Is There a Role for Producer and Consumer Subsidy Equivalents in Trade Negotiations

International Relations/Trade,

The Impact of Chinese Wheat Imports on World Prices and Trade

A.E. Res. 83.2

Crime and Circumstance: The Effects of Infant Health Shocks on Fathers' Criminal Activity

Few studies in the economics literature have linked individuals' criminal behavior to changes in their personal circumstances. Life shocks, such as natural or personal disasters, could reduce or sever a person's connections to his/her family, job, or community. With fewer connections, crime may become a more attractive option. This study addresses the question of whether an exogenous shock in life circumstances affects criminal activity. Specifically, we estimate the effects of the birth of a child with a random and serious health problem (versus the birth of a healthy infant) on the likelihood that the child's father becomes or remains involved in illegal activities. Controlling for the father's pre-birth criminal activity, we find that the shock of having a child with a serious health problem increases both the father's post-birth conviction and incarceration by 1 to 8 percentage points, depending on the measure of infant health used.

Crime and Circumstance: The Effects of Infant Health Shocks on Fathers’ Criminal Activity

Few studies in the economics literature have linked individuals’ criminal behavior to changes in their personal circumstances. Life shocks, such as natural or personal disasters, could reduce or sever a person’s connections to his/her family, job, or community. With fewer connections, crime may become a more attractive option. This study addresses the question of whether an exogenous shock in life circumstances affects criminal activity. Specifically, we estimate the effects of the birth of a child with a random and serious health problem (versus the birth of a healthy infant) on the likelihood that the child’s father becomes or remains involved in illegal activities. Controlling for the father’s pre-birth criminal activity, we find that the shock of having a child with a serious health problem increases both the father’s post-birth conviction and incarceration by 1 to 8 percentage points, depending on the measure of infant health used.

Indirect effect of financial strain on daily cortisol output through daily negative to positive affect index in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study

Daily affect is important to health and has been linked to cortisol. The combination of high negative affect and low positive affect may have a bigger impact on increasing HPA axis activity than either positive or negative affect alone. Financial strain may both dampen positive affect as well as increase negative affect, and thus provides an excellent context for understanding the associations between daily affect and cortisol. Using random effects mixed modeling with maximum likelihood estimation, we examined the relationship between self-reported financial strain and estimated mean daily cortisol level (latent cortisol variable), based on six salivary cortisol assessments throughout the day, and whether this relationship was mediated by greater daily negative to positive affect index measured concurrently in a sample of 776 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study participants. The analysis revealed that while no total direct effect existed for financial strain on cortisol, there was a significant indirect effect of high negative affect to low positive affect, linking financial strain to elevated cortisol. In this sample, the effects of financial strain on cortisol through either positive affect or negative affect alone were not significant. A combined affect index may be a more sensitive and powerful measure than either negative or positive affect alone, tapping the burden of chronic financial strain, and its effects on biology

Indirect effect of financial strain on daily cortisol output through daily negative to positive affect index in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study

Daily affect is important to health and has been linked to cortisol. The combination of high negative affect and low positive affect may have a bigger impact on increasing HPA axis activity than either positive or negative affect alone. Financial strain may both dampen positive affect as well as increase negative affect, and thus provides an excellent context for understanding the associations between daily affect and cortisol. Using random effects mixed modeling with maximum likelihood estimation, we examined the relationship between self-reported financial strain and estimated mean daily cortisol level (latent cortisol variable), based on six salivary cortisol assessments throughout the day, and whether this relationship was mediated by greater daily negative to positive affect index measured concurrently in a sample of 776 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study participants. The analysis revealed that while no total direct effect existed for financial strain on cortisol, there was a significant indirect effect of high negative affect to low positive affect, linking financial strain to elevated cortisol. In this sample, the effects of financial strain on cortisol through either positive affect or negative affect alone were not significant. A combined affect index may be a more sensitive and powerful measure than either negative or positive affect alone, tapping the burden of chronic financial strain, and its effects on biology

Electronic Health Records and Population Health Research

Adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) by clinical practices and hospitals in the US has increased substantially since 2009, and offers opportunities for population health researchers to access rich structured and unstructured clinical data on large, diverse, and geographically distributed populations. However, because EHRs are intended for clinical and administrative use, the data must be curated for effective use in research. We describe EHRs, examine their use in population health research, and compare the strengths and limitations of these applications to traditional epidemiologic methods. To date, EHR data have primarily been used to validate prior findings, to study specific diseases and population subgroups, to examine environmental and social factors and stigmatized conditions, to develop and implement predictive models, and to evaluate natural experiments. Although primary data collection may provide more reliable data and better population retention, EHR-based studies are less expensive and require less time to complete. In addition, large patient samples that can be readily identified from EHR data enable researchers to evaluate simultaneously multiple risk factors and/or outcomes while maintaining study power. In addition to current advantages, improved capture of social, behavioral, environmental, and genetic data, and use of natural language processing, clinical biobanks, and personal sensing via smartphone should further enable EHR researchers to understand complex diseases with multifactorial etiologies. Integrating emerging technologies with clinical care could lead to innovative approaches to precision public health, reduce health care spending on individuals, and directly improve population health

A Phenotype of Early Infancy Predicts Reactivity of the Amygdala in Male Adults

One of the central questions that has occupied those disciplines concerned with human development is the nature of continuities and discontinuities from birth to maturity. The amygdala plays a central role in the processing of novelty and emotion in the brain. While there is considerable variability among individuals in the reactivity of the amygdala to novel and emotional stimuli, the origin of these individual differences is not well understood. Four month old infants called high reactive (HR) demonstrate a distinctive pattern of vigorous motor activity and crying to specific unfamiliar visual, auditory, and olfactory stimuli in the laboratory. Low-reactive infants show the complementary pattern. Here we demonstrate that the HR infant phenotype predicts greater amygdalar reactivity to novel faces almost two decades later in adults. A prediction of individual differences in brain function at maturity can be made on the basis of a single behavioural assessment made in the laboratory at four months of age. This is the earliest known human behavioural phenotype that predicts individual differences in patterns of neural activity at maturity. These temperamental differences rooted in infancy may be relevant to understanding individual differences in vulnerability and resilience to clinical psychiatric disorder. Males who were HR infants showed particularly high-levels of reactivity to novel faces in the amygdala that distinguished them as adults from all other sex/temperament subgroups, suggesting that their amygdala is particularly prone to engagement by unfamiliar faces. These findings underline the importance of taking gender into account when studying the developmental neurobiology of human temperament and anxiety disorders. The genetic study of behavioral and biologic intermediate phenotypes (or “endophenotypes”) indexing anxiety-proneness offers an important alternative to examining phenotypes based on clinically-defined disorder. Because the HR phenotype is characterized by specific patterns of reactivity to elemental visual, olfactory, and auditory stimuli, well before complex social behaviors such as shyness or fearful interaction with strangers can be observed, it may be closer to underlying neurobiological mechanisms than behavioral profiles observed later in life. This possibility, together with the fact that environmental factors have less time to impact the four-month phenotype, suggests that this temperamental profile may be a fruitful target for high-risk genetic studies.Psycholog

Bringing Agriculture into the GATT: Negotiating a Framework for Action

International Relations/Trade,

Variations in Hip Shape Are Associated with Radiographic Knee Osteoarthritis : Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project

Acknowledgment We thank our funding sources, as well as the staff and participants in the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, without whom this work would not be possible. Funding was provided in part by the US National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS) K23 AR061406 (Nelson); US National Institutes of Health (NIH)/NIAMS P60AR30701 (Jordan/Renner/Schwartz); US Centers for Disease Control/Association of Schools of Public Health S043 and S3486 (Jordan/Renner); K24-AR04884, P50-AR063043, and P50-AR060752 (Lane); and NIH/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences KL2TR001109 (Golightly).Peer reviewedPostprin