27 research outputs found
ElecSim: Monte-Carlo Open-Source Agent-Based Model to Inform Policy for Long-Term Electricity Planning
Due to the threat of climate change, a transition from a fossil-fuel based
system to one based on zero-carbon is required. However, this is not as simple
as instantaneously closing down all fossil fuel energy generation and replacing
them with renewable sources -- careful decisions need to be taken to ensure
rapid but stable progress. To aid decision makers, we present a new tool,
ElecSim, which is an open-sourced agent-based modelling framework used to
examine the effect of policy on long-term investment decisions in electricity
generation. ElecSim allows non-experts to rapidly prototype new ideas.
Different techniques to model long-term electricity decisions are reviewed
and used to motivate why agent-based models will become an important strategic
tool for policy. We motivate why an open-source toolkit is required for
long-term electricity planning.
Actual electricity prices are compared with our model and we demonstrate that
the use of a Monte-Carlo simulation in the system improves performance by
. Further, using ElecSim we demonstrate the effect of a carbon tax to
encourage a low-carbon electricity supply. We show how a {\pounds}40 ()
per tonne of CO2 emitted would lead to 70% renewable electricity by 2050.Comment: e-Energy '19 Proceedings of the Tenth ACM International Conference on
Future Energy System
Ekko C. Van Ierland, ed., International Environmental Economics: Theories, Models and Applications to Climate Change, International Trade and Acidification, Elsevier, 1994, ISBN 0-444-82042-6
Experiments with a methodology to model the role of R&D expenditures in energy technology learning processes; first results
Equity implications of two burden-sharing rules for stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations
International Energy Workshop: A Summary of the 1983 Poll Responses
Energy forecasting is a hazardous occupation. Virtually any projection is doomed to be incorrect. Opinions can swing from one extreme to another during a six-month period. Our paper is not intended to provide still another projection, but rather to try to explain why different individuals and organizations arrive at divergent views on the long-term energy outlook-and therefore differ on policy decisions.