Home Market and Traditional Effects on Comparative Advantage in a Gravity Approach

Policy makers in "small" countries facing trade liberalisation have become concerned with the potential loss of manufacturing employment and output to "large" economies in the presence of economies of scale in production and international transport costs. This paper offers a methodology to estimate the "home market" effect for numerous industries, after accounting for transport costs and traditional comparative advantage effects. The empirical results suggest significant home-market effects in many manufacturing industries which may be capital intensive or labour intensive.Home-market effect, comparative advantage, bilateral trade, factor endowment, gravity model

Market Size and Factor Endowment: Explaining Comparative Advantage in Bilateral Trade by Differences in Income and Per Capita Income

Using a gravity-type explanation of international trade flows at the industry level, it is shown that the pattern of comparative advantage in terms of sectoral export/import ratios in bilateral trade can be explained by relative income and relative per capita income. Total income of a country is a proxy of its economic size and has a positive effect on comparative advantage in most manufacturing industries (home market effect). Per capita income represents the capital-labour endowment ratio and demand conditions. In sum, it has a positive effect in (human) capital-intensive industries and a negative effect in labour-intensive industries.Gravity model, comparative advantage, bilateral trade, home market effect, factor endowment

GRAINS AND OILSEEDS: A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

Crop Production/Industries,

Terrorism and Trade

bilateral trade flows between more than 200 countries over the period from 1960 to 1993. Applying an augmented gravity model that includes several measures of terrorism and largescale violence, we find compelling evidence that terrorist actions reduce the volume of trade; a doubling in the number of terrorist incidents is associated with a decrease in bilateral trade by about 4 percent.Terrorism; Conflict; Warfare; Trade

The Missing Globalization Puzzle: Another Explanation

This study suggests another explanation of the "missing globalization puzzle" typically observed in the empirical gravity models. In contrast to the previous research that focused on aggregated trade flows, we employ the trade flows in manufacturing products broken down by 25 three-digit ISIC Rev.2 categories. We estimate the distance coefficient using the log-linear specification of the standard as well as the generalized gravity equations. Our data set comprises trade flows for 22 OECD countries that span the time period from 1970 till 2000. We observe a substantial decline in the value of the distance elasticity in most manufacturing industries.Gravity model, missing globalization puzzle, distance coefficient

Germany Is Well Positioned for International Trade with Research-Intensive Goods

Germany is the world's biggest gross and net exporter of research-intensive goods, even ahead of the US and Japan. Per capita Germany also has the largest export surplus for research-intensive goods with around USD 3,900. Furthermore, Germany increasingly benefits as an importer - and thus as a user of technologies - from the international division of work. However, Germany's comparative advantages for research-intensive goods have declined in comparison to the middle of the 1990s. This is not due to a change in export specializations but rather to the tremendous increase in imports; this is reflected above all in the medium and low price segments where emerging markets have been catching up in research-intensive goods. After the financial market crisis had its impact on the real economy, it is now even more important to strengthen the innovative capabilities of German companies. The most important prerequisite of ensuring this is being equipped with R&D and human capital.International trade, Country and industry studies of trade, Industrialization, Manufacturing and service industries, Choice of technology

Estimating Gravity Equations: To Log or Not to Log?

This study compares two alternative approaches to estimate parameters in gravity equations. We compare the traditional OLS approach applied to the log-linear form of the gravity model with the Poisson Quasi Maximum Likelihood (PQML) estimation procedure applied to the non-linear multiplicative specification of the gravity model. We use the trade flows for all products, for all manufacturing products as well as for manufacturing products broken down by three-digit ISIC Rev.2 categories. We base our conclusions on the generalised gravity model of Bergstrand (1989) that allows us to investigate differences in factor-proportions and home-market effects at the industry level. In addition, we compare the effects of other explanatory variables such as exporter and importer total income, distance, preferential trade agreements, common border, historical ties, and common language on the volume of trade. Our study provides comprehensive evidence on likely qualitative and/or quantitative differences in the values of estimated coefficients as a result of application of an alternative estimation method. Our main conclusion is that both estimation results as well as results of the regression misspecification tests provide supporting evidence for the PQML estimation approach over the OLS estimation method.generalised gravity equation, Poisson regression

Economic, Environmental and International Trade Effects of the EU Directive on Energy Tax Harmonization

In October 2003, the European Union introduced a Directive which widens the scope of the EU's minimum taxation system from mineral oils to all energy products including coal, natural gas and electricity. It aims at reducing distortions that currently exist between Member States as well as between energy products. In addition, it increases previous minimum tax rates and thus the incentive to use energy more efficiently. The Directive will lead to changes in the energy tax schemes in a number of countries, in particular some southern Member Countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal) and most of the Eastern European EU candidate countries. In this paper, we analyze the effects of the EU energy tax harmonization with GTAP-E, a computable general equilibrium model. Particular focus is placed on the Eastern European countries which became new members of the EU in May 2004. We investigate the effects of the tax harmonization on overall economic growth and sectoral development. Special attention is paid to international trade in order to analyze if competitiveness concerns which have been forwarded in the context of energy taxation are valid. Furthermore, the effect on energy consumption and emissions and thus the contribution to the EU's climate change targets is analyzed.

Exports: Orientation Towards Emerging Markets

Nearly 60 percent of globally traded industrial goods are R&D-intensive. Two fifths are goods with very high research intensity (cutting-edge technology), while the remaining three fifths are goods with high research intensity (high-level technology).1 Up until the 1990s, the USA was the global market leader. However, since then, the situation has changed in favor of Germany and remained so despite the recent economic crisis.2 In 2009, Germany exported R&D-intensive goods amounting to USD 670 billion. The two main competitors, the USA and Japan, exported goods worth USD 561 and 388 billion respectively. The new Central and Eastern European EU member states, which increasingly focus on the production of R&D-intensive goods, reached a value of USD 189 billion altogether. The situation on the import side is reversed: Here the US market dominates with imports worth USD 756 billion, while Germany comes second with USD 430 Billion.International Trade, country and industry studies of trade, manufacturing. - industries