Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants in Germany – The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias

Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of Germany’s immigrant population renders general conclusions on the degree of economic integration difficult. Using a rich longitudinal data-set, this paper tests for differences in economic assimilation profiles of four groups of foreign-born immigrants and ethnic Germans. The importance of time-invariant individual unobserved heterogeneity and panel attrition in determining the speed of assimilation is analysed. We find evidence for heterogeneity in the assimilation profiles for both annual earnings and unemployment probabilities. Robust assimilation profiles are found for two cohorts only. Omitted variables, systematic sample attrition and the presence of second generation immigrants in the sample influence the speed of assimilation, but do not change the overall picture.Unobserved heterogeneity, panel attrition, sample selection, fixed effects, migration

Earnings Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany: The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias

Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of Germany's immigrant population renders general conclusions on the degree of economic integration difficult. Using a rich longitudinal data-set, this paper tests for differences in economic assimilation profiles of four entry cohorts of foreign-born immigrants and ethnic Germans. The importance of time-invariant individual unobserved heterogeneity and panel attrition in determining the speed of assimilation is analysed. We find evidence for heterogeneity in the assimilation profiles and for robust assimilation profiles for two entry cohorts only. Omitted variables, systematic sample attrition and the presence of second generation immigrants in the sample influence the speed of assimilation, but do not change the overall picture.Unobserved heterogeneity, panel attrition, sample selection, fixed effects, migration

Lifecycle patterns in the socioeconomic gradient of risk preferences

We investigate which socioeconomic groups are most likely to change their risk preferences over the lifecourse using data from a nationally representative German survey and methods to separate age from cohort and period effects. Tolerance to risk drops by 0.5 SD across all socioeconomic groups from late adolescence up to age 45. From age 45 socioeconomic gradients emerge – risk tolerance continues to drop for the most disadvantaged and stabilizes for all other groups – and reach a maximum of 0.5 SD by age 65. These results matter because increased levels of risk aversion are associated with imprudent financial decisions in the event of crises

Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?

We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation to model the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty using monthly data for Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden over a period ranging from 1962 to 2004. For all three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased uncertainty affects inflation in all countries but not in the same manner. For Sweden we find a negative impact in accordance with the Holland hypothesis, whereas for Germany and the Netherlands we find the opposite in support of the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. In a sensitivity analysis we show that an arbitrary choice of the heteroskedasticity parameter influences this relationship significantly.GARCH-in-mean, Inflation, Level e¤ect, Nominal uncertainty, Power transformation.

Two Economists' Musings on the Stability of Locus of Control

Empirical studies of the role of non-cognitive skills in driving economic behavior often rely heavily on the assumption that these skills are stable over the relevant time frame. We analyze the change in a specific non-cognitive skill, i.e. locus of control, in order to directly assess the validity of this assumption. We find that short- and medium-run changes in locus of control are rather modest on average, are concentrated among the young or very old, do not appear to be related to the demographic, labor market, and health events that individuals experience, and are unlikely to be economically meaningful. Still, there is no evidence that locus of control is truly time-invariant implying that the use of lagged measures results in an errors-in-variables problem that could downward bias the estimated wage return to locus of control by as much as 50 percent. Those researchers wishing to analyze the economic consequences of non-cognitive skills should consider (i) restricting their analysis to the working-age population for whom there is little evidence of systematic change in skill levels and (ii) accounting for error in the skill measures they employ.Non-cognitive skills, locus of control, stability, measurement error, endogeneity, life events

The Stability of Big-Five Personality Traits

We use a large, nationally-representative sample of working-age adults to demonstrate that personality (as measured by the Big Five) is stable over a four-year period. Average personality changes are small and do not vary substantially across age groups. Intra-individual personality change is generally unrelated to experiencing adverse life events and is unlikely to be economically meaningful. Like other non-cognitive traits, personality can be modeled as a stable input into many economic decisions.Non-cognitive skills, Big-Five personality traits, stability

Discrete Heterogeneity in the Impact of Health Shocks on Labour Market Outcomes

Empirical evidence from the psychology literature suggests that reactions towards health shocks depend strongly on the personality trait of locus of control, which is usually unobservable to the analyst. In this paper, the role of this discrete heterogeneity in shaping the effects of health shocks on labour supply is theoretically modelled by adopting the Grossman (1972) model. Using German longitudinal data, the predictions of the theoretical model are tested with a latent class binary choice model and an alternative identification strategy.A robust result across both specifications for various definitions of locus of control, health shocks and labour market outcomes is that internals have a smaller probability of leaving the labour market after experiencing a health shock than externals.Health shocks, heterogeneity, Grossman model, finite mixture models, personality traits

Two Economists’ Musings on the Stability of Locus of Control

Empirical studies of the role of non-cognitive skills in driving economic behavior often rely heavily on the assumption that these skills are stable over the relevant time frame. We analyze the change in a specific non-cognitive skill, i.e. locus of control, in order to directly assess the validity of this assumption. We find that short- and medium-run changes in locus of control are rather modest on average, are concentrated among the young or very old, do not appear to be related to the demographic, labor market, and health events that individuals experience, and are unlikely to be economically meaningful. Still, there is no evidence that locus of control is truly time-invariant implying that the use of lagged measures results in an errors-in-variables problem that could downward bias the estimated wage return to locus of control by as much as 50 percent. Those researchers wishing to analyze the economic consequences of non-cognitive skills should consider (i) restricting their analysis to the working-age population for whom there is little evidence of systematic change in skill levels and (ii) accounting for error in the skill measures they employ.non-cognitive skills, locus of control, stability, measurement error, endogeneity, life events

Personality, well-being and the marginal utility of income: What can we learn from random coefficient models?

Fixed effects models are the gold standard in empirical well-being research, however, their applicability is limited to controlling for intercept heterogeneity and identifying effects of time-varying variables. This paper investigates the usefulness of random coefficient models in controlling for heterogeneity in well-being and the marginal utility of income, and explores whether these forms of heterogeneity depend on the Big-Five personality traits. Using unique Australian longitudinal data that have personality measures available in two time periods we show that a Mundlak-adjusted random coefficient model yields almost identical results as the fixed effects model, making it a powerful modelling alternative when interest lies in multiple forms of heterogeneity. Big-Five personality explains 10 percent of the variation in intercept heterogeneity and 6-7 percent of the variation in the marginal utility of income. For women, we suggest that the marginal utility of income is significantly linked to personality, implying important gender-differences in the expected effectiveness of financial incentives to influence behaviour

Evidence on the Long Shadow of Poor Mental Health across Three Generations

Individuals suffering from mental health problems are often severely limited in their social and economic functioning. Mental health problems can develop early in life, are frequently chronic in nature, and have an established hereditary component. The extent to which mental illness runs in families could therefore help explain the widely discussed intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic disadvantage. Using data from three generations contained in the 1970 British Cohort Study, we estimate the intergenerational correlation of mental health between mothers, their children, and their grandchildren. We find that the intergenerational correlation in mental health is about 0.2, and that the probability of feeling depressed is 63 percent higher for children whose mothers reported the same symptom 20 years earlier. Moreover, grandmother and grandchild mental health are strongly correlated, but this relationship appears to work fully through the mental health of the parent. Using grandmother mental health as an instrument for maternal mental health in a model of grandchild mental health confirms the strong intergenerational correlation. We also find that maternal and own mental health are strong predictors of adulthood socioeconomic outcomes. Even after controlling for parental socioeconomic status, own educational attainment, and own mental health (captured in childhood and adulthood), our results suggest that a one standard deviation reduction in maternal mental health reduces household income for their adult offspring by around 2 percent.intergenerational transmission, mobility, mental health, economic outcomes