Czech election preview: is Andrej Babiš heading for a Pyrrhic victory?

The Czech Republic is due to hold legislative elections on 20-21 October. As Seán Hanley explains, the election coverage has been dominated by the campaign of Andrej Babiš, whose ANO movement currently tops the polls. He writes that while parallels have been drawn between Babiš and Donald Trump, the reality is more complex than this comparison suggests, and Babiš may well find his power constrained in office even if he secures a sizeable victory in the election

Czech Eurosceptic parties are likely to be pushed to the side-lines by Andrej Babiš’s ANO movement in the upcoming European elections

The Czech Republic has traditionally been assumed to be more Eurosceptic than other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, particularly during the period in which Václav Klaus was the country’s president. Seán Hanley previews the upcoming European Parliament elections and the potential electoral fortunes of Czech Eurosceptic parties. He writes that while public opinion has hardened toward the EU, particularly in terms of support for joining the euro, the pragmatic approach of Andrej Babiš’s ANO movement is likely to receive the largest backing from the Czech electorate

Miloš Zeman’s attempt to impose a caretaker government in the Czech Republic is a fundamental challenge to Czech parliamentary democracy.

Last month, the Czech Republic’s Prime Minister Petr Nečas resigned after his chief of staff was charged with corruption and abuse of power. Seán Hanley writes that following the collapse of the Nečas government, the Czech Republic’s President, Miloš Zeman, has exploited the situation by attempting to impose a technocratic caretaker administration. He argues that Zeman’s move poses a fundamental challenge to the parliamentary character of Czech democracy

Re-stating Party Development in Central and Eastern Europe?

Two new studies, Conor O‘Dwyer‘s "Runaway State-building" and Anna Grzymała-Busse‘s "Rebuilding Leviathan", argue that in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reform of the state has been a far more protracted, complex and uneven process than might have been expected given the region’s success in democratisation and marketisation compared to other post-communist and transitional states. Indeed, although employment levels and spending in the public sector in CEE have often declined since 1989, the personnel and expenditure of central government bureaucracies across the region have expanded, often at alarming rates, with little real gain in effi ciency or capacity – a phenomenon O‘Dwyer graphically terms ‘runaway state-building’. This essay surveys the crosscutting and overlapping arguments of the two books, including their conceptualisation of the problems of state politicisation, definitions and measurement of the state administration and its effectiveness, concepts of ‘robust competition’ and empirical fi ndings. It argues that while the two books signifi cantly advance knowledge on state transformation and party-state relationships in democratising states, their sometimes contradictory fi ndings and heavy reliance on ‘robust competition’ as an explanatory variable suggest that there is considerable scope for the refi nement of comparative research in this area

The once stable Czech party system is at risk of unravelling in this week’s parliamentary elections

The Czech Republic will hold parliamentary elections on 25-26 October. Seán Hanley previews the elections, noting that a number of newly formed parties have the potential to enter the Czech parliament. These include a variety of niche and personal parties, including the anti-corruption movement ANO2011 led by Andrej Babiš, the “Czech Berlusconi”. Depending on how many of these parties pass the electoral threshold, it could prove difficult for a stable coalition government to be formed

Despite ‘winning’ the Czech parliamentary elections, the Czech Social Democrats have been firmly upstaged by Andrej Babiš

The Czech Republic held parliamentary elections on 25-26 October. Seán Hanley provides an overview of the election, which saw a disappointing result for the Czech Social Democrats (ČSSD), who received the largest number of seats, but fell well short of their target of 25 per cent of the vote. The real winners were a new party, ANO2011, who greatly exceeded expectations and only narrowly finished behind the ČSSD. The result leaves a fragmented party system, with ANO’s leader Andrej Babiš, and Czech president Miloš Zeman now arguably the country’s two most powerful figures

The spread of anti-establishment politics across Central and Eastern Europe may hold lessons for West European countries.

A number of European countries have witnessed increasing support for anti-establishment parties, most notably in Italy, where Beppe Grillo’s ‘Five Star Movement’ gained over 25 per cent of the vote in this year’s elections. Seán Hanley and Allan Sikk write that while such movements may be new to Western European politics, several anti-establishment parties have experienced similar breakthroughs in Central and Eastern European countries over the last decade. Outlining the results of a study on these parties, they formulate a typology for the conditions under which anti-establishment movements emerge

The Rise of Liberal Populism in Central and Eastern Europe? Using QCA to understand the Emergence of Anti-Establishment Reform Parties

This paper concerns a successful emerging group of parties in contemporary Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) which combine anti-establishment appeals with support for moderate reform policies. Such anti-establishment reform parties (AERPs), as we term them include the Simeon II National Movement (Bulgaria), Res Publica (Estonia), New Era (Latvia), Freedom and Solidarity (Slovakia), and TOP09 and Public Affairs (Czech Republic). Although widespread in the region, AERPs’ fortunes have varied. Some have enjoyed instant popularity and immediately gained government office, while others won limited support and remained political outsiders. In this paper we apply the two step Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) technique developed by Schneider and Wagemenn to consider the conditions for AERP (non-)breakthrough and government participation in CEE member states in the period 1998-2011. Our paper builds on the small but growing literature applying QCA to party development by using a combination of national and electoral contexts and individual parties (for government participation) as a unit of analysis. We also seek use the set theoretic logic to distinguish between sub-types of AERPs. Among explanatory conditions for AERP breakthrough we consider are levels and trends of unemployment and corruption; previous party system stability; the strength of radical populist challenges; and turnout. In our findings we identify six sufficient paths for AERP breakthrough in contemporary Central and Eastern Europe, which can be further interpreted into three broad patterns. We conclude by reviewing the implications of our findings for research on AERPs in CEE and discussing how our analysis can be broadened to include party systems iWestern Europe, where a number of similar AERP-type parties can be identified. KEY WORDS: new parties, QCA, anti-establishment politics, Central and East Europ

Foreground liberalism, background nationalism:A discursive-institutionalist account of EU leverage and ‘democratic backsliding’ in East-Central Europe

This article argues for a fresh approach to debates on democratic backsliding and European Union (EU) influence in East Central Europe (ECE), drawing on the discursive institutionalism of Vivien Schmidt. Underlying assumptions about backsliding in CEE largely reflect a set of ideas derived from the rational institutionalist and historical institutionalist schools. Moreover, the same theoretical assumptions were previously deployed to explain the apparent success of democratization and EU leverage in CEE. A discursive institutionalism perspective, stressing the role of actors and their discourses in making and unmaking institutions, suggests that democracy in CEE was always less secure than assumed. It also highlights the key role of liberal mainstream parties in embodying democratic institutions. Case studies of the liberal centre‐right in Bulgaria and social democrats in the Czech Republic highlight the way background ideas of ethnically exclusive titular states have increasingly impinged on foreground ideas of liberal pluralism