Bayesian Semiparametric Hierarchical Empirical Likelihood Spatial Models

We introduce a general hierarchical Bayesian framework that incorporates a flexible nonparametric data model specification through the use of empirical likelihood methodology, which we term semiparametric hierarchical empirical likelihood (SHEL) models. Although general dependence structures can be readily accommodated, we focus on spatial modeling, a relatively underdeveloped area in the empirical likelihood literature. Importantly, the models we develop naturally accommodate spatial association on irregular lattices and irregularly spaced point-referenced data. We illustrate our proposed framework by means of a simulation study and through three real data examples. First, we develop a spatial Fay-Herriot model in the SHEL framework and apply it to the problem of small area estimation in the American Community Survey. Next, we illustrate the SHEL model in the context of areal data (on an irregular lattice) through the North Carolina sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) dataset. Finally, we analyze a point-referenced dataset from the North American Breeding Bird survey that considers dove counts for the state of Missouri. In all cases, we demonstrate superior performance of our model, in terms of mean squared prediction error, over standard parametric analyses.Comment: 29 pages, 3 figue

Investigation into the Genetic Provenance of Three Rare Plants with East-West Disjunction Patterns in Pennsylvania.

Rare plant conservation relies on an understanding of the natural history, biology and ecology, and real and potential threats to their populations to inform state regulations that serve to protect the species from extirpation. This work often involves extensive field surveys over several years to determine population sizes and whether those populations are seeing reductions in number of individuals necessary to maintain the genetic diversity within and between those populations. Species and populations with high genetic diversity are better equipped to withstand sudden changes to their habitats that derive from land use changes and changing climate. There are a variety of methods used to investigate population genetic diversity and next generation sequencing (NGS) methods allow for complete genomic coverage by analyzing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and allowing for an estimation of population genetic parameters such as genetic variation (FST), the inbreeding coefficient (FIS), and heterozygosity (HO) (HE). Population genomic investigations of Baptisia australis, Chasmanthium latifolium, and Erigenia bulbosa, plant species at the edge of their ranges in Pennsylvania and disjunct distributions within the state were performed for this study. All three species exhibited lower than expected heterozygosity and, with the exception of Chasmanthium, high levels of inbreeding. This information was incorporated into conservation rank status assessments and climate change vulnerability indices using the NatureServe Conservation Status Rank Calculator and the Climate Change Vulnerability Index tools. As a result, state ranks for Chasmanthium and Erigenia require formally proposed changes to the Department of Conservation of Natural Resources. Likewise, management recommendations are given as guidance on the steps likely necessary to preserve and potentially increase the genetic diversity for all species. Through these investigations, a long-term partnership between the Pennsylvania Natural Heritage Program at Western Pennsylvania Conservancy and Bucknell University was developed through which a pipeline of undergraduate and graduate students were, and will be, trained in both field-based natural heritage methods and new, innovative ways address the conservation of rare plants in Pennsylvania and beyond

Estimation and Analysis of Expenses of In-Lieu-Fee Projects that Mitigate Damage to Streams from Land Disturbance in North Carolina

As North Carolina’s economy has grown, the need to mitigate adverse impacts of land disturbance on aquatic ecosystems has also grown. When land disturbance adversely affects streams, a developer or the state’s Department of Transportation can satisfy mitigation requirements through payment of fees to the state’s Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP). EEP then manages a stream mitigation project on behalf of the responsible party. EEP has had regulatory authority to require stream mitigation for 10 years. The needs of EEP to reassess its mitigation fee and identify ways to reduce costs of the program have grown over the decade. The first objective of this study was to account for all EEP expenses of design-bid and design-bid-build projects. The second objective was to analyze the determinants of contractual expenses with a cost function. EEP has spent or committed to spend $46.34 million for 45 design-build or designbid-build projects to restore or enhance 191,374 ft. of streams. Expenses per foot have been$242.12. Given its mandate to cover expenses for stream mitigation, EEP must raise mitigation fees, especially those for urban projects, make changes to reduce project expenses, or do both. As the length of a restored or enhanced stream increases, the expenses per foot decrease. The decrease is more pronounced in undeveloped, rural areas. Thus, EEP could produce mitigation for less expense by financing fewer projects with longer reaches or by financing more projects in undeveloped, rural areas. Other states with in-lieu-fee programs for compensatory mitigation might also use these results to reduce contractual expenses.Environmental Economics and Policy,

music21: A Toolkit for Computer-Aided Musicology and Symbolic Music Data

Music21 is an object-oriented toolkit for analyzing, searching, and transforming music in symbolic (score- based) forms. The modular approach of the project allows musicians and researchers to write simple scripts rapidly and reuse them in other projects. The toolkit aims to provide powerful software tools integrated with sophisticated musical knowledge to both musicians with little programming experience (especially musicologists) and to programmers with only modest music theory skills. This paper introduces the music21 system, demonstrating how to use it and the types of problems it is well suited toward advancing. We include numerous examples of its power and flexibility, including demonstrations of graphing data and generating annotated musical scores.Seaver Institut

Interpreting the Administrative Procedure Act: A Literature Review

The modern administrative state has changed substantially since Congress enacted the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) in 1946. Yet Congress has done little to modernize the APA in those intervening seventy-seven years. That does not mean the APA has remained unchanged. Federal courts have substantially refashioned the APA’s requirements for administrative procedure and judicial review of agency action. Perhaps unsurprisingly, calls to return to either the statutory text or the original meaning (or both) have intensified in recent years. “APA originalism” projects abound. As part of the Notre Dame Law Review’s Symposium on the History of the Administrative Procedure Act and Judicial Review, this Essay provides a literature review of the competing methodologies for interpreting the APA: textualism, originalism, purposivism (or pragmatism), and a more dynamic or living approach that encourages administrative common law. This Essay concludes by embracing a middle-ground approach: The Supreme Court (and lower courts) should answer open statutory questions based on the text, structure, context, and original understanding of the APA. But when it comes to interpretive questions courts have already answered, the pull of statutory stare decisis should be quite strong, and reform to those precedents should be left largely to Congress. This approach best advances administrative law’s rule-of-law values such as predictability, reliance, stability, and the separation of powers

Seizure outcome after switching antiepileptic drugs: A matched, prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Outcomes after changing antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) have largely been studied in single cohort series. We recently reported the first study to examine this question in a controlled manner. Here we expand on these results by using a matched, prospective methodology applied to both uncontrolled and well-controlled patients taking any AED. METHODS: We reviewed all outpatient notes over a 9-month period and identified patients with focal epilepsy who were on monotherapy. We classified those who switched AEDs as case patients, with those remaining on the same drug serving as controls. We matched cases with controls for seizure status (seizure-free in the preceding 6 months or not), current AED, and number of failed AEDs. We subsequently assessed outcome 6 months later. RESULTS: Seizure-free patients who switched drug (n = 12) had a 16.7% rate of seizure recurrence at 6 months, compared to 2.8% among controls remaining on the same drug (n = 36, p = 0.11). There was a 37% remission rate among uncontrolled patients who switched drug compared to 55.6% among controls (n = 27 per group, p = 0.18). Uncontrolled patients who had previously tried more than one AED were somewhat less likely to enter remission (p = 0.057). Neither AED mechanism of action nor change in dosage impacted outcome. SIGNIFICANCE: Herein we provide further estimation of the modest risk (~14%) associated with switching AEDs in patients in remission compared to being maintained on the same regimen. Uncontrolled patients were no more likely to enter remission after a drug switch than they were after remaining on the same drug, suggesting that spontaneous changes in disease state, and not drug response, underlie remission in this population

Long-term effect of antiepileptic drug switch on serum lipids and C-reactive protein.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have shown that switching patients from inducing antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) to lamotrigine, levetiracetam, or topiramate reduces serum lipids and C-reactive protein (CRP). These studies were all of short duration, and some drugs, such as zonisamide, have not been investigated. METHODS: We recruited 41 patients taking phenytoin or carbamazepine who were being switched to zonisamide, lamotrigine, or levetiracetam. We measured serum lipids and CRP before the switch, \u3e6weeks after, and \u3e6months after. An untreated control group (n=14) underwent similar measurement. We combined these data with those of our previous investigation (n=34 patients and 16 controls) of a very similar design. RESULTS: There were no differences in outcome measures between the two inducing AEDs nor among the three noninducing AEDs. Total cholesterol (TC), atherogenic lipids, and CRP were higher under inducer treatment than in controls. All measures were elevated under inducer treatment relative to noninducer treatment, including TC (24mg/dL higher, 95% CI: 17.5-29.9, p CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that switching from inducing to noninducing AEDs produces an enduring reduction in serum lipids and CRP. These results provide further evidence that inducing AEDs may be associated with elevated vascular disease risk. These are the first vascular risk marker data in patients taking zonisamide, which shows a profile similar to that of other noninducing AEDs