A Long-Run, Short-Run and Politico-Economic Analysis of the Welfare Costs of Inflation

This paper assesses the long-run and short-run (i.e. along the transition path) welfare implications of permanent changes in inflation in an environment with essential money and perfectly competitive markets. The model delivers a monetary distribution that matches moments of the distribution seen in the US data. Although there is potential for wealth redistribution to deliver welfare gains from inflation, the (total) costs of 10 percent inflation relative to zero is over 7 percent of consumption. While these results suggest a dominating real-balance effect of inflation, a politico-economic analysis concludes that the prevailing (majority rule) inflation rate is above the Friedman Rule.Inflation; Welfare; Transitions; Voting

Money Holdings, Inflation, and Welfare in a Competitive Market

This paper examines an environment where money is essential and agents exchange in perfectly-competitive, Walrasian markets. Agents consume and produce a homogeneous good, but hold money to purchase consumption in the event of a relatively low productivity shock. A Walrasian market delivers a non-degenerate distribution of money holdings across agents and avoids some of the computational difficulties associated with the market and pricing assumptions of bilateral matching and bargaining common to search-theoretic environments. The model is calibrated to long-run US velocity, and the welfare costs of inflation are assessed for variable buyer-seller ratios and persistent states of buying and selling.Monetary Policy, Inflation, Welfare, Walrasian Markets

Market structure and business cycles: Do nominal rigidities influence the importance of real shocks?

This paper investigates the relative importance of shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) versus the marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) in explaining cyclical variations. The literature offers contrasting results: TFP shocks are important in neoclassical environments, while relatively unimportant in neo-Keynesian environments. A model with endogenous capital utilization captures both results depending upon the degree of nominal rigidity. In the model, MEI shocks create a wedge between the nominal returns on bonds and capital. Nominal rigidities activate this wedge and place the relative importance on MEI shocks, while TFP shocks dominate when prices are perfectly flexible.Business Cycle Fluctuations; Nominal Rigidities; Exogenous Shocks

Inside Money, Credit, and Investment

This paper presents a monetary explanation for several business-cycle facts: (i) household and business investment are procyclical, (ii) business investment lags household investment, (iii) household investment is positively correlated with M1, and (iv) household credit outstanding is positively correlated with and more volatile than household investment. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that features financial intermediaries accepting deposits and providing loans, credit-producing firms, and inside (bank-created) money. It is shown that the transmission of monetary shocks facilitated by credit and inside money creation is able to reconcile these real and monetary observations regarding the cyclical behavior of investment.

The Bank Lending Channel: a FAVAR Analysis

We examine the role of commercial banks in monetary transmission in a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR). A FAVAR exploits a large number of macroeconomic indicators to identify monetary policy shocks, and we add commonly used lending aggregates and lending data at the bank level. While our results suggest that the bank lending channel (BLC) is stronger than previously thought, this feature is not robust. In addition, our results indicate a diffuse response to monetary innovations when individual banks are grouped according to asset sizes and loan components. This suggests that other bank characteristics could improve the identification of the BLC.Bank Lending Channel, FAVAR, Monetary Policy

Economies of scale in banking, confidence shocks, and business cycles

This paper quantitatively investigates equilibrium indeterminacy due to economies of scale (ES) in financial intermediation. Financial intermediation provides deposits (inside money) which can substitute with currency to purchase consumption, and depositing decisions are susceptible to non-fundamental confidence (sunspot) shocks. With the intermediation sector calibrated to match US data: (i) indeterminacy arises for small degrees of ES; (ii) sunspot shocks qualitatively resemble monetary shocks; and (iii) monetary policies can stabilize the real impact of sunspot shocks, but only under complete information. The analysis also assesses the removal of these shocks on the volatility decline observed during the US Great Moderation.Financial Intermediation, Inside Money, Indeterminacy, Business Cycles

Alternative Approaches for Project Definition: An Application of Soft Systems Methodology

Large projects such as the transition of operations from one area of an open pit mine to a new area will involve the execution of a number of sub-projects. Existing systems at Teck Coal tend to emphasize the description and control of activities. The Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is a process that can be applied to situations where resolution or improvement is required. The results of applying SSM to a specific sub project indicate that it might successfully be applied more broadly and complement current practises at Teck Resources Ltd

Economies of scale in banking, indeterminacy, and monetary policy

This paper investigates economies of scale (ES) in financial intermediation as a source of equilibrium indeterminacy. Consumption in the model can be purchased with currency and deposits, and ES in intermediation implies that deposit costs are decreasing in aggregate deposits. The results suggest that indeterminacy does not depend on a large degree of ES nor a large intermediation sector, but on monetary policy and the determination of nominal interest rates. Monetary policies not targeting nominal rates allow for indeterminacy to arise for any degree of ES, while policies targeting nominal rates eliminates indeterminacy for all degrees of ES

Economies of scale in banking, confidence shocks, and business cycles

This paper quantitatively investigates equilibrium indeterminacy due to economies of scale (ES) in financial intermediation. Financial intermediation provides deposits (inside money) which can substitute with currency to purchase consumption, and depositing decisions are susceptible to non-fundamental confidence (sunspot) shocks. With the intermediation sector calibrated to match US data: (i) indeterminacy arises for small degrees of ES; (ii) sunspot shocks qualitatively resemble monetary shocks; and (iii) monetary policies can stabilize the real impact of sunspot shocks, but only under complete information. The analysis also assesses the removal of these shocks on the volatility decline observed during the US Great Moderation

Market structure and business cycles: Do nominal rigidities influence the importance of real shocks?

This paper investigates the relative importance of shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) versus the marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) in explaining cyclical variations. The literature offers contrasting results: TFP shocks are important in neoclassical environments, while relatively unimportant in neo-Keynesian environments. A model with endogenous capital utilization captures both results depending upon the degree of nominal rigidity. In the model, MEI shocks create a wedge between the nominal returns on bonds and capital. Nominal rigidities activate this wedge and place the relative importance on MEI shocks, while TFP shocks dominate when prices are perfectly flexible