On the Use of Information in Repeated Insurance Markets

We analyze the use of information in a repeated oligopolistic insurance market. To sustain collusion, insurance companies might refrain from changing their pricing schedules even if new information about risks becomes available. We therefore provide an explanation for the existence of "unused observables" that is information whic

Contract Enforcement by the Gods

We propose a theory that explains why rational agents start to believe in a causal relationship between unrelated events. Agents send and collect messages through a communication network. If they are convinced of a relationship between two events, they send messages confirming their belief with higher probability than messages contradicting it. The network aggregates this communication bias over individuals. Therefore, agents may find a strong relationship between unrelated events even if the communication bias is very small. We apply this model to an informal economy where the fear of punishment by supernatural forces prevents agents from cheating others. --Informal Contract Enforcement,Communication,Learning,Networks

On the Use of Information in Repeated Insurance Markets

We analyze the use of information in a repeated oligopolistic insurance market. To sustain collusion, insurance companies might refrain from changing their pricing schedules even if new information about risks becomes available. We therefore provide an explanation for the existence of "unused observables" that is information whichrepeated games; insurance markets; oligopoly; unused observables

Representation of property rights and credit market outcomes: Evidence from a land reform in Vietnam

This article evaluates the impact of a land certification program on credit market outcomes in rural Vietnam. We hypothesize that the representation of property increases households' participation in formal credit markets. We compare credit market outcomes for certified and non-certified households controlling for socioeconomic and geographic characteristics, and use an instrumental variable approach exploiting a partial delay in program rollout. Certified households are more likely to borrow from formal banks with a collateral-based lending policy. There is no evidence for an effect on borrowing from formal sources without such a policy. Moreover, certified households pay lower interest rates on formal loans than non-certified households on formal and informal loans. --Credit,Land reform,Vietnam

Entrepreneurial risk choice and credit market equilibria

We analyze under what condiitons credit markets are efficient in providing loans to entrepreneurs who can start a new project after previous failure. An entrepreneur of uncertain talent chooses the riskiness of her project. If banks cannot perfectly observe the risk of previous projects, two equilibria may coexist: (1) an inefficient equilibrium in which the entrepreneur undertakes a low-risk project and has no access to finance after failure; and (2) a more efficient equilibrium in which the entrepreneur undertakes high-risk projects and gets financed even after an endogenously determined number of failures.

Contract Enforcement by the Gods

We propose a theory that explains why rational agents start to believe in a causal relationship between unrelated events. Agents send and collect messages through a communication network. If they are convinced of a relationship between two events, they send messages confirming their belief with higher probability than messages contradicting it. The network aggregates this communication bias over individuals. Therefore, agents may find a strong relationship between unrelated events even if the communication bias is very small. We apply this model to an informal economy where the fear of punishment by supernatural forces prevents agents from cheating others

Unfair Incentives: A Behavioral Note on Sharecropping

We conducted a field experiment with real-life tenants in Ethiopia to test the incentive effects of fixed-wage, sharecropping, fixed-rent, and ownership contracts. The experimental task resembles a common process in agricultural production. The sharecropping contract is essentially a piece-rate scheme framed as a profit sharing agreement. The sharecropping output was about 11 percent smaller than the fixed-rent output. Surprisingly, it is statistically indistinguishable from the fixed-wage output, despite substantial piece rates. This effect is driven by real-life sharecroppers. Their sharecropping output was significantly smaller than that of non-sharecroppers, and in one region, it was even 10 percent lower than sharecroppers fixed-wage output. Based on qualitative interviews and historical accounts, we argue that our subjects dislike sharecropping contracts because of the unfair profit sharing and the controversial allocation of the land. The contractual performance may therefore depend on the perceived fairness of the incentive scheme

Equilibrium Contracts and Boundedly Rational Expectations

We study an informed-principal framework in which the principal chooses the variables the agent is aware of. The agent fits a causal model connecting these variables to the objective probability distribution. The principal may keep her unaware of some variables so that she incorrectly extrapolates how non-equilibrium actions map into outcomes. This framework captures models of contracting with unaware agents, shrouded attributes, and overconfidence in a unified manner

Pain, Precautions and Present-biased Preferences: A Theory of Health Insurance

We develop an insurance market model where consumers (i) exhibit present-biased preferences, and (ii) suffer from physical pain in case of (health-) damage. They can exert preventive effort to reduce the probability of damage. Sophisticated consumers correctly anticipate their effort and purchase full insurance. Naive consumers overestimate their future effort, purchase no insurance and end up with less effort than sophisticated ones. We allow consumers to differ in their wealth and risk preferences. Our model can explain why in some insurance markets there is a negative correlation between risk and insurance and a positive correlation between insurance and wealth

Settlement Offers

We analyze how early settlement offers affect Nash bargaining outcomes when agents are asymmetrically informed about the distribution of bargaining powers and exhibit expectations-based loss-aversion preferences. Before the start of the bargaining process, the sender has private information about the receiver’s bargaining power. His settlement offers may convey this private information so that they change the receiver’s expectations and, by loss aversion, preferences. We show that the sender can exploit this mechanism by making non-binding settlement offers, i.e., the receiver is free to accept them at any time, even after learning her true bargaining value