Multi-model assessment identifies livestock grazing as a major contributor to variation in European Union land and water footprints

Food systems are the largest users of land and water resources worldwide. Using a multi-model approach to track food through the global trade network, we calculated the land footprint (LF) and water footprint (WF) of food consumption in the European Union (EU). We estimated the EU LF as 140–222 Mha yr−1 and WF as 569–918 km3 yr−1. These amounts are 5–7% of the global LF and 6–10% of the global WF of agriculture, with the EU representing 6% of the global population. We also calculated the global LF of livestock grazing, accounting only for grass eaten, to be 1,411–1,657 Mha yr−1, and the global LF of agriculture to be 2,809–3,014 Mha yr−1, which is about two-thirds of what the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) database reports. We discuss here the different methods for calculating the LF for livestock grazing, underscoring the need for a consistent methodology when monitoring the food LF and WF reduction goals set by the EU’s Farm To Fork Strategy.</p

Global agricultural trade and land system sustainability: Implications for ecosystem carbon storage, biodiversity, and human nutrition

Global land systems are increasingly shaped by international trade of agricultural products. An increasing number of studies have quantified the implications of agricultural trade for single different aspects of land system sustainability. Bringing together studies across different sustainability dimensions, this review inves-tigates how global agricultural trade flows have affected land systems and resulting impacts on food and nutrient availability, natural habitat conversion, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem carbon storage. We show that the effects of trade on land systems are highly heterogeneous across regions and commodities, revealing both synergies and trade-offs between improved nutrition and environmental conservation. For instance, we find that while the concentration of cereal production in North America has spared land, the increased demand for tropical products induced by trade has negatively impacted tropical ecosystems. Based on the current state of knowledge, we identify six pathways for how future research can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of how agricultural trade can positively contribute to meeting global sustainability goals

The potential to increase food system resilience by replacing feed imports with domestic food system byproducts

Many key feed commodities used in livestock and aquaculture production are highly traded in global agricultural markets. The dependence on these imported inputs may create vulnerabilities for importing countries when disturbances in global trade flows occur. Replacing feed imports with domestic food system byproducts—i.e. secondary products from crop, livestock and aquaculture processing—offers a solution to decrease trade dependency, increase food system resilience, and contribute to environmental sustainability. The potential impacts of such replacements on global food-trade patterns—and consequently on heightened self-sufficiency—remain largely unexplored. In this study, we assessed the material flows in the global feed trade at the country level and estimated the potential to replace imported feeds with more efficient use of domestic food system byproducts. We focus on three key feed groups in both livestock and aquaculture production: cereals, oilseed meals and fishmeal. We show that, at the global level, 19% of cereal, 16% of oilseed meals, and 27% of fishmeal feed imports can be replaced with domestic food system byproducts without affecting animal productivity. The high-input animal production countries in East and Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and North America show the highest potential. This study highlights the commodities and areas with the most potential to guide and inform decisions and investments to build more local and circular livestock and aquaculture production that would be more resilient to several kinds of shocks. Replacing feed imports with food system byproducts can increase food system resilience. Nevertheless, larger sustainability strategies, such as dietary change and reducing food loss and waste, should be implemented to ensure a transition towards more sustainable food systems

Multi-model assessment identifies livestock grazing as a major contributor to variation in European Union land and water footprints

Food systems are the largest users of land and water resources worldwide. Using a multi-model approach to track food through the global trade network, we calculated the land footprint (LF) and water footprint (WF) of food consumption in the European Union (EU). We estimated the EU LF as 140–222 Mha yr−1 and WF as 569–918 km3 yr−1. These amounts are 5–7% of the global LF and 6–10% of the global WF of agriculture, with the EU representing 6% of the global population. We also calculated the global LF of livestock grazing, accounting only for grass eaten, to be 1,411–1,657 Mha yr−1, and the global LF of agriculture to be 2,809–3,014 Mha yr−1, which is about two-thirds of what the Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT) database reports. We discuss here the different methods for calculating the LF for livestock grazing, underscoring the need for a consistent methodology when monitoring the food LF and WF reduction goals set by the EU’s Farm To Fork Strategy.ISSN:2662-135

Ecological stability in response to warming

That species' biological rates including metabolism, growth and feeding scale with temperature is well established from warming experiments(1). The interactive influence of these changes on population dynamics, however, remains uncertain. As a result, uncertainty about ecological stability in response under warming remains correspondingly high. In previous studies, severe consumer extinction waves in warmed microcosms(2) were explained in terms of warming-induced destabilization of population oscillations(3). Here, we show that warming stabilizes predator-prey dynamics at the risk of predator extinction. Our results are based on meta-analyses of a global database of temperature effects on metabolic and feeding rates and maximum population size that includes species of different phylogenetic groups and ecosystem types. To unravel population-level consequences we parameterized a bioenergetic predator-prey model(4) and simulated warming effects within ecological, non-evolutionary timescales. In contrast to previous studies(3), we find that warming stabilized population oscillations up to a threshold temperature, which is true for most of the possible parameter combinations. Beyond the threshold level, warming caused predator extinction due to starvation. Predictions were tested in a microbial predator-prey system. Together, our results indicate a major change in how we expect climate change to alter natural ecosystems: warming should increase population stability while undermining species diversity

Global mismatch of policy and research on drivers of biodiversity loss

The United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development calls for urgent actions to reduce global biodiversity loss. Here, we synthesize >44,000 articles published in the past decade to assess the research focus on global drivers of loss. Relative research efforts on different drivers are not well aligned with their assessed impact, and multiple driver interactions are hardly considered. Research on drivers of biodiversity loss needs urgent realignment to match predicted severity and inform policy goals

Accounting for trade in derived products when estimating European Union's role in driving deforestation

Governments across the world are increasingly seeking to ensure that the products consumed in their countries meet certain sustainability standards. However, the places of production—where major impacts occur—are often distant from the places of consumption. Physical trade models are suited to estimate the link between consumption and production impacts for individual commodities, but often ignore trade in derived products, obtained by processing primary commodities, especially for non-food products. Derived products which are manufactured using multiple primary commodities, such as shoes containing leather, rubber, as well as other textile materials, pose a special challenge for these models. This can lead to biased assessments of sustainability risks and obscure leverage points to address them. To mitigate the risk of bias, here we present an approach for assessing the importance of accounting for trade in derived products when attributing impacts. We apply the approach to trade in rubber and bovine hide products and associated deforestation to assess the coverage of relevant products included in the European Union (EU) regulation on deforestation-free products (EUDR), as well as to inform future revisions of the regulation's scope. We consider trade flows for 135 types of rubber products and 37 types of products derived from bovine hides. We find that rubber and bovine hides enter the EU at different stages of the supply chain. While natural rubber enters the EU at an early processing stage, through imports of raw natural rubber, most products derived from bovine hides enter the EU either as processed products or as consumer goods. Our results thus highlight that depending on the product, the share of total deforestation attributed to the EU's consumption could be significantly affected by choices in which derived products are accounted for. Weighting the costs and benefits of the inclusion of derived products for each commodity is therefore key to designing demand-side policies that cost-effectively and successfully address the deforestation risk associated with consumption.</p

Ecological stability in response to warming

That species' biological rates including metabolism, growth and feeding scale with temperature is well established from warming experiments(1). The interactive influence of these changes on population dynamics, however, remains uncertain. As a result, uncertainty about ecological stability in response under warming remains correspondingly high. In previous studies, severe consumer extinction waves in warmed microcosms(2) were explained in terms of warming-induced destabilization of population oscillations(3). Here, we show that warming stabilizes predator-prey dynamics at the risk of predator extinction. Our results are based on meta-analyses of a global database of temperature effects on metabolic and feeding rates and maximum population size that includes species of different phylogenetic groups and ecosystem types. To unravel population-level consequences we parameterized a bioenergetic predator-prey model(4) and simulated warming effects within ecological, non-evolutionary timescales. In contrast to previous studies(3), we find that warming stabilized population oscillations up to a threshold temperature, which is true for most of the possible parameter combinations. Beyond the threshold level, warming caused predator extinction due to starvation. Predictions were tested in a microbial predator-prey system. Together, our results indicate a major change in how we expect climate change to alter natural ecosystems: warming should increase population stability while undermining species diversity

Database of Articles used in Mazor & Doropoulos et al. (2018, Nature Ecology and Evolution)

This is a database of journals downloaded from the Web of Science from 2006-2016. These include 21 ecology and conservation journals. R package bibliometrix was used to classify papers into systems (Terrestrial, Marine, Freshwater), and into driver of biodiversity loss (Climate Change, Habitat Change, Invasive Species, Overexploitation and Pollution). <div><br></div