‘Arm-based’ parameterization for network meta-analysis

We present an alternative to the contrast‐based parameterization used in a number of publications for network meta‐analysis. This alternative “arm‐based” parameterization offers a number of advantages: it allows for a “long” normalized data structure that remains constant regardless of the number of comparators; it can be used to directly incorporate individual patient data into the analysis; the incorporation of multi‐arm trials is straightforward and avoids the need to generate a multivariate distribution describing treatment effects; there is a direct mapping between the parameterization and the analysis script in languages such as WinBUGS and finally, the arm‐based parameterization allows simple extension to treatment‐specific random treatment effect variances. We validated the parameterization using a published smoking cessation dataset. Network meta‐analysis using arm‐ and contrast‐based parameterizations produced comparable results (with means and standard deviations being within +/− 0.01) for both fixed and random effects models. We recommend that analysts consider using arm‐based parameterization when carrying out network meta‐analyses

Network meta-analysis on the log-hazard scale, combining count and hazard ratio statistics accounting for multi-arm trials: a tutorial.

BACKGROUND: Data on survival endpoints are usually summarised using either hazard ratio, cumulative number of events, or median survival statistics. Network meta-analysis, an extension of traditional pairwise meta-analysis, is typically based on a single statistic. In this case, studies which do not report the chosen statistic are excluded from the analysis which may introduce bias. METHODS: In this paper we present a tutorial illustrating how network meta-analyses of survival endpoints can combine count and hazard ratio statistics in a single analysis on the hazard ratio scale. We also describe methods for accounting for the correlations in relative treatment effects (such as hazard ratios) that arise in trials with more than two arms. Combination of count and hazard ratio data in a single analysis is achieved by estimating the cumulative hazard for each trial arm reporting count data. Correlation in relative treatment effects in multi-arm trials is preserved by converting the relative treatment effect estimates (the hazard ratios) to arm-specific outcomes (hazards). RESULTS: A worked example of an analysis of mortality data in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is used to illustrate the methods. The data set and WinBUGS code for fixed and random effects models are provided. CONCLUSIONS: By incorporating all data presentations in a single analysis, we avoid the potential selection bias associated with conducting an analysis for a single statistic and the potential difficulties of interpretation, misleading results and loss of available treatment comparisons associated with conducting separate analyses for different summary statistics

Influences on the Illusory Truth Effect in Consumer Judgment

The Illusory Truth Effect: Exploring Implicit and Explicit Memory Influences on Consumer JudgmentsMaria L. CronleyMiami UniversityFrank R. KardesUniversity of CincinnatiScott A. HawkinsUniversity of TorontoRepetition does not seem like a sound basis for determining truth, but researchers have consistently found that people rate repeated statements as more true than non-repeated statements. This effect is known as the illusory truth effect and appears to be quite persistent. Following on previous work in memory and judgment, additional moderators of attention, exclusion, and subliminal exposure are investigated in two experiments to assess their effects on repetition-induced beliefs of validity for product claims. Results provide new insights into the processes of incidental learning and implicit memory use by which consumers form judgments based on repetitive persuasive messages

Giving more detailed information about health insurance encourages consumers to choose compromise options

IntroductionTo investigate how the provision of additional information about the health events and procedures covered by a healthcare plan affect the level of coverage chosen by young adults taking their first full time job.MethodsUniversity students were recruited for a study at two behavioral laboratories (one located at the University of Toronto and the other located at INSEAD-Sorbonne University in Paris) in which they imagine they are making choices about the healthcare coverage associated with the taking a new job in Chicago, Illinois. Every participant made choices in four categories: Physician Care, Clinical Care, Hospital Care, and Dental Care. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: Low Detail or High Detail coverage information and they chose between three levels of coverage: Basic, Enhanced, and Superior. The study took place in March 2017 with 120 students in Toronto and 121 students in Paris.ResultsThe provision of more detailed information about the health events and procedures covered by a healthcare plan leads to a compromise effect in which participants shift their choices significantly towards Enhanced (moderate coverage) from Basic (low coverage) and Superior (high coverage). The compromise effect was observed at both locations; however, Paris participants choose significantly higher levels of coverage than Toronto participants.DiscussionProviding more detail to employees about the health events and procedures covered by a healthcare plan will increase the fraction of employees who choose the intermediate level of coverage. It is beyond the scope of this study to conclude whether this is good or bad; however, in a context where employees gravitate to either insufficient or excessive coverage, providing additional detail may reduce these tendencies

Prognostic factors and treatment-effect modifiers in spinal muscular atrophy

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a rare, progressive neuromuscular disease characterized by loss of motor neurons and muscle atrophy. Untreated infants with Type 1 SMA do not achieve major motor milestones, and death from respiratory failure typically occurs before 2 years. Individuals with Types 2 and 3 SMA exhibit milder phenotypes and have better functional and survival outcomes. Herein, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify factors that influence the prognosis of Types 1, 2 and 3 SMA. In untreated infants with Type 1 SMA, absence of symptoms at birth, a later symptom onset and a higher survival of motor neuron 2 (SMN2) copy number are all associated with increased survival. Disease duration, age at treatment initiation and, to a lesser extent, baseline function were identified as potential treatment-modifying factors for survival, emphasizing that early treatment with disease-modifying therapies (DMT) is essential in Type 1 SMA. In patients with Types 2 and 3 SMA, factors considered prognostic of changes in motor function were SMN2 copy number, age and ambulatory status. Individuals aged 6-15 years were particularly vulnerable to developing complications (scoliosis and progressive joint contractures) which negatively influence functional outcomes and may also affect the therapeutic response in patients. Age at the time of treatment initiation emerged as a treatment-effect modifier on the outcome of DMTs. Factors identified in this review should be considered prior to designing or analyzing studies in an SMA population, conducting population matching or summarizing results from different studies on the treatments for SMA

Reconstructing an historical pollination syndrome: keel flowers

Background: Keel flowers are bilaterally symmetrical, pentamerous flowers with three different petal types and reproductive organs enclosed by keel petals; generally there is also connation of floral parts such as stamens and keel petals. In this study, the evolution of keel flowers within the order Fabales is explored to investigate whether the establishment of this flower type within one of the species-rich families, the Fabaceae (Leguminosae), preceded and could have influenced the evolution of keel flowers in the Polygalaceae. We conducted molecular dating, and ancestral area and ancestral state analyses for a phylogeny constructed for 678 taxa using published matK, rbcL and trnL plastid gene regions. Results: We reveal the temporal and spatial origins of keel flowers and traits associated with pollinators, specifically floral symmetry, the presence or absence of a pentamerous corolla and three distinct petal types, the presence or absence of enclosed reproductive organs, androecium types, inflorescence types, inflorescence size, flower size, plant height and habit. Ancestral area reconstructions show that at the time keel flowers appeared in the Polygaleae, subfamily Papilionoideae of the Fabaceae was already distributed almost globally; at least eight clades of the Papilionoideae had keel flowers with a functional morphology broadly similar to the morphology of the first evolving Polygaleae flowers. Conclusions: The multiple origins of keel flowers within angiosperms likely represent convergence due to bee specialization, and therefore pollinator pressure. In the case of the Fabales, the first evolving keel flowers of Polygaleae have a functional morphology that corresponds with keel flowers of species of the Papilionoideae already present in the environment. These findings are consistent with the keel-flowered Polygaleae exploiting pollinators of keel-flowered Papilionoideae. The current study is the first to use ancestral reconstructions of traits associated with pollination to demonstrate that the multiple evolutionary origins of the keel flower pollinator syndrome in Fabales are consistent with, though do not prove, mimicry

Common ADRB2 Haplotypes Derived from 26 Polymorphic Sites Direct β2-Adrenergic Receptor Expression and Regulation Phenotypes

Background: The β2-adrenergic receptor (β2AR) is expressed on numerous cell-types including airway smooth muscle cells and cardiomyocytes. Drugs (agonists or antagonists) acting at these receptors for treatment of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and heart failure show substantial interindividual variability in response. The ADRB2 gene is polymorphic in noncoding and coding regions, but virtually all ADRB2 association studies have utilized the two common nonsynonymous coding SNPs, often reaching discrepant conclusions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We constructed the 8 common ADRB2 haplotypes derived from 26 polymorphisms in the promoter, 5′UTR, coding, and 3′UTR of the intronless ADRB2 gene. These were cloned into an expression construct lacking a vector-based promoter, so that β2AR expression was driven by its promoter, and steady state expression could be modified by polymorphisms throughout ADRB2 within a haplotype. “Whole-gene” transfections were performed with COS-7 cells and revealed 4 haplotypes with increased cell surface β2AR protein expression compared to the others. Agonist-promoted downregulation of β2AR protein expression was also haplotype-dependent, and was found to be increased for 2 haplotypes. A phylogenetic tree of the haplotypes was derived and annotated by cellular phenotypes, revealing a pattern potentially driven by expression. Conclusions/Significance: Thus for obstructive lung disease, the initial bronchodilator response from intermittent administration of β-agonist may be influenced by certain β2AR haplotypes (expression phenotypes), while other haplotypes may influence tachyphylaxis during the response to chronic therapy (downregulation phenotypes). An ideal clinical outcome of high expression and less downregulation was found for two haplotypes. Haplotypes may also affect heart failure antagonist therapy, where β2AR increase inotropy and are anti-apoptotic. The haplotype-specific expression and regulation phenotypes found in this transfection-based system suggest that the density of genetic information in the form of these haplotypes, or haplotype-clusters with similar phenotypes can potentially provide greater discrimination of phenotype in human disease and pharmacogenomic association studies

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to South Atlantic freshwater anomalies

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC in numerical models. The impact of these biases is investigated, by adding local anomaly patterns in the South Atlantic to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. The results suggest a new view on the stability of the AMOC, controlled by processes in the South Atlantic. <br/

Dynamically Driven Evolution of the Interstellar Medium in M51

Massive star formation occurs in giant molecular clouds (GMCs); an understanding of the evolution of GMCs is a prerequisite to develop theories of star formation and galaxy evolution. We report the highest-fidelity observations of the grand-design spiral galaxy M51 in carbon monoxide (CO) emission, revealing the evolution of GMCs vis-a-vis the large-scale galactic structure and dynamics. The most massive GMCs (giant molecular associations (GMAs)) are first assembled and then broken up as the gas flow through the spiral arms. The GMAs and their H_2 molecules are not fully dissociated into atomic gas as predicted in stellar feedback scenarios, but are fragmented into smaller GMCs upon leaving the spiral arms. The remnants of GMAs are detected as the chains of GMCs that emerge from the spiral arms into interarm regions. The kinematic shear within the spiral arms is sufficient to unbind the GMAs against self-gravity. We conclude that the evolution of GMCs is driven by large-scale galactic dynamics—their coagulation into GMAs is due to spiral arm streaming motions upon entering the arms, followed by fragmentation due to shear as they leave the arms on the downstream side. In M51, the majority of the gas remains molecular from arm entry through the interarm region and into the next spiral arm passage