When are Democracies at Risk of Democratic Decline? A Meta-Analysis of the Experimental Literature and a Conceptual Replication

Despite many experiments examining voter attitudes towards illiberal and undemocratic political behaviour, few explicitly address how and when their results meaningfully suggest that voters cannot be relied upon to protect liberal institutions and democratic procedures. How do these results correspond to verbal claims that a country case is at risk of democratic decline? While a simple meta-analysis of conjoint experiments encouragingly shows that respondents reliably punish undemocratic behaviour, it obscures an important subset of candidate contests and a central quantity of interest -- the proportion of partisan respondents who support an undemocratic copartisan candidate in the face of a pro-democratic out-party opponent. A reanalysis of like experiments shows that enough partisans in long-standing democracies defect to the out-party candidate for democratic decline to be highly unlikely. In new democracies with highly popular and electorally dominant incumbents, such as the Philippines, the proportion of partisans from the incumbent bloc remaining with their undemocratic copartisan is worryingly high. A preregistered conceptual conjoint replication from the Philippines, deployed just prior to the 2022 presidential election, shows that 67% of incumbent supporters remain loyal even when exposed to undemocratic informational treatments

Trust in scientists and their role in society across 67 countries

Scientific information is crucial for evidence-based decision-making. Public trust in science can help decision-makers act based on the best available evidence, especially during crises such as climate change or the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in recent years the epistemic authority of science has been challenged, causing concerns about low public trust in scientists. Here we interrogated these concerns with a pre-registered 67-country survey of 71,417 respondents on all inhabited continents and find that in most countries, a majority of the public trust scientists and think that scientists should be more engaged in policymaking. We further show that there is a discrepancy between the public’s perceived and desired priorities of scientific research. Moreover, we find variations between and within countries, which we explain with individual-and country-level variables,including political orientation. While these results do not show widespread lack of trust in scientists, we cannot discount the concern that lack of trust in scientists by even a small minority may affect considerations of scientific evidence in policymaking. These findings have implications for scientists and policymakers seeking to maintain and increase trust in scientists

Trust in scientists and their role in society across 67 countries

Scientific information is crucial for evidence-based decision-making. Public trust in science can help decision-makers act based on the best available evidence, especially during crises such as climate change or the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in recent years the epistemic authority of science has been challenged, causing concerns about low public trust in scientists. Here we interrogated these concerns with a pre-registered 67-country survey of 71,417 respondents on all inhabited continents and find that in most countries, a majority of the public trust scientists and think that scientists should be more engaged in policymaking. We further show that there is a discrepancy between the public’s perceived and desired priorities of scientific research. Moreover, we find variations between and within countries, which we explain with individual-and country-level variables,including political orientation. While these results do not show widespread lack of trust in scientists, we cannot discount the concern that lack of trust in scientists by even a small minority may affect considerations of scientific evidence in policymaking. These findings have implications for scientists and policymakers seeking to maintain and increase trust in scientists