established invader with a wide distribution, a long-established invader with a limited distribution, a spreading invader whose distribution is expanding, and a newly introduced potential invader that is not yet established), and as such illustrate the progressive reduction of distributional disequilibrium over the history of species' invasions.We used ENM to estimate the potential distributional area for each species in North America using models based on native range distribution data. Environmental data layers for native and introduced ranges were imported from state, national, and international climate and environmental databases. Models were evaluated using independent validation data on native and invaded areas. We calculated omission error for the independent validation data for each species: all native range tests were highly successful (all omission values <7%); invaded-range predictions were predictive for common and grass carp (omission values 8.8 and 19.8%, respectively). Model omission was high for introduced tench populations (54.7%), but the model correctly identified some areas where the species has been successful; distributional predictions for black carp show that large portions of eastern North America are at risk.ENMs predicted potential ranges of carp species accurately even in regions where the species have not been present until recently. ENM can forecast species' potential geographic ranges with reasonable precision and within the short screening time required by proposed U.S. invasive species legislation

Bibliography of reports on studies of the geology, hydrogeology and hydrology at the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, from 1951--1996

The Nevada Test Site (NTS) was established in 1951 as a proving ground for nuclear weapons. The site had formerly been part of an Air Force bombing and gunnery range during World War II. Sponsor-directed studies of the geology, hydrogeology, and hydrology of the NTS began about 1956 and were broad based in nature, but were related mainly to the effects of the detonation of nuclear weapons. These effects included recommending acceptable media and areas for underground tests, the possibility of off-site contamination of groundwater, air blast and surface contamination in the event of venting, ground-shock damage that could result from underground blasts, and studies in support of drilling and emplacement. The studies were both of a pure scientific nature and of a practical applied nature. The NTS was the site of 828 underground nuclear tests and 100 above-ground tests conducted between 1951 and 1992 (U.S. Department of Energy, 1994a). After July 1962, all nuclear tests conducted in the United States were underground, most of them at the NTS. The first contained underground nuclear explosion was detonated on September 19, 1957, following extensive study of the underground effect of chemical explosives. The tests were performed by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessors, the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and the Energy Research and Development Administration. As part of a nationwide complex for nuclear weapons design, testing and manufacturing, the NTS was the location for continental testing of new and stockpiled nuclear devices. Other tests, including Project {open_quotes}Plowshare{close_quotes} experiments to test the peaceful application of nuclear explosives, were conducted on several parts of the site. In addition, the Defense Nuclear Agency tested the effect of nuclear detonations on military hardware

Enhancing the Noah‐MP Ecosystem Response to Droughts With an Explicit Representation of Plant Water Storage Supplied by Dynamic Root Water Uptake

Plants are able to adapt to changing environments and thus survive droughts. However, most land surface models produce unrealistically low ecosystem resiliency to droughts, degrading the credibility of the model-predicted ecohydrological responses to climate change. We aim to enhance the Noah-MP modeled ecosystem resilience to droughts with an explicit representation of plant water storage supplied by dynamic root water uptake through hydrotropic root growth to meet the transpiration demand. The new model represents plant stomatal water stress factor as a function of the plant water storage and relates the rate of root water uptake to the profile of model-predicted root surface area. Through optimization of major leaf, root, and soil parameters, the new model improves the prediction of leaf area index, ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage variations over most basins in the contiguous United States. Sensitivity experiments suggest that both dynamic root water uptake and groundwater capillary rise extend the plants' “memory” of antecedent rainfall. The modeled plants enhance their efficiency to use antecedent rain water stored in shallow soils mainly through more efficient root water uptake over the U.S. Southwest drylands while use that stored in deep soils and aquifers with the aid of groundwater capillary rise in the Central United States. Future plant hydraulic models should not ignore soil water retention model uncertainties and the soil macropore effects on soil water potential and infiltration. ©2020. The Authors.National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationOpen access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]