Full Open Population Capture-Recapture Models with Individual Covariates

Traditional analyses of capture-recapture data are based on likelihood functions that explicitly integrate out all missing data. We use a complete data likelihood (CDL) to show how a wide range of capture-recapture models can be easily fitted using readily available software JAGS/BUGS even when there are individual-specific time-varying covariates. The models we describe extend those that condition on first capture to include abundance parameters, or parameters related to abundance, such as population size, birth rates or lifetime. The use of a CDL means that any missing data, including uncertain individual covariates, can be included in models without the need for customized likelihood functions. This approach also facilitates modeling processes of demographic interest rather than the complexities caused by non-ignorable missing data. We illustrate using two examples, (i) open population modeling in the presence of a censored time-varying individual covariate in a full robust-design, and (ii) full open population multi-state modeling in the presence of a partially observed categorical variable

Investigation of charge-transport models for organic light-emitting devices

Organic light emitting devices (OLEDs) show promise for use in the display industry, particularly as the active display portion of flat panel televisions and monitors. Unfortunately important material fundamentals of these organics are not well understood, like charge transport, charge injection and exciton formation/relaxation. It is therefore useful to attempt to understand the behavior of these materials in the physical state that they will be used in: thin films. There have been two models proposed to explain charge transport in these materials and it is the purpose of this work to examine them using a group of similar materials. These materials are similar enough to use the same theoretical models on, yet different enough to draw conclusions about those models from the observed differences

Generalized symmetry conditions at a core point

Previous analyses have shown that if a point is to be a core of a majority rule voting game in Euclidean space, when preferences are smooth, then the utility gradients at the point must satisfy certain restrictive symmetry conditions. In this paper, these results are generalized to the case of an arbitrary voting rule, and necessary and sufficient conditions, expressed in terms of the utility gradients of "pivotal" coalitions, are obtained

Structural Instability of the Core

Let σ be a q-rule, where any coalition of size q, from the society of size n, is decisive. Let w(n,q)=2q-n+1 and let W be a smooth ‘policy space’ of dimension w. Let U〖(W)〗^N be the space of all smooth profiles on W, endowed with the Whitney topology. It is shown that there exists an ‘instability dimension’ w*(σ) with 2≦w*(σ)≦w(n,q) such that: 1. (i) if w≧w*(σ), and W has no boundary, then the core of σ is empty for a dense set of profiles in U(W)N (i.e., almost always), 2. (ii) if w≧w*(σ)+1, and W has a boundary, then the core of σ is empty, almost always, 3. (iii) if w≧w*(σ)+1, then the cycle set is dense in W, almost always, 4. (iv) if w≧w*(σ)+2 then the cycle set is also path connected, almost always. The method of proof is first of all to show that if a point belongs to the core, then certain generalized symmetry conditions in terms of ‘pivotal’ coalitions of size 2q-n must be satisfied. Secondly, it is shown that these symmetry conditions can almost never be satisfied when either W has empty boundary and is of dimension w(n,q) or when W has non-empty boundary and is of dimension w(n,q)+1

Projecting the impacts of illness on labour force participation: An application of Health&WealthMOD

Health&WealthMOD is the first Australian microsimulation model designed to determine the economic impacts of disease on older workers, aged 45 to 65 years. Chronic health conditions are known to be associated with early retirement. This paper describes an application of Health&WealthMOD to estimate the impact of this association on projected labour force participation to 2020 given the ageing population and long-term trend in chronic conditions. Due to ageing and disease trends, the number of people with chronic conditions in the 45-64 years age group was expected to rise to about 4.8 million by 2020, an increase of 82% from the 2003 population of the same age group. About 904,000 persons in the 45-64 age group were projected to be out of the labour force due to ill health in 2020, when only the ageing and population growth were considered. When trends in illness were captured, the figure was increased to about 1.2 million persons. This demonstrates that health is a major driver of labour force participation and retirement and that economic policies alone, with no consideration of health interventions to treat or prevent chronic illness, will only have a limited impact on labour force participation. Thus, it is important that the government focuses on both health policies and economic policies in order to make sure that there will be an adequate supply of labour force in future.impacts of illness, labour force, participation, Health&WealthMOD

Case Studies - Health&WealthMOD: a microsimulation model of the economic impacts of diseases on older workers

The Australian Government is seeking to encourage older workers to remain in the labour force longer to overcome future labour shortages and ensure adequate taxation revenue to fund the needs of an ageing population. Longer labour force participation also has benefits to individuals in terms of available income and capacity to save for a better standard of living in retirement. While the Government recognises that not all older workers are able to participate in the labour force, there is little information on what health conditions keep people from working, or what the costs are to the government or the individual. This case study outlines how a new micro simulation model, Health&WealthMOD, is being designed to fill this information gap by estimating the economic impacts of illness. The general approach adopted is outlined, following which two early applications of the model are presented. The model is used to explore the determinants of the duration spent in retirement and to generate projections of retirement due to illness to 2020.health; disability; wealth; retirement period

Modelling the cost of ill health in Health&WealthMOD (Version II): lost labour force participation, income and taxation, and the impact of disease prevention

This paper provides a detailed description of the construction of Health&WealthMOD (Version II). It is Australia’s only microsimulation model of health and illness and their impacts on labour force participation, income, wealth and government revenue and expenditure. In this paper, we describe Health&WealthMOD (Version II) and its architecture, the application of the model, and some of the results it has produced.Health&WealthMOD, cost of ill health, lost labour force participation, income, taxation, disease prevention

Seismic wave propagation around subsurface igneous sill complexes

Acknowledgements This work was undertaken during O.G.S’s PhD at Durham University, funded by Eni through the Volcanic Margins Research Consortium (Phase 2). Seismic modelling was performed using the open source SOFI2D (Bohlen 2002) and post-processed using Seismic Un*x (Stockwell & Cohen 2012). Figures were prepared using the open source Generic Mapping Tools (GMT) (Wessel & Smith W. H. F. 1998) and Seismic Un*x. Zoeppritz amplitude coefficients were calculated using the CREWES Matlab toolbox of the University of Calgary (Margrave and Lamoureux 2019). This work made use of the facilities of the Hamilton HPC Service of Durham UniversityPeer reviewe