Learning from Minimum Entropy Queries in a Large Committee Machine

In supervised learning, the redundancy contained in random examples can be avoided by learning from queries. Using statistical mechanics, we study learning from minimum entropy queries in a large tree-committee machine. The generalization error decreases exponentially with the number of training examples, providing a significant improvement over the algebraic decay for random examples. The connection between entropy and generalization error in multi-layer networks is discussed, and a computationally cheap algorithm for constructing queries is suggested and analysed.Comment: 4 pages, REVTeX, multicol, epsf, two postscript figures. To appear in Physical Review E (Rapid Communications

Statistical Mechanics of Learning in the Presence of Outliers

Using methods of statistical mechanics, we analyse the effect of outliers on the supervised learning of a classification problem. The learning strategy aims at selecting informative examples and discarding outliers. We compare two algorithms which perform the selection either in a soft or a hard way. When the fraction of outliers grows large, the estimation errors undergo a first order phase transition.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures (minor extensions added

Review article: assessing the costs of natural hazards - state of the art and knowledge gaps

Efficiently reducing natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards. Current methods to assess these costs employ a variety of terminologies and approaches for different types of natural hazards and different impacted sectors. This may impede efforts to ascertain comprehensive and comparable cost figures. In order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management, a review of existing cost assessment approaches was undertaken. This review considers droughts, floods, coastal and Alpine hazards, and examines different cost types, namely direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and the costs of risk mitigation. This paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art cost assessment approaches and discusses key knowledge gaps. It shows that the application of cost assessments in practice is often incomplete and biased, as direct costs receive a relatively large amount of attention, while intangible and indirect effects are rarely considered. Furthermore, all parts of cost assessment entail considerable uncertainties due to insufficient or highly aggregated data sources, along with a lack of knowledge about the processes leading to damage and thus the appropriate models required. Recommendations are provided on how to reduce or handle these uncertainties by improving data sources and cost assessment methods. Further recommendations address how risk dynamics due to climate and socio-economic change can be better considered, how costs are distributed and risks transferred, and in what ways cost assessment can function as part of decision support

Design and construction of an optical test bed for LISA imaging systems and tilt-to-length coupling

The laser interferometer space antenna (LISA) is a future space-based interferometric gravitational-wave detector consisting of three spacecraft in a triangular configuration. The interferometric measurements of path length changes between satellites will be performed on optical benches in the satellites. Angular misalignments of the interfering beams couple into the length measurement and represent a significant noise source. Imaging systems will be used to reduce this tilt-to-length coupling. We designed and constructed an optical test bed to experimentally investigate tilt-to-length coupling. It consists of two separate structures, a minimal optical bench and a telescope simulator. The minimal optical bench comprises the science interferometer where the local laser is interfered with light from a remote spacecraft. In our experiment, a simulated version of this received beam is generated on the telescope simulator. The telescope simulator provides a tilting beam, a reference interferometer and an additional static beam as a phase reference. The tilting beam can either be a flat-top beam or a Gaussian beam. We avoid tilt-to-length coupling in the reference interferometer by using a small photo diode placed at an image of the beam rotation point. We show that the test bed is operational with an initial measurement of tilt-to-length coupling without imaging systems. Furthermore, we show the design of two different imaging systems whose performance will be investigated in future experiments

What (If Anything) Do Satisfaction Scores Tell Us About the Intertemporal Change in Living Conditions?

This paper looks at the information content of satisfaction scores. It is argued that the information content depends on the extent to which people adapt to living conditions in general. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), the estimation of a dynamic panel data model provides evidence that adaptation takes place within a relatively short window of time: changes in living conditions are, for the most part, absorbed by an adjustment of the adaptation level within one year. This leads to the conclusion that the information content of satisfaction scores accentuates recent changes in living conditions. Remote changes are notcaptured by the according survey questions, even if these changes have long-term impact on living conditions. The usefulness of satisfaction scores as an indicator of people's living conditions is discussed

Development and Function of Invariant Natural Killer T Cells Producing TH2- and TH17-Cytokines

Four distinct subsets of invariant natural killer T (NKT) cells are shown to differentiate in the thymus, then migrate to peripheral tissues where they retain their phenotypic and functional characteristics